Dear readers, This week we outline three scenarios for forthcoming snap elections in France, and examine their market implications. Key takeaways: - European Parliament elections kept the centre-right status quo in place, but hint at deeper shifts ahead in France and Germany - Political uncertainty in France following the announcement of snap parliamentary elections triggered higher sovereign yields and equity market weakness - We examine three scenarios. While a majority government led by either the right-wing, or the left-wing coalition, would raise risks around France’s fiscal outlook, the most likely outcome is a hung parliament which would mean moderately higher uncertainty but likely little policy change - The European Central Bank’s intervention mechanisms mean that the eurozone does not face the same existential threats as its sovereign debt crisis of a dozen years ago. https://lnkd.in/eCntR6X2
Samy Chaar, PhD’s Post
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EUROPEAN ELECTIONS AND COUNTRY IMPLICATIONS❗️ By Guy ERTZ, Chief Investment Advisor Deputy Global CIO 📖🖊️ Key messages: •The EU election results have proven more consequential than expected. •The bigger surprise and source of uncertainty came from the announcement of snap elections in France. •The weakness of the euro and the upward pressure on Eurozone government bond yields could persist over the coming months. Equity markets to continue benefitting from a positive global economic outlook and the expectation for lower interest rates Enjoy this exciting read📖❗️ #bnpparibas #wealthmanagement #privatebanking #markets #economy #strategy #articles BNP Paribas Wealth Management - Private Banking
European elections and country Implications
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As the year of elections continues, both France and the UK closed out elections this week resulting in significant changes for the two countries. What does this mean for the markets and their economies? ➡️ Julius Baer’s research team takes a closer look in our Research Weekly: https://ow.ly/jLWL30sETLk Key take-aways 🇫🇷 With no party securing a majority in France, the likelihood of the radical policies that markets had feared has diminished. French assets and the EUR may remain vulnerable during the uncertain period of government formation and beyond, but broader damage should be limited. 🇬🇧 In the UK markets have reacted indifferently to a shift in government, as the potential for significant raises in fiscal spending is restricted by limited fiscal headroom. #MarketOutlook #Elections #France #UnitedKingdom #CapitalMarkets
French and UK elections: What is the impact on the markets?
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In-depth analysis: France's snap elections lead to unexpected market responses as the National Rally gains. This pivotal moment could define France's economic future and its position in the EU. #PoliticalEconomics #FrenchElections2024 Read more https://lnkd.in/euNnf-bk
French Election Shockwaves: Euro Surges Amid Political Uncertainty - European Business Magazine
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The outcome of the French elections is uncertain due to the electoral system's two-round voting process, making it difficult to predict outcomes... so how can this French election impact global markets? Read more with our UBS Insights!
Implications of the French legislative elections
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📊 The New Popular Front's unexpected success in the French legislative elections has captured market attention. Analysts are particularly focused on how this political shift might influence France's fiscal policies, especially regarding the deficit. The evolving political landscape could have significant implications for investor sentiment and market stability. Mark Haefele Alex Everett, CFA Kaspar Koechli #FrenchElections #MarketImpact #PoliticalChange #Investment #EconomicPolicy
The New Popular Front Surprises in the French Legislative Elections: The Deficit Remains a Focus for the Markets - Funds Society
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With elections for the US President and Congress just a week away, Thanos Papasavvas (consultant to the Liontrust Multi-Asset team) and John Husselbee (Head of the Multi-Asset team) discuss what the different possible results could mean for the outlook for the global economy, markets and client portfolios. Thanos and John also debate potential prospects for the UK post the Budget. To watch full video click here: https://lnkd.in/ewbYTcv9 Capital at risk. This should not be construed as investment advice. #USPolitics #Election2024 #MultiAsset #EconomicForecast #UKBudget
US Election Special
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As the year of elections continues, both results in France and the UK have delivered the basis for significant changes in the two countries. What does this mean for the markets and their economies? Julius Baer's research team takes a closer look in our Research Weekly: https://ow.ly/ratL30sESCH #MarketOutlook
French and UK elections: What is the impact on the markets?
juliusbaer.com
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The priorities of new administrations and their effects on credit fundamentals will be a focus of our sovereign credit analysis in those Latin American (LatAm) countries where elections are due this year, Fitch Ratings says. Learn more https://ow.ly/xkBw50QYxJP #FitchRatings #LatinAmerica #Elections #Sovereign
LatAm Elections’ Policy and Governability Effects Will Be in Focus in 2024
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Britain’s general election pivotal in post-Brexit recovery The year 2024 has been marked by a flurry of elections across the globe, each carrying significant weight in shaping the future trajectory of their respective countries and, to some extent, the world at large. Among these pivotal elections, Britain’s upcoming general election stands out as a crucial turning point, especially in the context of post-Brexit recovery efforts. The aftermath of Brexit, compounded by the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has left the United Kingdom grappling with economic instability and political turmoil. Against this backdrop, the forthcoming general election holds immense significance in determining the course of the nation’s recovery. As the Labour Party emerges as the front-runner with a substantial lead in the polls, the prospect of a change in government raises hopes for a fresh approach to addressing the country’s https://lnkd.in/dR-w3X2j
Britain’s general election pivotal in post-Brexit recovery
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6moMarkets don't like uncertainty. This graph of Bloomberg says a lot...