60% of restaurants fail in their first year. 80% of restaurants fail within five years. Is growing cannabis is equally difficult? No. No it’s not. Michigan now has about 1,000 cultivation licenses in its AU/Rec market, which launched in December, 2019. So, it’s been about 4.5 years… Obviously, the first couple years were VERY good to cultivators, especially if they were able to get plants in the ground in 2020 - but the market really started to compress in 2022 when the supply finally caught up to demand. That means, in many ways, businesses have only been operating in the ‘real’ market (a market not inflated by scarcity) for a couple of years. Do we then expect 80% of grows to fail by 2027? Even if we extrapolate the statistics across all business types, where 45% of all new businesses fail within five years, and 65% fail within ten, we should expect about two thirds of all cultivators (and processors, and dispensaries) to shut their doors between 2025-2030. Do we think those numbers are accurate? Is this a bad thing if so? Or is it the inevitable outcome of new opportunity in a free market? The next question is, how would you avoid it? Would you want to see limited licenses? State mandated price minimums? Subsidies? Why does no one bat an eye when new clothing stores open and close, restaurants open and close, or digital startups open and close..? But when cannabis companies fail (many of which are founded by owners with little business experience), we start to question the very foundations of free market capitalism. I see the same people who whine about ‘big government’ and the ‘socialist left’ begging for government intervention to fix the cannabis industry. Because their wallets are in danger. I see so-called activists demonizing legalization. Becuase their wallets are in danger. I see ‘legacy operators’ begging for more enforcement. Becuase their wallets are in danger. My question is: When did cannabis get so f****** SOFT? Personally, I’m tired of all the crying. Where is the toughness I used to see? Where is the ‘f—- the man’ attitude? Where is the solution-focused conversation? We founded startups in an incredibly volatile, highly regulated space, with extremely cutthroat competition. This was always going to be absolutely brutal. We all knew this going in. If you say you didn’t, you were either lying to yourself then, or you’re lying to yourself now. Right now, about four years in to Rec cannabis in Michigan, far less than 50% of grows have failed (anyone have good data here? - my guess is it’s under 20%) - so, arguably, this business is EASIER (much easier even) than running a restaurant. So what are we all complaining about??? Where’s the uproar for restaurants? There isn’t any. Becuase that’s the free market.
I have to mention; on the restaurant statistics/numbers side, there should be a big bold asterisk by that failure rate. Remember, the barrier to entry into cannabis is much higher and more difficult for the majority, restaurants are much lower barrier given popularity of micro-concepts or multi functional concepts (cafes switching to other concepts at night). As well, the failure rate in hospitality is so high because it is tied directly to that lower barrier; there are tons of people who watch tv and Kitchen Nightmares, or Top Chef and think "I could do that, having a restaurant looks fun", this is equal in amount to the quantity of people who receive a chunk of inheritance or money, and think starting a restaurant or hospitality venture is the way to go. There is absolutely a formula to lead you on the pathway of success in restaurants and the ones who nail it and stay the course are wildly successful, the rest, dilute our success rates and juice up the failure percentages because they really had no business being in it in the first place. I think cannabis due to its infancy on the adult rec side, still doesn't have that hyper-dilution (with exceptions for problem states like Oregon, Oklahoma), due to lack of volume still.
The Cannabis industry is more scrutinized due to it’s false belief that every operator will become a billionaire, at least that’s what the green rush sayers told you. It’s still in its infancy, give it time to compare to restaurants or any other business. And isn’t “failed” subjective? going out of business is only one way to say you failed.
Agreed, but I do understand why people feel like this. When you have a "green rush" followed up by fairly normal market conditions, the change seems a lot more severe than it is.
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