Paul Stainton’s Post

#tesco hitting its highest market share since February 2022, and accounting for over half of total market sales growth, is the highlight from Worldpanel by Kantar's UK market data for 12 weeks ending 9th June released this morning. 12-wk sales grew by 2.4%, down from the last 12-wk period figure of 3.6%. A continued fall in grocery inflation (2.1% across the last 4 weeks), along with a slight decline in the average number of supermarket visits (16.3 times this month vs. 16.4 in June 2023) has resulted in sales over the last 4 weeks only growing by 1.0%. Tesco’s market share of 27.7% is their highest since Feb 2022. Their continued 3-pronged pricing strategy (Clubcard prices, Aldi Price Match, and Everyday Low Prices) is clearly a winning formula. Of the overall growth in total market value year-on-year (£800M), Tesco have contributed over a half (£416M). #lidl continue to out-perform #aldi, with impressive sales growth of 8.1%, resulting in their market share growing by 0.4%pts YoY. Alongside their increasingly popular loyalty app, Lidl Plus, and their market-leading in-store bakery offer, Lidl are also delivering great differentiation from Aldi (and the other supermarkets) with their very impressive Country Food Themes. One this month was their “Italiamo” Italian theme – over 50 products across chill, frozen, and ambient – brilliantly merchandised in-store, encouraging impulse purchases and resulting in increased basket spend. Aldi’s growth, at just 0.8%, is its lowest since January 2022. They are clearly suffering from all four of the big supermarkets’ price match schemes, so much so that their latest ad campaign takes a pop at such schemes. This may only encourage growth in the number of products included in the Aldi (& Lidl) Price Match campaigns, as recently seen at Tesco, who have added over 100 more products to their Aldi Price Match, all from their standard-tier #privatelabel, including, for the first time, price matching four products from their Plant Chef #vegan range. Sainsbury’s continue to deliver market share growth, up 0.3% pts YoY, whilst #asda continue to struggle, with sales down 4% YoY (-£184M across the 12-week period). #morrisons are faring slightly better (sales up 1.1%). Their business certainly has a spring in its step with new CEO, Rami Baitiéh, making an impressive address at the recent Morrisons/IGD conference, clearly intent on placing the Morrisons customer at the heart of every decision made in a bid to turn the business around. Finally, #iceland are one of the five retailers delivering a YoY share increase, with impressive sales growth of 4.4%. Their private label strategy includes great multi-buy offers on their standard tier range alongside an ever-increasing range of partnerships with other leading brands, resulting in some super #newproductinnovation and differentiation from the competition. #ukretail #supermarkets #ownbrand #waitrose #coop #ocado International Private Label Consult (IPLC)  

#lidl’s highest ever market share, and #aldi losing share for the first time since March 2021, are the highlights from Worldpanel by Kantar's UK market data for 12 weeks ending 17th March released this morning. 12-wk sales grew by 4.2%, down from the last 12-wk period figure of 5.1% as 4-wk grocery #inflation fell from 5.3% to 4.5%, its lowest since February 2022.   Of the £1.355 Bn. sales growth year-on-year, 77% has been driven by just three retailers – #tesco (with sales up 5.8%), #sainsburys (up 6.7%), and Lidl (up 8.8%). All three retailers have increased their market share by 0.4% points year-on-year.   Aldi, with sales up just 3.1%, has seen their share fall by 0.1% point from 9.9% this period in 2023 to 9.8%. They have contributed just 7% of the market value growth, with sales up £97M year-on-year. Store numbers have grown from around 985 last year to 1015 now – around 3% - suggesting that like-for-like store sales are flat. Quite a few empty spaces on shelf have been seen recently. Their roll-out of a new SAP system worldwide may be proving a challenge from a stock availability perspective.   Total discounter share has nevertheless rebounded from 16.9% in the 12 weeks to 18th February to 17.6% this period. One reason is that Christmas sales were included in the last 12-wk period, and these have now dropped out of the latest period – discounter share always falls over Christmas. Furthermore, Lidl continue to grow ahead of the market, at +8.8%, giving them their highest ever market share of 7.8%.  Kantar state that their baked goods are up a huge 24% YoY. Their impressive in-store bakery will be helping this, and Lidl are promoting many in-store bakery products through the Lidl Plus app. Oh, and Aldi doesn’t have an in-store bakery… or app... #morrisons and #waitrose are enjoying an upward trend in sales growth. Although they still lag behind the total market, their growth rates are now ahead of Aldi’s for the first time since the pandemic. Waitrose and Ocado are the only grocers to boost their number of shoppers in the last 12 weeks, according to Kantar. In the last 4 weeks #branded sales growth (6.1%) is ahead of #privatelabel (4.7%) – a significant shift considering the strong gains made by private label over the last 2 years. The increasing use of promotions (many through loyalty apps) and some very strong instore merchandising of some brands will have fuelled this. Within private label, the premium tier is flying with sales up 16.1%. Premium tier features strongly in Meal Deals which have been heavily promoted leading up to Easter. Kantar has revealed that #easter treats are up by £88M compared with the same period in 2023, although a major factor behind this will be that Easter falls one week earlier this year. With two weeks to go from this latest data date to Easter Sunday, the next data set should reveal who the real winners are this Easter - a key trading period for retailers to retain customer loyalty.

As an Aldi employee, it's important to analyze the market trends and adapt strategies accordingly. While facing challenges like a slight decrease in market share, it's crucial to focus on areas for improvement, such as stock availability and customer engagement. Observing competitors' successes, like Lidl's growth and innovative approaches, can offer valuable insights for Aldi's own development. Additionally, emphasizing Aldi's strengths, such as its efficient business model and commitment to quality and value, can help maintain competitiveness in the market. As Easter approaches, leveraging promotions and enhancing the shopping experience can be key to attracting and retaining customers during this critical period. Aldi UK

Market research firm Kantar has found that Lidl GB’s sales grew by 10.9% over the 12 weeks to February 2024, as grocery price inflation fell to 5.3%, the lowest rate since March 2022. #marketresearch #foodinflation #foodindustry

***Grocery growth slows but financial outlook brightens for shoppers*** Wet Weather Impacts Grocery Sales; Asda Continues To Lose Market Share As Tesco And Sainsbury’s Make Gains Latest Kantar: take-home grocery sales up just 1.0% 4 weeks to 9 June, slowest increase since June 2022 (poor weather, falling inflation), average shopper supermarket visits 16.3 this month – down from 16.4 in June last year. ***Lowest grocery inflation since October 2021*** While it might be contributing to slower market growth, a drop in grocery price inflation is leading to improved consumer sentiment. The rate now stands at 2.1%, marking the sixteenth consecutive month that it has fallen. 36% of households described their financial position as comfortable in May 2024, a proportion not surpassed since November 2021 Cost-of-living crisis: 22% of households say they’re struggling, i.e. unable to cover expenses or are just making ends meet. But positive signs, many don’t need to restrict spending quite so much, ( inflation). Hmm … With the men’s UEFA European Football Championship underway***, the supermarkets will be waiting to see if positive performances by England and Scotland can deliver a win at the tills too. The grocers are looking to entice in consumers enjoying this year’s tournament, with the proportion of beer and lager sales on promotion leaping up to over 40% in the latest four weeks ….. Throughout the last tournament held in 2021, sales of food and non-alcoholic drinks in pubs soared by 60% compared with the average month that year Looking at individual retailers, Ocado was the fastest-growing grocer for the fourth month in a row, increasing its sales by 10.7% over the 12 weeks to 9 June – ahead of the total online market, which saw a rise of 4.0%. Lidl increased its market share by 0.4 percentage points to 8.1%, matching its sales growth over the period. 🤔 Aldi had another disappointing month, with sales up by just 0.8% and its market share slipping to 10.0% ***Tesco achieved its highest market share since February 2022, growing 0.6 percentage points to 27.7% after a 4.6% rise in sales*** Sainsbury’s saw its sales increase by 4.9%, with its share of the market increasing to 15.2%. Meanwhile, Asda continued its poor run despite the recent roll-out of several initiatives aimed at boosting trade. Its sales fell 4.0%, with its market sliding from 13.7% to 12.8% over the year. As Morrisons celebrates its 125th anniversary, the grocer’s sales rose by 1.1%, but its share edged down to 8.7%. Iceland saw its sales climb 4.4%, and it now holds 2.4% of the market, up from 2.3% a year ago. This marks the first annual market share increase for the frozen-food specialist since March last year. Waitrose welcomed 188,000 new shoppers through its doors over the 12 weeks, a greater increase than any other grocer. Its sales grew by 3.5%, with its market share holding at 4.5%. Source: Kantar / KamCity

Sainsbury's’s achieves remarkable market share growth, marking its most significant increase since July 1997. Recent data from Kantar reveals a notable rise of 0.5 percentage points in the 12 weeks to 4 August. Sainsbury’s share now stands at 15.3%, a notable increase from 14.8% a year ago, making it the fastest-growing among traditional #supermarkets, with sales up by 5.2%. In contrast, Tesco continues its winning streak, consistently gaining market share every month since August 2023. Tesco's market hold rose by 0.6 percentage points to 27.6%, accompanied by a substantial 4.9% increase in sales. #Supermarkets #MarketShare #SalesData #BusinessGrowth #grocery #retail

Headlines from #Kantar data release this week are: #Ocado takes the title for a 2nd period running as the fastest growing retailer at +12.5%, #Aldi & #Lidl combined share hits 18%. #Inflation now down to +3.2% for the last 4 weeks and #consumers saved £1.3bn due to #promotions. For the 12 weeks ended 14 April 24 the market grew +4.3% and with inflation for the whole period at +4.1%, this indicates volume growth is now continuing the momentum seen in the first part of 2024. Ocado share is 1.9% up yr. on yr. by +0.2%. #Online now holds a 12% share of the market, with #Tesco stating in their recent results that it accounts for 13% of thier UK sales, it is clear the Online channel is seeing a positive trend. Lidl continues their strong run achieving a record 8% market share up +0.4% yr. on yr. Aldi’s pedestrian run continues despite hitting a 10% market share, although this is down -0.1% yr. on yr. Lidl have added £224m more sales vs LY nearly 2.5 times more than Aldi’s £91m from less stores. #Sainsbury and Tesco both gain +0.4% market share with growth of +6.8% and +5.9% respectively, both have seen 9 periods of growth ahead of the market supported no doubt by thier Aldi price match and their loyalty card price promotions. Morrisons are starting to see improved trading and have maintained share yr. on yr. Asda however seemed to have lost some momentum since Christmas with a share loss of -0.6% vs LY and sales below last year. 29.3% of sales were on promotion helping consumers save on average £46 per household. Over Easter we saw a lot of promotional activity on both PL and Brands. We are also seeing more brands in the discounters and with a combined share now at 18% it is not surprising the brands need a presence .   Despite the pressure consumers are under we still managed to spend a whopping £100m on Confectionary in the run up to Easter, whilst some of this was driven by higher prices, Easter Eggs saw a 3% volume up lift. It was also interesting to see the data on increased consumption of snacking with occasions involving chocolate up by 93m annually in 2023 vs 2013, perhaps not good news for the health of the nation, although Kantar also noted in the same period, we consumed 314m more pieces of fruit. Whilst inflation is starting to moderate, prices on average are over 27% higher than the same period in 2020, and we are yet to see the impact of recent weather impacts on UK and European crops, the NLW increase and record prices for some commodities. Inflation may rise again     Over a 4-year period we have seen some major changes in the structure of the market with Aldi and Lidl both adding 2% share, outside of these two only Tesco +0.6% and Ocado +0.3% have seen share increases, with the rest all seeing share no change or declines totalling 4.9%. Is Online profitable? What does Aldi need to change Loyalty card? Instore Bakery? Better availability? What do you think?

#tesco hitting 28% market share, whilst #ocado being the fastest growing grocer for the eight month in a row, are the key take-outs from Worldpanel by Kantar's UK market data for 12 weeks ending 29th September released earlier today. 12-wk sales grew by 2.9%, slightly down the last 12-wk period figure of 3.0%%, with Grocery #inflation rising from 1.7% to 2.0% across the last 4 weeks. Tesco’s share has increased by a very impressive 0.6% points YoY, hitting the 28% mark for the first time since December 2017. Between that time and now #aldi and #lidl have increased their combined share from 12% to 17.9%. Tesco’s achievement of regaining their 28% share is a triumph, reflected by their first half results of profits increasing by 10%. #sainsburys sales growth of 5.1% is just short of Tesco’s 5.2%, as both retailers continue to enjoy success from their #loyalty prices and Aldi Price Match schemes. #asda continue to struggle – the implementation of new systems may be one reason for some availability problems seen in stores. #morrisons have stabilised their sales, with share flat YoY following many periods of share decline. The new Morrisons More loyalty prices seem to be resonating with their customers. Aldi’s sales and share decline may have bottomed out. Their YoY sales growth was only 0.3% in July, 1.7% points behind the total market. In this latest period, it is 1.8%, 1.2% points behind the total market. Some great new #christmas products have appeared in their stores ready for the key festive trading period, and right now there's an impressive #halloween range instore. However, Aldi will be somewhat concerned that the gap in market share between them and Lidl is now just 1.7% points. This has narrowed from 1.9% points in the last period and 2.3% points versus this time last year. The #online market grew by 3.5% over the last 12 weeks, ahead of the total market. The UK online grocery market is now worth £3.7 billion with 22.1% of households shopping for groceries online. Ocado are fuelling this, enjoying market leading sales growth of 10%. Expanding their #privatelabel range over recent months may have helped this as they look to offer great value-for-money products. With thanks to Richard Harrow for helping to compile this. #ukretail #supermarkets #competition #brands #ownbrands International Private Label Consult (IPLC)

🛒 Unlocking Growth: Strategies for New Entrants in the Grocery Market 🚀 With the latest data revealing Tesco's resurgence and Ocado's online growth, it’s clear the UK grocery sector remains competitive. For new players aiming to disrupt this landscape, success will depend on innovation, agility, and customer-centric strategies. Here’s how new entrants can gain a foothold: 1. Data-Driven Personalization🔍 Leverage AI and advanced analytics to create personalized shopping experiences. Tailored offers and product recommendations build deeper connections and loyalty with consumers. 2. Subscription Models for Recurring Revenue📦 Secure consistent sales with subscription services for essentials or curated products. Enhance retention with membership perks like free delivery or exclusive deals. 3. Local Sourcing & Community Focus 🌱 Tap into consumer demand for local, sustainable products by partnering with local suppliers. This not only builds trust but differentiates from large chains focused on mass distribution. 4. Sustainability at the Core🌍 Sustainable operations are non-negotiable today. Adopt plastic-free packaging, zero-waste policies, and transparent supply chains to win eco-conscious shoppers. 5. Tech-Enhanced In-Store Experiences🤖 Integrate smart technologies like self-checkout kiosks and digital pricing to create a seamless, engaging in-store journey. A frictionless shopping experience is a powerful differentiator. 6. Radical Transparency 🛡 Build trust through openness—share details about sourcing, pricing, and sustainability efforts. Transparency builds credibility and fosters long-term loyalty. 7. Flexible, Small-Format Stores 🏙 Launch urban-focused, small-format stores tailored to time-pressed customers. Quick, convenient, and hyper-local—perfect for today’s urban shoppers. 8. Collaborative Branding🤝 Partner with complementary industries like wellness or meal-kit brands to expand your offering and tap into new customer segments. Collaboration multiplies visibility and value. 9. Health and Wellness Focus🍏 Respond to the growing demand for functional foods with product lines that emphasize health benefits. Clear labeling and expert-backed advice can help differentiate your brand. 10. Omnichannel Mastery & Smart Logistics📲 A seamless omnichannel presence is crucial. Integrate online, mobile, and in-store experiences, supported by efficient logistics like same-day delivery and AI-driven inventory management. The grocery market is evolving rapidly, and for new players, success will depend on the ability to innovate and prioritize customer-centric strategies. By embracing advanced technologies, focusing on sustainability, and developing community-driven models, new entrants can disrupt traditional structures and build lasting relationships with their customer base. #GroceryMarket #RetailInnovation #Sustainability #Omnichannel #CustomerExperience #Strategy #NewMarketEntrants #Personalization

Kantar: Lidl and Ocado named fastest growing retailers as Asda decline continues. Lidl has been named the fastest-growing retailer with a bricks-and-mortar presence for the 15th period in a row, according to fresh Kantar data. For the 12 weeks to 3 November, Lidl secured 326,000 additional shoppers, more than any other retailer, and saw particularly strong fresh produce sales growth at 22%. Online supermarket Ocado saw the largest growth over the period, boosting sales by 9.5%, while Tesco and Sainsbury’s also outperformed the wider market. Tesco’s sales rose by 4.6% taking it to 27.9% of the market, up 0.6 percentage points on last year, while spending through the tills at Sainsbury’s climbed 4.4%, making its overall share 15.5%. Sainsbury’s also saw a rise in both shopper numbers and trips during the period.  While Morrisons sales grew at a slower rate, at 2.4%, this outpaced the market average for the first time since June 2021. #kanta #lidl #ocado #morrrison #retail #supermarket #growth #sainsbury