Niyaz Laiq’s Post

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Seed stage investing in India

Quick Commerce in India is one of the world’s most expensive experiments in PMF to re-route consumer’s wallet share. At least $3B will be spent in the next 12-18 months in trying to gain market share across all categories. How will this play out in India beyond serving daily needs? Some scattered thoughts: - Let alone in fashion, Myntra has 90,000 SKUs across 1500 brands in beauty. In long tail categories, assortment and price comparison wins the customer. QC may gracefully retreat, but make traditional e-commerce deliver faster in the process - Or alternatively, QC can set up much larger city warehouses (cost?), build assortment in certain categories, and begin delivery within a few hours (fewer large format warehouses, more order batching) - So, daily needs and urgent needs will remain in 10 min delivery; every other category will converge across platforms to same day delivery. Amazon is already delivering long tail products in 6 hours - In a fight between unit economics and growth, unit economics always wins within a reasonable time. As ability to raise for a category/sector reaches a maxima, growth either brings superior economics quickly - or - if it’s the opposite - the experiment is wound down very fast. In this case, $3B of unspent funding means this particular experiment has plenty of time - 12-18 months ahead of it - *As for the majority of D2C brands in fashion/beauty/toys/home decor, who in any scenario will get lost in the QC maze of consumer's choosing top search results, just as they did on Amazon+++, their best move remains Meta acquisition + offline* - there will be a few D2C brands that will get to 40-50CR overnight - in the next 12 months - on QC alone, within daily/urgent needs or just by offering really great price points - already seeing this with new consumer electronics brands (e.g. bluetooth headphones) - About $7-8B or more was deployed during COVID into Europe's quick commerce startups and after spending through that and 50M+ app downloads later, two of a dozen players are left - focused on daily needs. Having said that, none of these players were existing e-commerce platforms - and had no transacting user base/distribution to leverage unlike most players in India (with the exception of one). Insane CaCs, pretty low basket sizes - CaC will likely not be justified in smaller towns which don't require at least a few dozen dark stores

RAJA RANJAN

Exporter | Blockchain | NIT

1mo

But anyway in india till now major ecommerce companies are not profitable, now came the quick commerce. Don't know when they will see the face of profit. It seems like battle of discounts from the business point of view

Mukesh Agrawal

Empowering All to Advertise | TheMediaAnt

1mo

Some incredible and logical thoughts. Thanks for sharing

Mansimran Singh

Looking for talented people in field of E-commerce and Garments manufacturing.

1mo

Very crisp and accurate depiction of current QC frenzy !

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