Steve Cardinalli’s Post

Texas cities lead the way for medium-density housing growth https://ift.tt/VzOBl2X New-home construction in the U.S. has focused on single-family and multifamily inventory growth to boost supply and affordability. But StorageCafe found that in 2023, most states overlooked one key solution to the affordability crisis: more inventory of “middle housing.” That revelation comes from a company report released earlier this week. The report used U.S. Census Bureau data to analyze housing inventory changes across 489 cities between 2005 and 2023. StorageCafe categorized inventory changes by housing type — including single-family, multifamily, middle housing, mobile homes, boats, RVs and vans. StorageCafe ranked the top cities for housing inventory expansion across single-family, multifamily and middle housing types. The ranking also incorporated data on per capita housing availability, pricing, employment and storage unit usage. StorageCafe also sorted cities based on population size, with big cities consisting of at least 250,000 residents, midsized cities of at least 100,000 people and small cities with populations below 100,000. The report draws considerable attention to middle housing inventory growth. Middle housing-type properties include duplexes, triplexes, townhomes and other medium-density housing types. StorageCafe wrote that middle housing “has often been touted as a potential solution to the affordability crisis. However, it has yet to gain significant momentum.” Nationally, middle housing grew by 11.3% from 2005 to 2023 — the lowest inventory increase among all property types. StorageCafe describes this discrepancy as the “missing middle,” and analysts blame zoning laws and rising construction costs. “Zoning laws often favor single-family homes or large apartment buildings, leaving little room for ‘in-between’ options,“ Doug Ressler, business intelligence manager at Yardi Matrix, said in the report. “Rising construction costs for materials and labor make building middle-income housing less profitable for developers, while limited land availability in urban areas adds to the challenge.“ One Texas city has something to say about that. McKinney — located in the Dallas area — had the fastest-growing middle housing inventory among the cities analyzed at 185% from 2005 to 2023. The midsized city also experienced the second-largest expansion of overall housing inventory — increasing by 127% to nearly 79,000 units. The average home price in McKinney last year was $497,700. According to StorageCafe, this expansion can be partially attributed to statewide population growth in Texas due to increased migration to the Lone Star State that is rivaled only by Arizona. Migrants are likely targeting middle homes for affordability reasons. “As a more affordable option — typically 30% cheaper per unit than single family homes — the rise in townhouses and other middle housing types is a response to demand for diverse and accessible housing...

"Madison also stands out among U.S. cities in demand for housing. In December, Madison had a 4.3% absorption rate — a measure of how quickly rental properties are being leased out — for multifamily units, the highest of any city in the country, according to CoStar, a commercial real estate database. Absorption rates measure the change in occupancy, or the rate at which apartment space is absorbed. Nashville and Salt Lake City follow with absorption rates of 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively." "Between February 2022 and February 2023, Madison posted the highest average rent increases in the United States at about 14%, according to Apartment List, which tracks housing data. The increase was smaller between February 2023 and February 2024, at 5.8%, but was exceeded only by Arlington, Virginia, a major Washington, D.C., suburb." American Planning Association - Wisconsin Chapter League of Wisconsin Municipalities City of Madison, WI Dane County City of Sun Prairie City of Middleton, Wisconsin City of Fitchburg - Wisconsin https://lnkd.in/gqKzRtUg

"Why [Invest] in Chicago's Far South?" Tuesdays Edition: Affordable Housing Per the article, "In 2022, more than 63% of renters were cost-burdened in the West Side grouping of the Austin, East Garfield Park, North Lawndale and West Garfield Park community areas, the highest share in the city. The next highest mark — nearly 62% of renters — was found in the South Side cluster of the Avalon Park, Burnside, Calumet Heights, Chatham, Pullman, Riverdale, Roseland and West Pullman communities." Unfortunately, the vast majority of affordable housing projects over the past 10 years have been no where near the areas that need them. Instead, affordable housing is an add-on to luxury housing with hopes of pulling residents from their communities into unfamiliar communities rather than building affordable housing in their communities (hopefully that made sense). On Chicago's far south side, there are only two options: get a mortgage or rent a single-family home due to the vast majority of housing typology is single-family homes. I am an advocate of owning a home to build wealth but these days obtaining a mortgage is difficult and expensive. So to create a pathway to homeownership, I am pushing to create affordable apartment living so individuals can actually save for a home. Also, as part of our Chicago Prize application, our idea was to offer a program that would save some of the tenant's rent that can be used towards their down payment. Knowing these affordable housing challenges, I have spent the last 5+ years advocating for Morgan Park Commons (www.morganparkcommons.com), which is a mixed-use and mixed-income development with over 250 units of affordable and market-rate housing, retail, recreation, and public outdoor space. As we are bringing this project to reality with an estimated ground breaking in 2025, our organization have been renovating existing single-family homes and have put forth a request to the city to build 35 new modular single-family homes on city-owned vacant lots in the area. This mixed-use and mixed-income development is one of several we are proposing for Chicago's far south side, specifically along South Halsted. We need significant investment in affordable rental housing and single-family renovations/new construction to create more inventory to reduce the cost-burden of residents living in these communities. Our residents should not have to wait for the next luxury apartment development downtown with a few affordable units mixed into it. This affordable housing challenge is preventable and significant investment is needed and not incremental. https://lnkd.in/gbKu_BTh

There is a huge volume of communication here in RI about the shortage of affordable housing. The effects are felt throughout the entire real estate sector from renters to sellers. Yet the data clearly shows that RI can't seem to get out of its way to solve this problem. Instead, there is much hand-wringing and poor policy suggestions that are proven to be ineffective(looking at you rent-control advocates). We need to collectively get off the dime and get on with inventory creation. Re-arranging the deck chairs as it were is not going to fix this. -For Sellers: The scarcity of new housing inventory has led to increased home values, benefiting sellers with higher selling prices. However, it may also limit their options to downsize or relocate within the state due to the high costs of available homes. I for one personally fall into this category. - For Buyers: The competition is fierce, with more buyers than available homes, driving up prices and making homeownership less accessible, especially for first-time buyers. High prices are pushing potential buyers to remain in or turn to the rental market. These buyers(who are forced into renting) also may be able to afford more rent than their counterparts who were never in the buying market, further driving up rental costs. Alternatively, they may be forced out of the area to look for more attractive markets and the talent pool is diminished for the workforce. - For Renters: As buyers get pushed out of the buying market, they compete for rental properties, further reducing rental inventory and driving up rental rates. This makes affordable housing even more scarce, affecting those who are already most vulnerable in the housing market. Data Highlights: - Building permits have decreased from over 7,000/year in the 1980s to under 1,200 in 2023. - The price of a single-family home has doubled in the past decade to $430,000. - Rhode Island needs 2,200 to 3,087 new housing units annually to keep up with demand. - The state faces significant challenges in increasing housing production due to local opposition and stringent regulations. This situation underscores the interconnectedness of the housing market and the urgent need for comprehensive solutions to increase housing supply and affordability. RI we need to build!

Introducing Rolling Hills: Attainable Home Ownership in Geneva NY At Cook Properties, we are proud to announce our latest development, Rolling Hills, a 130-unit community designed to provide attainable and affordable home ownership for families in Geneva NY. Priced between $175,000 and $200,000, these high-quality, energy-efficient homes are built with both comfort and sustainability in mind. With housing affordability being a key issue in today’s market, Rolling Hills is our commitment to offering real solutions. Our development features ample green space, walking paths, and a community park — all while creating homes that blend seamlessly into the natural beauty of the area. Each home is owner-occupied, combining modern convenience with a strong sense of neighborhood. Rolling Hills is more than a neighborhood — it’s part of the answer to solving the housing crisis by providing an opportunity for home ownership at a price that most can afford. This subdivision helps fill the gap in Geneva’s need for housing while maintaining quality and value. https://lnkd.in/erSMv8P3

Housing construction is double what it was in the years (2011-2015) immediately following the 2008 Housing market crash. But multifamily is still down from overall demand, and housing demand remained high. Around half of the contractors who were in business prior to the crash did not return to the market following, leaving those in the housing market to chase high single family demand that was fueled in part by low interest rates. Lack of multi family construction then led to capacity issues there that weren't super noticable until even starter housing prices and a limited resale market kept a higher percentage than in the past kept people in the rental market longer, plugging up the rental to owner pipeline by keeping more in rentals and creating a shortage which allows for owners to ask for higher rental costs. But that is only part of the story. Over the last decade Washington State has imposed stricter and more material demanding standards, esspecially in the electrical and HVAC spaces. Matched with regional permit fees, these changes tacked on anywhere from $20-50K to the single family starter home cost, and similar to any other multifamily developments, on top of the rising materials and labor costs, plus the premium builders were able to build into costs due to high overall demand (as a free market will do). High rental occupancy plus higher pricing also initiated a new conversation over rent control in the legislature, and payment freezes on rentals during the height of covid have lots of developer/investors gun shy for fear of actions that could leave them with construction debt that is harder/longer/higher interest than market standards in the past. It also doesn't help that the trends of previous generations are not being matched in current data. Retirees are holding onto their homes far longer than previous generations, which reduces the number of family-sized homes in the resale marketplace. Where once the home was considered a safe investment for every family, now groups with large amounts of cash like hedge funds have moved from buying and building apartment and other multi-family structures into the single family market, increasing the number of houses not for sale, but for rent, once again pulling away overall single-family unit purchase availability. Now, even with higher interest rate, demand remains strong in Washington, but between the various pricing conditions (including some questionable regulations on energy efficiency and carbon-footprints of building material) and higher interest rates more and more the low and middle class are being priced out, waiting for some sort of bubble to burst. What comes first, the industry chicken or the legislative egg....

⚡️ Invest in Manufactured Housing for Double-Digit Returns! The U.S. housing market is evolving, and manufactured homes are taking center stage as a solution to the affordable housing crisis. With a shortage of over 270,000 affordable rental homes in Arizona alone, investing in this sector is more relevant than ever. According to a report by the National Low Income Housing Coalition, the U.S. faces a shortage of 7.3 million affordable and available rental homes for extremely low-income renters. This gap underscores the critical need for alternative, scalable solutions like manufactured housing. As a licensed dealer in Arizona (LIC 8670), I’ve developed a Buffett-inspired strategy to buy, sell, trade, and invest in manufactured homes. This long-term, value-driven approach yields sustainable, double-digit returns and provides accessible homeownership through innovative seller-financed deals. Market Insights: Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that the average sales price of a new manufactured home is significantly lower than that of traditional site-built homes—approximately $125,000 compared to $392,000. This affordability allows investors to tap into a broader market of potential buyers while mitigating risk. Moreover, studies highlight that manufactured homes have an average appreciation rate that can match or exceed that of site-built homes in many regions, especially when positioned in desirable areas. ✅ Why Manufactured Housing? Resilient asset class that weathers economic shifts. A Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies report found that demand for affordable housing remains strong even during economic downturns. Addresses the growing demand for affordable living. The affordability crisis, driven by high pricing for single-family residences and inflation, is pushing more people to seek alternative housing solutions. Offers high returns compared to traditional real estate investments. According to FRED data, manufactured homes can yield returns upwards of 10-15% annually, depending on market conditions and financing strategies. ✅ My Investment Strategy: Community-focused, data-driven, and educational. I leverage analytics and local market data to make informed decisions and create value for both investors and homeowners. Seller-financed options to create win-win scenarios for buyers and investors, making homeownership more accessible and investments more profitable. Explore More: • https://lnkd.in/grHzMH-n: Double-digit returns for ACCREDITED INVESTORS. • MobileMailboxMoney.com: Seller-financed paper on affordable housing in AZ. • WinMobileHomes.com: Invest in manufactured housing with seller finance (LIC 8670). • StudioCaptions.com: Marketing strategies for investors/agents to build better brands. Join me in capitalizing on this proven strategy #ManufacturedHousing #RealEstateInvesting #WarrenBuffettStrategy #AffordableHousing #DoubleDigitReturns #ArizonaRealEstate #SellerFinance #InvestSmart

CNN — Anyone with half an eye on the housing market over the last two decades will know that in many countries, not least the United States, it’s become much more difficult to buy a home. But a new report sums up the feeling of many potential home buyers by creating a category that labels some major cities as “impossibly unaffordable.” US cities on the West Coast and Hawaii occupied five of the top 10 most unaffordable places, according to the annual Demographic International Housing Affordability report, which has been tracking house prices for 20 years. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the most expensive US cities to buy home are in California, where San Jose, Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego have all made the top 10. The Hawaiian capital of Honolulu also rates a mention in sixth place of 94 major markets surveyed in eight countries. Australia is the only other country besides the US to dominate the “impossibly unaffordable” list, led by Sydney and the southern cities of Melbourne in Victoria and Adelaide in South Australia. The report measures affordability using a price-to-income ratio of the median house price divided by the gross median household income. It links the rise in working from home during the pandemic to a “demand shock” for houses outside city centers, which have more outside space. But it also blames soaring house prices on land use policies, including “urban containment,” a kind of planning designed to stop urban sprawl. “The middle-class is under siege principally due to the escalation of land costs. As land has been rationed in an effort to curb urban sprawl, the excess of demand over supply has driven prices up,” the report said. Prices were driven up even further as investors jumped into the market to make a profit. One solution, the report’s author wrote, is to look to New Zealand. In an opinion piece for Canada’s Financial Post, Wendell Cox, a senior fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, advocated for Canada, in particular, to follow New Zealand’s lead and free up more land for immediate development. Both Vancouver and Toronto made the list of the cities that are “impossibly unaffordable.” Cox points to a policy, “Going for Housing Growth,” introduced by New Zealand’s coalition government that requires local authorities to immediately zone for 30 years of housing growth. “Toronto and Vancouver show that the cost of taming expansion is unacceptably high: inflated house prices, higher rents and, for increasing numbers of people, poverty,” Cox wrote. For those who can’t wait for a change in policy or for demand to fall, the report also identifies the most affordable cities of the 94 surveyed worldwide. They are Pittsburgh, Rochester and St Louis in the US; Edmonton and Calgary in Canada; Blackpool, Lancashire and Glasgow in the United Kingdom; and Perth and Brisbane in Australia.

Affordable Housing Week in Atlanta and Our Role in It As the City of Atlanta kicks off its Affordable Housing Week, I wanted to share some thoughts about what this means for our city. More than just a buzzword, Affordable Housing is the future legacy and top priority of Atlanta Mayor, Andre Dickens, and therefore driving much of the current multifamily development across the city. This push is in response to the pains of sky high rents and interest rates that are keeping potential homebuyers in the rental mix, and pushing lower income earners into the more affordable suburbs. The bustling BeltLine also has a big role in our dismal rental housing market. While it’s responsible for great contributions to the city, everyone wants a piece of it: developers, businesses, and, of course, the people who call Atlanta home. The omnipresent need to be “on the BeltLine” is creating large pockets of luxurious townhomes and high-rise apartment buildings that the majority of people who live and work here can’t afford. So, what is our role as architects and designers? It used to be every young architect’s dream to put their stamp on a city’s skyline. The taller, the better. The more intricate design details, the more fun. But our team has come to realize that there’s oftentimes more complexity and challenge in designing something that’s three, four or five stories tall but made for all income levels and demographics. There can be more passion in building an affordable home that feels like a five star resort to its residents than designing a statuesque tower that serves business transactions. As one of the architectural firms selected to be part of the city’s affordable housing push, we’re constantly thinking of ways to meet budgets and timelines while adding unexpected touches of delight to these rental communities. Going beyond what’s asked to make sure that the amenities rise above the standard, the landscaping is picture perfect, and the units are roomy and appointed with modern finishes. With Affordable Housing taking center stage this week, we’re proud to be part of this initiative as experts in building multifamily communities that allow the people who work in the city center to also live and thrive there.

"Pop quiz: What do inflation, climate change and zoning laws have in common? Answer: They’re all reasons that rental housing costs are pretty high these days, according to a Harvard University report." This is the opening to the attached article below. I've also linked to the Harvard Study on the state of the nation's housing that it references. The article and report serve to cooperate what I have been saying in prior posts. Housing starts are down in multi-family (Single Family as well, just as an FYI) and the product which is getting built is expensive. However, increased building and operations costs make it unfeasible to build anything else. The result is that NOAH (Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing) housing is disappearing and rent pressures will soon return across the board. Let's look at the math really quick from an investor's perspective. I can buy apartment A at $150,000 per door, with a 15% IRR and 8% Cash on Cash return, plus take advantage of future rent increases. Or I can try and build a similar apartment for $300,000 per door down the street, spend 24 months carrying the debt on it while fighting with the neighbors who don't want more apartments and the city that won't support me, whose rents are still capped by the market and hope to break even in year 5. Providing I can even find the contractors to build it for me. It get's even better if they are trying to build affordable housing. As we discussed on the NIMBY/YIMBY posts, the zoning/permitting fights to prevent "those people" from living nearby are epic. Plus now, on top of fighting the local municipality, they have to build according to the rules of the housing authority (on top of local rules) and have restrictions on rents. That's providing they get the tax credits in the first place because they are competitive, and developers often spend $100,000 plus and never even get an award. In order to apply for a tax credit award they have to have site control (buy or contract to buy the land), have proof of zoning, have initial architectural drawings, and pay application fees. These are the reasons that, as a broker, I'm not overly worried about my sector of commercial real estate. However, as an avid believer in affordable housing, I am terrified. https://lnkd.in/erWFEJHX https://lnkd.in/e9xgpuCc