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#NASDAQ: GRAB #Food Delivery #Ride-Hailing #Southeast Asia #Uber #Gojek #GOTO
Grab (NASDAQ: GRAB) announced its Q4 and full-year 2023 financial reports, confirming its profitability. The strategic direction of Grab, now profitable, across various regions and product lines has garnered attention. While Grab probably aspires for market value growth akin to Uber's (NYSE: UBER), the significant differences in their moats and strategies suggest a potentially more challenging path for Grab. However, a solid balance sheet provides Grab with strategic flexibility, making it feasible to meet its 2024 profitability targets. Additionally, stock buyback measures could pleasantly surprise investors.
According to Grab's Q4 financial report, the company GMV surpassed $10 billion for the first time, reaching $11 billion. Revenue grew 30% year-over-year to $650 million. The company also achieved its previously announced profitability targets, with an Adjusted EBITDA of $35 million and a GAAP profit of $11 million. This indicates modest stock-based compensation expenses and low debt interest costs. Specifically, Grab's mobility and delivery segments posted GMV of $1.47 billion and $2.65 billion, respectively, with both segments achieving double-digit year-over-year growth. However, quarter-over-quarter growth slowed to 4.8% and 1.5%, respectively. The company's quarterly active user count only grew by 1.7 million (4.7%). As a lifestyle services company, which should theoretically be less affected by seasonal variations, maintaining growth momentum while reducing incentives for profitability appears to be a challenge.
The 2024 guidance of Grab is just passable, with revenue growth expected to be between 14%-17% and Adjusted EBITDA projected to be between $180 million and $200 million, corresponding to a P/E ratio of over 60 times. Grab likely wishes for investors to apply the same standards to it as they do to Uber. However, Uber operates in over 70 countries and more than 10,000 cities, making efficient use of idle labor in developed nations. In contrast, Grab focuses on developing markets in Southeast Asia, where competition continues to enter, raising concerns. Moreover, while Uber concentrates on deepening its services across various transportation scenarios and demographics, Grab has expanded into the financial sector, which has yet to show a clear path to profitability. Considering the policy turmoil faced by live e-commerce platforms like TikTok in Indonesia, the rapid policy changes in Southeast Asia and the complexities of the financial sector present additional challenges for Grab.
Despite its challenges, Grab possesses a significant advantage that many cash-burning internet companies lack: a robust and healthy balance sheet. With total debt at $2.32 billion and cash plus short-term investments amounting to $5.04 billion, Grab is in a strong position for strategic opportunities. Even without-
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