Statssport Statssport’s Post

New Post: MLB DFS: Top DraftKings, FanDuel daily Fantasy baseball picks, lineups, advice, stacks for June 6, 2024 - https://lnkd.in/eMX7ctGj Death, taxes and the Yankees defeating the Minneosta Twins. The first two are certainly unavoidable but the latter feels just as inevitable over the last few years. The Yankees are 5-0 against the Twins this season and are 22-7 against Minnesota since their three-game sweep in the 2019 ALDS. The Yankees scored 14 runs over their first two games in the series against Minnesota, so should daily Fantasy baseball players build MLB DFS lineups around options such as Aaron Judge, Juan Soto or Anthony Volpe from the MLB DFS player pool?Judge and Soto won't be cheap, but Judge has proven why he's one of the best options for MLB DFS picks on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings. The 2022 AL MVP has four home runs and 15 RBI over his last six games, including five RBI against the Twins on Wednesday. How should you factor his dominance into forming an MLB DFS strategy? Before locking in any MLB DFS picks for Thursday, be sure to check out the MLB DFS advice, strategy and projections from SportsLine daily Fantasy expert Mike McClure.McClure is a daily Fantasy pro who has won more than $2 million in his career. And when it comes to daily Fantasy baseball, McClure is at his best. Recognized in the book "Fantasy Football (and Baseball) for Smart People: How to Turn Your Hobby into a Fortune" as a top MLB DFS player, McClure's proprietary projection model simulates each game 10,000 times, taking factors such as matchups and recent results into account. This allows him to find the best values on every site.On Wednesday, McClure highlighted White Sox outfielder Corey Julks as one of his top picks in his MLB DFS player pool on both sites. The result: Julks went 2-for-4 with a home run and a walk, returning 24.7 points on FanDuel and 19 points on DraftKings. Anybody who included him in their lineups was well on the way to a profitable day.   Now, with the 2024 MLB season rolling, McClure has locked in his top MLB daily Fantasy picks for Thursday, June 6. You can head to SportsLine now to see them. McClure's top MLB DFS picks for Thursday One of McClure's top MLB DFS picks for Thursday is Braves third baseman Austin Riley at $3,300 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings. Riley has at least one hit in four of his last five games with two extra-base hits over that span. Riley's off to a slower start, but he's been one of the best offensive third basemen in baseball with at least 33 home runs, 93 RBI and 90 runs scored in each of the previous three seasons. Riley is hitting .232 with a .661 OPS this year compared to a career .272 batting average with an .836 OPS and McClure thinks it's only a matter of time until the back-to-back All-Star version of Riley returns. The dip in production has also lowered his price on MLB DFS sites and he has a

Justin Slaten: The Next Red Sox Closer Justin Slaten should ascend to the closer role following the departure of Kenley Jansen in free agency. Slaten has the metrics and predictive stats to shut down games for a potential playoff team next season, and here’s why. His 3-pitch mix includes a cutter, 4SFB, and sweeper. He occasionally mixes in a CB but only around 8% of the time. The FB and SL are both plus offerings and he relies on them over a third of the time, with the FB reaching up to 19 inches of iVB and the sweeper generating up to 18 inches of HB. Slaten has shown the ability to keep runners off the bases with a .253 wOBA (top 8% in the MLB), and limits free passes with a 4.0 BB% (top 3% in the MLB). When trying to predict a pitcher for a high leverage situation, often times you want to look at a pitcher’s LOB%. This is a useful stat because it shows how often a pitcher will strand base runners and potentially limit the amount of damage in a tough situation if he is coming into the game with runners on base. In his 2024 rookie season, Slaten had a 70.6 LOB% which was similar to already established closers like Mason Miller (70.6%), Clay Holmes (70.5%), Aroldis Chapman (69.2%), and Josh Hader (69%). Another important category to look at is hard-hit balls and barrels against. Slaten is tied for 16th in the league with a 2.7 Brls/PA % and again compares to Emmanuel Clase (2.6) and is tied with Raisel Iglesias (2.7), and Tanner Scott (2.7), all of whom are elite closers. When solely looking at Slaten’s stuff, his curveball ranks the highest in the league in with a 158 Stuff+ (per FanGraphs). His FB (113) and SL (115) are both above league average in terms of Stuff+ as well. Combining all the numbers mentioned prior, and given his excellent statistical season as a rookie, the Red Sox should be poised to promote Slaten to the closer role while only having to pay the right-hander approximately $800,000 in his second full season with the team. This move doesn’t only make sense in terms of his talent, but also makes financial sense for the Red Sox organization, as they won’t have to pay Jansen coming off a contract that saw him net $16 million/year over the last two seasons. Slaten is under team control and won’t hit arbitration until 2027 making him even more of an asset not only in the bullpen, but in high leverage situations for the foreseeable future.

Recently, MLB network broadcast a documentary on Greg Maddux, a right handed pitcher who won more games than any right handed pitcher whose career started after the "dead ball" era, which ended in 1920. He won 355 games between 1986 and 2009. The only pitcher to win more games in the last 100+ years is Warren Spahn, a lefty who pitched between 1946 and 1967. Neither Maddux, nor Spahn, threw the ball particularly hard or were athletically impressive. However, Maddux was an exceptional fielder, winning 18 Gold Glove awards for being the best fielding pitcher. Both struck out a surprisingly high number of batters and appeared to make their work look easy. Both attributed their success, using different words, to the same attribute: making balls appear to be strikes and strikes appear to be balls. They had pinpoint control and the ability to deceive batters. Both had baseball intelligence that was off the charts, and outperformed opponents that others could not beat. The MLB documentary on Maddux is worth watching for many reasons, but one segment is particularly revealing. In it, Maddux and Barry Bonds, the best hitter of his era, each have I-Pads and are comparing notes about particular at-bats. A viewer quickly realizes that an elaborate chess game is going on. In the 1st at bat, Maddux thinks he has thrown a great pitch inside, but Bonds hits a home run because of his ability to extend his arms from his stance. In the 2nd at bat, Maddux coaxes Bonds to swing at a ball tailing away him and Bonds hits a weak grounder. In the 3rd at-bat, the advantage goes back and forth. Finally, Bonds swings through or over a slower pitch right over the plate and Maddux strikes him out. Maddux acknowledges that he was "lucky" to win that battle. What one teammate says about Maddux, which could also have been said about Spahn, is that he did not look like an athlete, but the power he brought above the neck to everything gave him an incredible edge. Hiring managers in business, like baseball scouts and general managers, tend to get overawed by visible credentials and quality. Maddux was drafted by the Cubs in the 2nd round. Many teams could have drafted him, but they overlooked his intelligence and growth potential and looked only at his physical attributes. Few, if any, baseball insiders would have predicted that Spahn would have the career he did when he was discharged from the military and resumed pitching for the Braves in 1946. The brainpower and mental toughness of these two individuals was undervalued, although it should have been obvious early on.

If you're a Mets fan like me, you might also be seeing and hearing a lot about how the Mets Pitching Staff have been struggling through the first 3 games, walking 22 batters over those 3 games. This is definitely cause for concern, but I decided to take a little bit of a deeper dive into this to see what might be the cause of all these walks. I tried to utilize information I could find through Baseball Savant and FanGraphs to help piece some of this together! The Mets, pre-NLCS, had been creating opportunities to force swings from opposing hitters (48.1% swing rate in the Wild Card and NLDS rounds). This helped contribute to a 60.8% First Pitch Strike % and a 62.9% Strike % - both of these are a little below 2024 league average, but still a good rate to be working with. They also had generated a 74.1% rate of recording Early + Ahead counts. To clarify, an "early" is a result within first 3 pitches, outside of 2-0 counts & an "ahead" is getting to 0-2 or 1-2. You can only record 1 of these results at maximum per AB. The results after any of these do not matter (shoutout to Jared Gaynor and Pitching Coach U for this!). Now, the Mets faced the Brewers (known for being a bit more selective at the plate) and the Phillies (known for higher swing and chase rates). The Mets won against the Brewers by attacking the zone early and using the laid back approach of the Brewers to their advantage. The Mets had a 76% E+A%, with a lot of this coming to getting ahead. On the contrary, the Mets used the aggressive nature of the Phillies in the NLDS to get chase and swings. The Mets had an increase in swing% over this series and had more Early Results compared to the Brewers series. This benefitted the Mets pitching staff a lot of this series. However, this game plan does not work with a team like the Dodgers. The Dodgers are known for their low chase rate (25.7% chase rate, third lowest in the MLB this year). They were also top 5 in both hard hit% and barrel%. Because of this, I believe that the Mets are trying to make an effort to try to utilize pitches like Cutters and Sinkers to help get pitches that look in zone early but move off the plate OR have pitches been in zone that can help miss a barrel (we saw an increase in Cutter usage from Luis Severino in Game 3 compared to his usual splits and an increase in Sinker usage from Manaea in Game 2 and utilized his sweeper effectively as well). However, this type of "nibbling" approach has costed the Mets in their FPS%, Strike%, and they've been falling behind into deeper counts. It's easy to sit here and say that the Mets need to do a better job challenging the Dodger hitters early. However, when you have a team like the Dodgers that have done a great job of finding a lot of barrels for balls in the zone, you can't just throw fastballs over the plate expecting that you'll just get ahead with no issues. Let me know your thoughts and takes! Would love to discuss more!

The Negro Leagues didn’t have seasons long enough to have a batting slump. In 1943, Josh Gibson recorded a .466 batting average while playing catcher for the Homestead Grays, which had a record of 53-14-1 that year. That’s only 68 games. A Major League Baseball season was 154 games for the first part of the 20th century, until the MLB season lengthened to 162 games starting in 1962. The Negro Leagues did not even play half the official games counting toward statistics that the Major League Baseball players of the same era were playing. It is totally bogus to incorporate Negro League statistics into Major League Baseball statistics when one group had more than twice as many at-bats to count against their batting averages. It would be pretty tough to maintain a .466 batting average over 154 games that count statistically. For perspective: to achieve a .400 batting average for the season is considered unachievable today and has never been achieved in Major League Baseball since Ted Williams did it in 1941 when he played in 143 Major League Baseball games with a .406 batting average for the season. For more perspective on how aberrant a .466 batting average was in 1943: the top five batting averages in Major League Baseball for 1943 were all well below the .400 mark. 1943 MLB - TOP 5 BATTING AVERAGE 1. Stan Musial .357 2. Bill Dickey .351 3. Billy Herman .330 4. Luke Appling .328 5. Ival Goodman .320 It’s offensive to suggest that a batting average in the majority of 68 Negro League games could be compared to a batting average in the majority of 154 Major Leage Baseball games. There is no comparison. This is a case of people taking credit when credit is not due. JTB 5-31-24

Fun Fact Friday! In honor of his passing this week, we are revisiting the career of one of the greatest to ever put on a uniform- the "Say Hey Kid", Willie Mays. Mays was a 24x All Star, 12x Gold Glover, 2x NL MVP, World Series Champ and Rookie of the Year. In MLB history, he's still ranked 6th for HRs, 7th for Runs, 12th for hits and 1st for games played in CF and putouts by an outfielder. At the time of his retirement, he held the NL record for career runs scored (2,062), ranked 2nd in league history in games played (2,992), 3rd in HRs (660), at bats (10,881), RBIs (1,903), total bases (6,066), extra-base hits (1,323) and walks (1,464), 4th in hits (3,293), 5th in slugging percentage (.557), and 8th in doubles (523). He also hit .302 for his career. For all the baseball nerds, here's a crazy stat: From 1954-1966, Mays had 13 consecutive seasons where he posted a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 7.0 or higher. That meant for 13 years in a row, he was, statistically, at least 7x more valuable than a replacement level player. His total WAR over that period was 124.1. To put that in perspective, the next closest players were Hank Aaron at 96.4, followed by Mickey Mantle at 90.0! While Mays in a Giants uniform is iconic and seeing him in a Mets uniform makes sense, what if he'd been in a Red Sox uniform? They had their shot. In 1950, a Red Sox scout had a deal in place to sign Mays for $4500, but the front office shot it down because they didn't want to integrate. Can you imagine Ted Williams and Willie Mays in the same lineup and patrolling the outfield in Fenway together?! No amount of LinkedIn exposition would be enough to accurately reflect how phenomenal Mays was, so I'll just tip my cap in honor of a man who belongs on the Mount Rushmore of baseball players.

Wyatt Langford: Breaking Records and Defying Odds in MLB As a preface, this article is going to be a little bit different from my others. Usually, I write strictly stats-based arguments that show no bias toward any team in particular. However, in this article, I will show some bias toward my favorite team, the Texas Rangers, and one of my favorite players, Wyatt Langford. On June 30th, Wyatt Langford became one of six MLB players in history to hit for the cycle within their first 60 career games. However, I am about to show you that what this kid from Florida has accomplished is statistically impossible to ever be accomplished again. Before we get to the juicy stuff, let's talk a little bit about Langford and how his MLB career is going so far. He has a .266 BA, 40 RBI, and a .731 OPS, which puts him at about 8% better than the league average and the favorite to win AL ROY. There are stories hidden in that stat line. In the first 35 games, Langford had a .574 OPS, making him a net negative on his team. However, in his next 37 games, his OPS skyrocketed to .910, which would put him in the top 10 in the league ahead of players like Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman and just one spot below Yordan Alvarez. Baseball is a game of millimeters and milliseconds. Hitting a ball 2 millimeters too high could be a ground out instead of a line drive. If you swing a few milliseconds too early, that could turn a home run into a foul ball. That is the difference between these two stories. Wyatt Langford has been hitting the ball hard all season; he just needed to make a couple of little adjustments, and he did. On April 28th, Wyatt hit his first home run. However, it was an inside-the-park home run. What are the chances your first career home run is inside the park? Got to be pretty low, right? A little less than 2 months later, he hit his 3rd career home run, but this one was a grand slam. And 8 days later, he hit his 4th career home run to complete a cycle. He became the first rookie to ever accomplish all of these feats in a single season. So it got me thinking, what are the chances of hitting these three very rare milestones in such a short span? So I ran the numbers. - 3.6% of plate appearances result in a home run. - 0.61% of home runs are inside the park. - 0.01% of home runs are part of cycles. - 1.18% of home runs are grand slams. The chance of accomplishing all three of these feats in 4 home runs is 1 in 574,085,768. No other player has done it in history, let alone as a rookie. For perspective, the chances of winning the Powerball lottery are 1 in 300,000,000. One unique aspect of MLB is the absurd number of games that are played—2,430 across the league as a whole, to be precise. While most games stay within a standard deviation of normalcy, over the course of more than 2,000 games, crazy things can happen, and Wyatt Langford’s achievement might be the most statistically improbable one we’ve ever witnessed. Baseball #r #rangers #florida #coding

As we start baseball's League Championship Series, I am reminded of baseball's relative unpredictability. Two of the four team, the Dodgers and the Yankees, were expected to be in this position. The other two, Cleveland and the New York Mets, were not. After 55 games, the Mets had a 22-33 record and looked like they had little chance of being in the playoffs, but they pulled together and succeeded in upsetting Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia to get to this point. Cleveland was not expected to finish first in its Division, but succeeded with a first-year manager and a team with a very low payroll. Even relative to the Dodgers and Yankees, unpredictable factors figured into their success. The Dodgers made a number of big splashy acquisitions both in the offseason and a the trade deadline, but the four that mattered most, Kike Hernandez, Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman, and Jack Flaherty, were relatively low profile acquisitions. The Yankees' most important acquisition was Jazz Chisholm and its most important decision was turning Luke Weaver into a closer. The Mets have a very high payroll, but two of its expensive players, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, did not play for the Mets. Many of its critical contributors were very low paid players. The Mets have a winning culture, in part, because of its below-the-radar excellence of its rookie manager Carlos Mendoza. As I have previously written, I saw Cleveland beat the Yankees on August 20 at Yankee Stadium. They are a less talented, but more fundamentally sound, team than the Yankees. It is not surprising that they have reached this point. In business, as in sports, fundamentals and great culture are keys to success. Having the most money to spend does not ensure that an organization will have either one.

In epic pitchers’ duel, SF Giants’ Blake Snell and Braves’ Chris Sale epitomized modern baseball by Danny Emerman via San Francisco Giants schedule, news, score | The Mercury News ([Global] Oracle Advanced Analytics) URL: https://ift.tt/Uo0hQ49 Not only were pitching performances from Blake Snell and Chris Sale on Monday night at Oracle Park electric, they were also microcosms. Snell and Sale struck out 11 and 12, respectively, in Atlanta’s 1-0 victory to open a key four-game series. Snell no-hit the Braves for six innings and Sale lasted an inning longer than the Giants’ southpaw. For the first time since 2010, Oracle Park hosted a game in which both the Giants’ starting pitcher and the starter opposite him each recorded at least 10 strikeouts. Their 23 combined strikeouts were the most by a starting pitching matchup in the ballpark’s 25-year history. The game featured 33 total strikeouts — more than any other MLB game this season — a bug of today’s boom-or-bust brand of baseball. Both Snell and Sale epitomize it as two of the defining starters of the era: strikeout specialists who have taken advantage of the launch angle revolution and advancements in advanced pitching science. “There’s a ton of swing-and-miss, as you saw last night,” Giants manager Bob Melvin said. “I think both are very aware of where the game’s going.” Snell and Sale pair mid-90s high fastballs with bending breaking balls that break the spin rate scales. Snell has won two National League Cy Young awards and Sale is the favorite to win the honor this year. They’re not the best starting pitchers of the past 15 years — that’d be Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. But in a way, they represent the ways baseball has evolved the most. Since the rise of modern analytics, pitching laboratories like Driveline, and the embracing of three true outcomes, Snell and Sale have thrived. “Swings have changed,” Snell said after Monday’s loss. “Before — fortunately it was 2016 when I made my debut — but even earlier, it was all about average and finding a way to put the ball in play. Now it’s about slug, hitting homers and doubles. For a guy like me, knowing that, yeah, I mean I should be pretty good at striking people out. Especially because they’re trying to go deep. So there’s a lot more room for error because of how hard it is to square up a baseball.” Not every pitcher dominates the top of the zone and reaches back for maximum effort to prioritize power over pitchability. Likewise, not every hitter aims for the fences with every swing. There are still great players, like Logan Webb and Luis Arraez, who buck new-age trends. But they’re becoming outliers. Snell and Sale rank first and second, respectively, on the all-time strikeouts per nine innings leaderboard (and they’re separated by decimal points). The top-10 on the list is littered with active or recently retired pitchers. Current Giants lefty Robbie Ray is third. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer rank fourth an...

🚨 HISTORIC: Juan Soto Signs Groundbreaking $765M Deal with the New York Mets! 🚨 The baseball world is buzzing as superstar Juan Soto has inked a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets, making it the largest deal in sports history. This move cements Soto’s place as one of the greatest talents in the game and signals the Mets' unwavering commitment to building a dynasty. Contract Highlights: Duration: 15 years (through 2039), with no opt-outs unless the Mets fail to adjust his salary by $40M after the 2029 season. Value: $765 million guaranteed, surpassing Shohei Ohtani’s $700M contract with the Dodgers. Incentives: Potential to exceed $800M with performance bonuses tied to MVP votes, home run milestones, and postseason achievements. No-Trade Clause: Soto is locked into New York unless he decides otherwise, ensuring long-term stability for both the player and the franchise. Why This Matters: Record-Breaking Rivalry: Soto turned down a $760M offer from the Yankees, intensifying the rivalry between New York’s baseball giants. Mets’ Statement: Owner Steve Cohen continues his aggressive approach to transforming the Mets into a perennial contender, solidifying them as a premier destination for MLB’s elite. Soto’s Legacy: At just 26 years old, Soto brings his .282 career batting average, 41 home runs from last season, and an uncanny ability to deliver in clutch moments to a Mets lineup already brimming with talent. What Soto Brings to the Mets: 1️⃣ Star Power: A generational hitter known for his discipline at the plate, Soto is a two-time All-Star and a World Series champion. 2️⃣ Championship Aspirations: His addition immediately elevates the Mets’ chances of making a deep postseason run and claiming the World Series. 3️⃣ Consistency: Over six MLB seasons, Soto has proven to be one of the most reliable bats in the league, with an OPS consistently above .900. Looking Ahead: With Soto now leading the charge, the Mets’ lineup becomes one of the most formidable in baseball. Paired with their already impressive roster, this deal positions the team to dominate both on the field and in the headlines for years to come. 📅 Mark your calendars, Mets fans—the Soto era begins in 2024, and it promises to be one for the ages. 💬 What do YOU think of this historic deal? Will Juan Soto be the final piece of the Mets’ championship puzzle? Drop your thoughts below! #JuanSoto #Mets #MLB #RecordBreakingDeal #BaseballHistory #SotoEra #WorldSeriesBound Credit: Fox Sports