November brought mixed fortunes for retail, shaped by Black Friday and weak consumer confidence, as shoppers held out for promotions. Data from the Office for National Statistics, released this morning, highlights distortions across adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted measures due to the later timing of half-term and Black Friday falling into different comparative periods. The underlying picture shows Autumn Budget anxiety combined with a mild start to November to delay spending on seasonal items, including a sharp decline in clothing volumes. It is critical delayed spending materialises this Christmas to mitigate the poor start to retail’s all-important festive season. However, cautiousness lingers, slowing momentum in the economy. Households continue to adjust to higher prices, elevated interest rates and real wages growth at a meagre 2%. The hope is for a late surge in festive spending, following a year that has seen consumers focus spending on carefully timed promotions and essentials, while deferring bigger purchases. Great to share thoughts on the November retail sales data with Bloomberg's Irina Anghel this morning.
