Alexandra Newton’s Post

Here they are! Our first-of-the-season polls of critical battleground states Georgia and North Carolina. How has the influx of new residents to both states changed the political landscape heading into the 2024 election? We've got data on Biden vs. Trump, top issues, and whether a third party candidate like RFK Jr. would make a difference. Check out all the results for BOTH states: https://lnkd.in/eSKZhGus

https://bit.ly/3WKqYzp Discover what Florida's swing voters think about Biden's withdrawal and Kamala Harris's readiness to lead. See how these insights shape the 2024 election landscape. Dive deeper into their opinions now. Read more: https://bit.ly/4doMM9e #Election2024 #VoterInsights #Harris2024 #SwingVoters

Follow the money! Following up on previous posts - Donald Trump looks very likely to be victorious in his comeback as the tactical electoral votes continue to be in his favor. The majority does not make a President - and while VP Kamala might have the majority, she represents a continuation of US policies which might not resonate with voters. Moving on the global markets, 2 hot wars in the world and the potential of Israel and Iran potentially exchanging fire once again could disrupt global energy markets in a negative way (volatility) causing prices to surge and inflation to reappear. King dollar trade as the safe haven trade is always the sure bet. Domestically, Bank of Canada remains on a rate decrease path and we could see 75bps lower before the end of the calendar year. Key measures have slowed and it looks like they played it safe for too long as you can only feed your crystal ball with lagging indicators for so long. This however will bode well for consumers who have felt a pinch and fuel a housing market which could be bid up driven by macro forces and domestic policy changes (CMHC rules). The next few months will be interesting as all eyes are on the Middle East and the US elections. One thing is a sure bet - we will see way more volatility as tariff fears begin to set in with a Donald trump presidency.

I wrote a 200+ page book in 2015 with a detailed analysis of the American political system, and it predicted that Trump would win the presidential election in 2016. None of the primaries had taken place, and no one even believed that Trump would get the nomination. The fundamental basis for this prediction was that 2016 was the beginning of a realignment in American politics. This was interrupted by the pandemic in 2020 and is resuming now in the 2024 election, which has many similarities to the 1980 presidential race. The book: "Presidential Impolitics: Donald Trump and the 2016 Election".

Another point of view from Rusty Guinn at ET: Manufactured Consensus - "The amount of money required to move these prediction markets is no longer trivial. And unlike Brexit, the next most important political referendum in the world – the election of the President of the United States – doesn’t have such a direct transmission mechanism to a small set of deep, tradeable markets. That is, despite the protestations of your friends and family on Facebook, it is rarely obvious how US election outcomes will be discounted and priced by market participants. Could you move Polymarket the amount it moved in the last few days with $10-20 million and a plan? Sure. Could you make enough money from doing so with enough certainty that it would actually go your way that you didn’t care about losing the $10-20 million bet? Probably not. Even if you could predict what markets would be affected by one candidate winning, it isn’t abundantly clear that leading polls or prediction markets by a lot a month ahead of a turnout election is always a desirable way to produce the outcome you wanted. But what if you cared about something else? What if changing common knowledge itself was enough? What if you had a platform that could sustain a Narrative at whatever limit arbitrage conditions and frictional costs created between different prediction markets? ... What changed common knowledge was a few people moving a lot of money in a thin market and the man with the biggest PA system in the world seeking to manufacture consensus by shouting into the void that this is real. It won’t be the last time this happens. The more we embrace the lie being whispered in our ears – that social networks work to democratize influence and narrative formation – the more systematically we make ourselves part of their manufactured consensus." https://lnkd.in/eEPZ_QRb

MOMENTUM: Kamala Harris is now more popular than Joe Biden or Donald Trump have been at any point in the 2024 election cycle, according to a new survey. See the numbers here: https://bit.ly/3LNgI30 #VoteKamalaHarris2024

We woke up on Wednesday morning to the news that Donald Trump had won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, defeating Kamala Harris, his main Democratic opponent. It was everywhere… But here’s the question on my mind: Was this truly a defeat of the candidate, or did unconscious bias win out instead? Would the outcome have been different if Trump’s main opponent had been a man? Maybe yes, maybe no. But one thing is clear: unconscious bias, intertwined with deeply embedded cultural norms, still shows up subtly in voting behavior. Many voters may support the idea of a female president in principle, yet these biases can still influence their choices. For over two centuries, the U.S. presidency has been a male-dominated domain. Though women have made great strides in political representation, it’s difficult to overturn such an entrenched history overnight. The absence of female presidents reveals lingering systemic barriers that shape perceptions of leadership at the highest level. The U.S. is one of the world’s oldest democracies, with a legacy of breaking barriers and championing gender equality in many fields. Yet, it still lags behind other nations in electing a female head of state. To make true progress, we need to challenge assumptions about who is “fit” to hold the highest office. This is not to say that America will never elect a woman president, but it does mean we need a serious cultural shift. We must rethink our ideas of leadership, continue promoting female representation, and remain mindful of how biases shape our choices. Let’s open up this conversation. What do you think needs to change for the U.S. to be ready to accept a woman as President? #USPresidentialElection #FutureOfLeadership #GenderEquality #UnconsciousBias #CulturalChange #DiversityAndInclusion #BreakingBarriers

Our revised forecast shows the presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is, in effect, a toss-up. Bookmark this page to see who is ahead in the race https://econ.st/3SR1rSu

A very well written, that goes into the details, policy by policy on why Kamala is the right candidate in this election. I suggest giving it a read.