In crude numbers, we need about 50% more FPs, Peds, IM, NPs, PAs in primary care to provide adequacy. That 1975 FP grad put in a standardized 25 years, the current crop of grads will do a fraction of that. I'm personally a 1981 grad, and put in 39 years. The baby boomer retirement cliff will make these numbers look very conservative. There's not much time left before the system begins to crash. What will YOU do to help restore and reinvent this US healthcare system???? healthcarereinvention.com
What would it take to generate sufficient primary care for about 85% of the US population? The Standard Primary Care Year calculates the years of primary care delivery specific to each source and each class year - the product of Years in a career % active % in primary care and a Volume Adjustment. The 1975 FM grads could have efficiently been the source for primary care with 350,000 divided by 25 or 14,000 annual FM grads. The design would have required staying in office FM. Better opportunities in urgent, emergent, hospitalist, and other careers has helped to shrink family medicine to 10.7 Standard Primary Care Years which would require 33,000 annual grads to get the 350,000 But we have a mix of primary care types. Based on their proportions, what would it take to produce the 350,000 per class year? We would need to graduate 6025 family physicians - a boost of 1925 and 4188 pediatricians - up 1338 12563 internal med grads - up 4013 64947 NP grads - up 30747,15000 more than currently produced a year 18367 PA grads - up 5867 and also 6000 more than produced Not having a permanent broad scope primary care source (34 years at 90% active and 90% retention and top volume) - makes it difficult to get to sufficient primary care. The fact of no indication of improvement in primary care retention indicates CMS failure by design Only 250 billion in primary care spending that is eroded by higher costs of delivery year after year makes progress in primary care impossible Expansions of NP and PA with the addition of more new specialties that have better financial designs will continue to defeat NP and PA primary care while building up non-primary care workforce. This will also contribute to the least experienced primary care workforce in our history as the proportions with no or low experience increase and as experienced primary care NP and PA depart. The spending required to get to 350,000 Standard Primary Care Years per class year would need to reach 400 to 500 billion dollars due to 30 billion a year in uncovered increases in the cost of delivery. This would need to get by regulatory capture, RBRVS, and budget neutrality and worst public and private health insurance plans in the 2621 counties. Doubling the investments across each basic health access specialty specific to the 40% of Americans most behind in 2621 counties lowest in health care workforce would be 1. the best health access investment 2. the best health equity investment 3. the best increase in jobs economics where most needed 4. the best increase in local health care and community leaders (team members and spouses contribute) where most needed 5. the best investment in health care where the population is growing fastest 6. penance for 41 health care killing years from CMS 7. the only way for any training interventions to work, just like 1965 to 1980
Value based is not helpful. The people who want to cost cut need DRG, RBRVS, readmissions, and value based to facilitate cost cutting. Somehow designer cost cutting for the purpose of "value" tends to avoid those doing their best to drain our treasuries while causing great harm to basic health access where 40% of Americans have half enough basics. Volume in primary care is different. Dollars spent on primary care support workforce and team members and act to expand what they do in terms of higher functions and access. Shrinking dollars shrink access. It has long been a mistake to apply volume to value across primary care, mental health, women's health, geriatrics, and basic surgical. After all, these are all shrinking by design. Their professionals and other team members are not about profit. They are about access. Dollars diverted from team members to pay for technology, innovation, micromanagement, certifications and non delivery areas shrink actions and access. The value based designs hit hardest where pops are most behind inherently and this is where the finances are already worse for providers Overutilization focus is harmful in these populations suffering from underutilization and inappropriate utilization by design.
Basic Health Access
3moMilbank's PC Scorecard had primary care's share of spending falling from 5.8% in 2010 to 4.6% in 2020. Cuts and higher costs of delivery translate to even more toxicity, fewer team members, lesser team members, higher turnover and turnover costs, more patient needs not met, and fewer staying in primary care. Medicare office payments in counties lowest in workforce are 15% lower, according to Medicare 2011 data. Less money. Less/lesser team members. Higher turnover costs. Failing finances. Falling volume and access are made worse by the costs of innovation and micromanagement The Medicaid SDoH waiver may not work out for those who deliver the care. It is a 3% cut in Medicaid plus more for team members to do before, during, and after encounters. And regarding CMS - another cut planned for 2025.