Saurabh Parmar’s Post

🌍 The World’s Population is Changing – Here’s What the Data Tells Us! 📊 I’m excited to share insights from my first task at Prodigy InfoTech, where I had the opportunity to dive into global population data. Here’s what we discovered: India Takes the Lead in 2023 - This year, India officially passed China as the world’s most populous country. It’s a major shift, showing how populations in certain parts of the world are growing faster than others. Young Populations Drive Growth in Developing Countries - Nations like Indonesia, Pakistan, and Nigeria are experiencing rapid growth due to younger populations and higher birth rates. This means a lot of potential for growth but also a challenge in terms of providing enough jobs, education, and healthcare. Slower Growth in Developed Countries - In places like the U.S., population growth is steady but slower, often supported by immigration. Japan, however, has been seeing a decrease in its population due to an aging population and lower birth rates. This could mean future shifts in economic power and challenges in caring for older populations. What It All Means Growing populations in countries like India and Nigeria will require careful planning to manage resources and jobs. In places where populations are shrinking, like Japan, the impact on the workforce and economy will need innovative solutions. As growth moves more to developing countries, there’s a need for policies that support sustainable development, making sure that growth benefits everyone. This task was a great start at Prodigy InfoTech, helping us understand how demographic changes might shape the world’s future. 📈 Looking forward to more insights and learning from these trends! #ProdigyInfoTech #PopulationTrends #GlobalGrowth #Datascience#FutureOfWork #LinkedInInsights

India’s large and young population can pay it demographic dividend, that is, be a driver of its economic growth. In China the demographic dividend quadrupled China’s real GDP per capita in less than twenty years between 1982 and 2000. A record unmatched elsewhere in the world. The “dividend” gains in China continued during 2000-2013 though at a slower pace. India's demographic dividend will continue at least till 2055–56. It will peak around 2041, when 59% of its population will be of working-age (20–59 years). At present, India's working-age population is nine hundred million.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this piece are my own. In a recent Straits Times opinion article titled 'Asia is entering a new, post-youth era'[1], author Lin Suling sought to make the point that demographic deficit will give Asia some of its most challenging decades ahead, and she charted data from UN's World Population Prospects to make various pyramids of countries, including ours. My first reaction when seeing Singapore's pyramid was: ours somehow looked more like a pear-shaped tree. But the shape of the population chart somehow flies against the commonly-held perception that Singapore has an ageing population issue. Should the logic hold, then the chart should look closer to that of Japan, South Korea, and China, all East Asian countries that do have ageing population issues. Then I was alerted to an article from The Online Citizen [2], which charges that the ST article contradicts the official data from Singapore, among other things. In it then, the author Terry Xu used a chart taken from Singapore's National Population and Talent Division. Looking at the chart then, the shape indeed looks closer to what one expects of an ageing population. So what led to the different charts? Well, it turns out population statistics can be different. UN's data counts the entirety of Singapore's de facto population, inclusive of citizens, residents, transient workers and students, among many others. The NPTD's chart, though, only looks at the age profile of Singapore citizens. But with the two datasets involved, one could figure out the broad age profile of our population, whether citizens, residents, or nonresidents (including workers on work passes and students, among others). So, quick trips to Google later followed by some Excel calculations, here's the estimated Singapore population pyramid as of 2024 by broad age group, as below. A quick point. It shouldn't come as a surprise that Singapore has a large, youthful nonresident population. Remember, there are a good number of foreign students in Singapore, and a lot of construction and foreign domestic workers too. But it also suggests that Singapore has managed to stave off the economic issues surrounding ageing by dipping, time and again, into the 'fountain of youth' of other countries. But is it a long-term solution, given that other parts of Asia are indeed beginning to age? [1] https://lnkd.in/gxUbmMW9 [2] https://lnkd.in/gQ-4XzhF #singapore #population #charts

Population Explosion India. ( 1500000000 people ). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There are roughly 1.0 Billion people in India. To manage so many people we have to prepare a Human Resource Database ( HRDB ). If we are to prepare a database and publish the same in the newspaper we will need 10,000 newspapers. Population of India = 100,00,00,000 ( 100 Crore ) If no of records published in the newspaper = 100,000 ( 1 Lac ) per day. then no of newspapers required to publish the entire HR database  = 100,00,00,000 people / 100,000 records = 10,000 Newspapers  = 1000 Excel Sheets. Thus, to publish the entire database of Indian Citizens we will require 10,000 newspapers i.e. = 27 Years. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pranav.Deotale

This excellent decomposition of Singapore’s population pyramid by Heron Lim Shi Shun 林师顺 illustrates not only the reality of demographic change in Singapore, but also the government’s current approach to resolving the challenge of an aging society. If one focuses on just the blue and purple bars—the citizen population—it is clear that we have a major dependency problem for the working-age population (generally take to be the proportion of those below 16 and above 65, relative to those between 16 and 65). This doesn’t just mean that a smaller income tax base needs to go toward a larger pool of entitlements; it also means that the demands for government spending will change, as we focus less on education and labor market protections, and more on health and eldercare needs. That’s why the shape of the population distribution with immigrants looks so different; more like the standard pyramid shape (although, as Heron points out, it’s more akin to a tree, since we hardly absorb any child migrants, only the young working-age ones). These migrants do the work that many Singaporeans may not wish to do (construction, domestic work). They also cross-subsidize locals, since they pay taxes, but don’t receive as much by way of benefits. What’s worth asking, however, is how sustainable this model is in the longer run. Is a country with a significant share of the working population being foreigners—and hence less invested in the future contours of the society—ultimately healthy? Might unmitigated population inflows dilute some of our nation’s traditional advantages, like the quality of our socioeconomic institutions and our hard-forged cultural identity? Or is there a way to ensure that those who can and wish to be part of this multicultural and multiethnic project we call Singapore have a clearly-defined pathway to citizenship, without eroding our values and traditions?

The global population of individuals aged 60 and above is increasing at a rate five times faster than the overall population. The global GDP is increasingly influenced by individuals enjoying longer lives and extended careers. This age group is amassing a growing portion of the world's wealth. The estimated value is seeing a significant $8.3 trillion contribution. AARP actually estimates that the number might be considerably larger. They have found that people over the age of 50 already account for half of the consumer spending worldwide, or $35 trillion. As we reflect on these statistics, it becomes clear that the older population holds immense economic power, shaping global trends and consumer spending. In the years ahead, overlooking the influence of older individuals will become increasingly challenging. It's essential for businesses and societies to recognize and embrace the significant contributions of this demographic.

ASIAN POPULATION | according to UN projections. China and Japan anticipate an 8% and 18% population decrease, respectively, from 2020 to 2050. Similarly, South Korea and Taiwan expect declines of 12% and 8%, respectively in the same period. In contrast, the U.S. population is projected to grow by 12% from 2020 to 2050.

One research at the World Economic Forum suggests that the world population is ageing! by 2050, 16% of the world population would be aged 65 years and above and by 2050, it would be 25%. That's quite concerning! Meaning, if the productive workforce itself is not available globally, one may imagine what can happen going ahead. Since the population is ageing, any country has to spend more on social security, medical, pension for senior citizen and more and more money flows into such schemes instead of flowing into some productive economic activities. Such situation may either lead to hyperinflation or deep recession. The research says that African continent may not see such a big change and the aged population there will not be more than 15% of the overall population. That's plausible considering the civil unrest these countries have for years and years. The mortality rate might be high in such case. Especially in the US, the report says that 1 in 3 people will be more than 65 years of age by 2050...that's whopping 33% and considering that US is the biggest economy, that's worrying for the globe as such! Imagine, US is consumption based economy and if there is no population to consume the goods, then the production will take a hit and whichever countries by that time, who are manufacturing hub for the US, will have to cut production and then slowdown and then recession...so many cascading effects! Two of the reasons which I could see for this ageing population is one, the mortality rate will go down because of life expectancy owing to better medical facilities and second, so called "awareness" among young couple not to give birth to children! If this comes true, one can imagine where are we headed! This report speaks about physical age...and it doesn't speak as to out of these "aged" population, how many of them would be "happy"!!

The figure I shared last week received a decent amount of attention, so here is the same recipe applied to a new dataset. (Though I once again picked something featuring countries and continents) The two metrics we are looking at are the population numbers for '14 and younger' and '65 and above', so keep in mind that the entire middle of the population pyramid is actually not depicted within this figure. We compare the two snapshots of 2003 and 2023. This data neatly shows the layered revelations this figure allows. Let's go through them: Layer 1: Globally both metrics are increasing, though 65+ is growing twice as fast as the youth. Layer 2: Every continent but Africa is actually moving in a parallel. It on its lonesome is growing in both metrics, though heavily skewed towards the youth, and if we remove it from the global sum we actually observe a massive decrease in 65+, accompanied by decreasing population numbers for the youth. Layer 3: Most continents are pretty homogeneous, but Asia seems to be split in two. Some Asian countries mirror the African trajectory, but they are outweighed by countries like China and India, which point even more towards the direction of aging than the European countries. Speaking for myself, I genuinely learned some new things from this figure. The trajectory of Africa was expected, but I was surprised at the lack of heterogeneity throughout the continent. Everywhere shows growth. India surprised me in the opposite direction. I was aware that Japan and South Korea were aging rapidly, but I did not expect India to already share their trajectory. I fully expected them to still be growing in both metrics.

Population Push : Call is Irrational *** Population Push call in the wake of declining TFR is barely ill founded and illogical too. Our country is presently grappling with the challenges of overpopulation, asking people to bear more children to be numerically superior among a pluralistic society seems paradoxical . With a population exceeding 1.4 billion, India is facing unprecedented pressure on its dwindling resources, infrastructure, and environment. Obviously, the consequences of further population growth are far-reaching, viz scarce jobs, strained public services and a worsening environmental crisis. Instead, we need to have a comprehensive population control policy, which may include educating people on family planning measures. By incentives for smaller family sizes , emphasis should be on education, healthcare and augmenting resources to match the growing and fair needs of all . In this era of scientific advancements, promoting awareness to change societal attitudes towards communal harmony, the thrust has to be on building a strong nation based on the fundamentals of peace and prosperity rather than computing ethnic divides. The need is to imbibe rich sense of values as an integrated society of higher social and economic stability.