Nick Pollard’s Post

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Group Finance Director

The UK budget changes to Employers National Insurance of a 1.2% increase is significant across the employment cost envelope but the threshold changes are more significant leading to a new unplanned 15% employment tax for business equating to £615 per employee. Given that 99.9% of the 5.7 million UK businesses are SME businesses this will disproportionately impact those businesses who are generally considered to be the entrepreneurial growth engine of the economy. It will equally apply to the 8,000 UK non SME businesses who might be argued have access and capability to stronger balance sheets but which are also in some cases operating in monopolistic sectors like energy, or even global corporates like banking and IT. That NI change is also regardless of what sector those businesses operate in, the public sector where this tax will be a double whammy cost alongside the 2% efficiency requirement but also charities and affordable housing businesses who have constrained revenue streams. Most of those charitable socially oriented businesses have had an extremely challenging last year let alone last 4 to 5 years continuing to operate on the thinnest of margins but there is no “means testing” of this NI change in terms of businesses that contribute beyond profits. So much for rent settlements and contributions to build new homes, also part of the budget, which will now be revisited by business as a result of this change. Given employees are the biggest cost it would make logical sense that AI growth may perhaps accelerate to meet the need for non NI burdened systems and processes being installed at the expense of employees, an unintended consequence which carries risk. Business is also going to have to bear down on pay settlements to accommodate that cost hike or alternatively prices rise as a result of the change. In our sector forcing up the benefit bill!! Whilst the change was undoubtedly necessary perhaps a bit more thought of the application and its unintended consequences and moral hazard might have been helpful. Markets never lie and they are now digesting the change.

Garry Sneddon

CEO engage-me.io: Driven, AI Powered Engagement Platform for Insights, Arrears & Repairs. Delivers compliance with the Transparency, Influence and Accountability Standard.

1mo

Good analysis Nick Pollard - UK increased borrowing costs also a worrying side effect of budget.

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Phil Morrice

Managing Partner at Alexander Sloan

1mo

Good points Nick. Charities are disproportionately hit by this change. Commercial businesses will get tax-relief on the increase which will at least take a bit of the sting out of it.

Colette Benham

Director of HR & Corporate Services, ACHA and Chair/ member at Argyll & Bute Care & Repair

1mo

Allan and I were having that conversation yesterday…..

Andy Smith

Training and Development Manager at SPS

1mo

Insightful as always Nick

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