Sebestyén Hompot’s Post

Since 2019, weak domestic demand and expanding industrial capacity have combined to balloon China’s manufacturing trade surplus. While growing Chinese exports benefit developing countries to some extent by providing inputs for their local industries, they also contribute to China’s rising market power, creating new vulnerabilities for the developing world. It has long been assumed that China’s rise up the value chain would create a growing market for labor-intensive manufactured goods from other emerging markets. These hopes will be dashed if Beijing cannot restart the engines of its own domestic growth and absorb more of what it currently exports. Unless Beijing implements serious demand reforms, developing nations will be crowded out of manufacturing by Chinese overcapacity, leaving them dependent and without export opportunities.

🚀 Southeast Asia has attracted more foreign direct investment (FDI) than China for the first time in a decade ! 🏔 Southeast Asia has attracted more foreign direct investment (FDI) than China for the first time in a decade as investors seek to create ‘China+1’ supply chains to avoid rising tariffs and other costs, according to a new report. 🎡 The report, titled ‘Navigating High Winds : Southeast Asia Outlook 2024–34‘, predicts a bright future for Southeast Asia’s six largest economies – Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and The Philippines, which are said to generate 97% of growth in the 10-nation ASEAN region. 🎈 The six top economies in Southeast Asia received foreign investment of $206 billion in 2023, compared to $43 billion in China, according to the South China Morning Post, which cited a report released on Thursday (August 1) by the Angsana Council, Bain & Co and DBS Bank. ✨ It said Southeast Asia has since the mid-1990s lagged China on growth measures such as real GDP, GDP per capita, trade growth, and the size of foreign and domestic investments. But “winds supporting a higher growth rate began to shift” during that time as Southeast Asia laid the groundwork to accelerate four key growth drivers – a growing workforce, higher labour productivity, higher capital spending, and higher capital productivity. 🎗 “Based on the analysis, Southeast Asia should, in this next decade, outpace China in GDP growth, reversing the trend of the last 30 years,” the report forecast, noting that Vietnam had been the most successful country in the region under most metrics. 🏆 Between 2018 and 2022, foreign direct investment grew by 37% in Southeast Asia, compared to just 10% in China, with Singapore the standout in FDI. ⚽ Southeast Asia is two to five times more dependent on trade than other major regions, the report said, noting that trade volume accounted for 89% of the region’s GDP growth over the last decade. Read more information at: https://lnkd.in/gQZyagy2

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the Asean economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam have been gaining traction, although there are some differences across sectors and countries, they added. Inflows into the region rose to US$236 billion (S$318 billion) in 2023, compared with the annual average of US$190 billion from 2020 and 2022. The major contributors were the United States, Japan, Europe, as well as mainland China and Hong Kong, attracted by the region’s strong domestic reforms, which have led to improving macroeconomic fundamentals. https://lnkd.in/gseN-HMz

The 21st Century Will Be An Asian Century, Regardless of China's Trajectory As globalization enters a new phase defined by great power competition, 🌏 Asia will continue to take a leading role on the global stage, which can already be felt through some major geo-economic trends: 1. Asia has become the second-most integrated trade region globally, with nearly 57% of its trade value originating within the region. Regional supply chain development is driving this process, fostering greater economic interdependence, especially between China and ASEAN, but increasingly with other neighbouring Asian powerhouses, including India. 2. Despite its deepening trade relationship with Beijing, Asia’s rising powers still maintain a broad international network of diverse trade and investment relationships with advanced Western economies. 🌐 3. ASEAN countries, in particular, are emerging as key connectors between global powers like the U.S. and China, reinforcing Asia’s role as a central hub in global trade flows, increasing its global geo-strategic weight and fostering regional opportunities for economic development. 📈 Asia's rise in global trade and supply chains, made clear by these trends, ensures its prominence in the 21st-century economy, independent of the result of the competition between Washington and Beijing. It further emphasizes that investing in sustainable and renewable energy solutions 🌿 in these countries is crucial for the success of the global energy transition. Asia must take the lead, not only in economic growth but also in driving sustainability. ♻️ #AsiaCentury #GlobalTrade #Geopolitics #BusinessLeadership #ASEAN #India #China https://lnkd.in/gNJbZGVi

We keep telling you about the growing economies and it's Vietnam that caught our attention this time. 🧐 This country is expected to grow at the fastest rate among Southeast Asian emerging economies, according to World Bank forecasts. 🔝 The World Bank has released a new forecast that states Vietnam's economy will grow by 6.1% at the end of 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. ⬆️ Read the full text here https://t.ly/wEh5r ↩️ #vietnam #emergingeconomy #economy #economygrowth #globaleconomy #partner #businesspartner #partnerinrussia #businesswithrussia #exportmarketing #marketing #newmarket #export #exim #trade #CONSULTANT #service #exporters #exportimport #importexport

Another portion of insights in our corporate blog is out. 💡 💡 💡 Read about Vietnam's current economy growth here ⤵️ #vietnam #emergingeconomy #economy #economygrowth #globaleconomy #partner #businesspartner #partnerinrussia #businesswithrussia #exportmarketing #marketing #newmarket #export #exim #trade #CONSULTANT #service #exporters #exportimport #importexport

Trade ties between the US and emerging market economies in the Asia-Pacific region are shifting from efforts to diversify supply chains out of China through “friendshoring” or “nearshoring”. Against this backdrop, Vietnam is among the Asia-Pacific markets relatively well-placed to gain from such shifts.

From 2017 to 2022, FDI inflows and GDP forecasts have painted contrasting pictures for Asia and Europe. Asia, with China and Singapore at the forefront, has seen impressive FDI inflows, highlighting the region's growing economic dynamism. In 2022 alone, China and Singapore attracted $189 billion and $141 billion respectively, making up 50% of Asia's total $661.8 billion inflows. This trend underscores Asia's attractiveness to global investors. On the other hand, Europe has faced declining FDI inflows into its major economies, although there was a glimmer of hope with a recovery in 2022. Current data suggests that the Asia-Europe trade corridor will be crucial for Europe's economic recovery. With significant trade deficits and concentrated export markets in Asia, European economies must leverage their trade relationships with key Asian partners, particularly ASEAN, China and India, to promote growth. ASEAN's projected rapid growth further emphasizes its importance as a driver of future economic interactions between the two regions. Strengthening trade ties with Asia are pivotal for Europe to navigate its economic challenges and capitalize on Asia's growth momentum. Eurasia Strategy helps companies establish new connections and drives growth for your business in ASEAN! #Economy #Trade #FDI #Asia #Europe #EconomicGrowth #GlobalTrade #Investment #ASEAN #China #Singapore #BusinessInsights

Globalization: Impact, Disparities, Competitiveness, and Policy Implications. Transformative Effects of Globalization: Analyzing the shifts in international trade, finance, and information exchange. Benefits and Challenges of Globalization: Exploring the advantages and drawbacks experienced by different regions and economies. Understanding Regional Economic Disparities: Investigating the factors contributing to varied growth trajectories in East Asia, Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Europe. Factors Influencing Competitiveness: Examining the role of skilled labor, infrastructure, and market demand in enhancing a nation's global competitiveness. Globalization and International Exchange: How has globalization transformed the landscape of international trade, finance, and information exchange? What are the benefits and challenges of increased globalization for different regions and economies? Regional Disparities in Economic Growth: The rapid growth of East Asian economies stands in contrast to the slower growth in Latin America. What factors have contributed to these divergent growth trajectories? Why have average incomes declined in regions like sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe, despite the overall trend of globalization? Factors Affecting Competitiveness: A nation's competitiveness depends heavily on its resources like skilled workers and good infrastructure. Countries can use these strengths to compete globally by investing in education and building better roads and communication networks. Additionally, understanding local demand is crucial; industries that meet specific needs in their home markets can gain an edge globally. For example, if a country has a growing demand for renewable energy, companies focusing on green technologies can be more competitive internationally. By aligning their strengths with market demands, countries can enhance their global competitiveness and attract investment and opportunities. Policy Implications and Future Trends: Globalization has reshaped how countries trade goods, share finances, and exchange information globally, creating both advantages and challenges. The rapid growth of East Asian economies can be attributed to factors like investment in education, infrastructure, and favorable government policies, while Latin America's slower growth stems from issues like political instability and inadequate infrastructure.      #Globalization #PolicyInsights #EconomicImpacts"

Carbon Pricing in Asia, October 2024 In this scenario, carbon prices are assumed to increase by between USD 160 and USD 315 per tonne of CO2e in nine Asian economies in the short run, 3 depending on the country. The nine economies (Asia-9) examined can be grouped into the five middle-income economies—China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand—and the four high-income economies—Hong Kong, Korea, Japan and Singapore