What will the second Trump presidency mean for founders and early-stage technology companies? To explore this question, we spoke with Grace Koh, who advised President Trump at the White House on innovation and technology during his first term. Koh emphasized a central guiding principle: past is present. If you want to understand what a second Trump term might mean for the tech sector, start by looking at what he did in the first. Links to the full episode are in the comments. Here are four key takeaways: 1. Personnel is Policy -Key Trump technology appointees from the first term may return, shaping strategy for emerging technologies. -For example, Michael Kratsios served as White House CTO in the first term, during which he spearheaded initiatives on AI. He is now leading tech policy for the Trump Transition Team. -FCC member Brendan Carr, who was first appointed to the FCC in 2017, will be nominated by Trump to serve as FCC Chair. He is advocating for regulatory authority over the hyperscale tech platforms, or in his words, the “censorship cartel.” Given the FCC’s purview over broadcasting and internet, this would mark a major shift in tone towards Silicon Valley. -Other appointees are newer to the Trump orbit and have strong agendas. For instance, Paul Atkins was recently nominated as Chair of the SEC and is expected to be friendlier to the cryptocurrency industry than his predecessor. 2. Competition with China -The Trump administration will likely double down on export controls, tariffs, and industrial policies aimed at countering China's technology advances. Founders in areas like semiconductors and quantum computing should anticipate tightened regulations and scrutiny. 3. Deregulating AI -Expect a hands-off approach when it comes to AI. This could create opportunities for startups by reducing compliance burdens, though states like California may step in with their own rules. 4. Technology-Driven Government Efficiency -The DOGE initiative to modernize federal operations could open doors for GovTech companies deploying AI and software to replace personnel and cut costs. However, discretionary spending cuts might impact funding for innovation. Two other big, open questions are immigration and antitrust. Trump’s longstanding stance on immigration suggests he may pull back on H1B visas, which could have significant implications for the talent pipelines for tech startups. It isn’t clear how FTC and DOJ will approach antitrust under a second Trump administration, whether they will maintain their current aggressive stance or shift direction. It is worth noting that the current DOJ suit against Google started under Trump. Lastly, there is “first buddy” Elon Musk. Musk has substantial business interests across the automotive, space, and AI industries, and may use his position of influence to shape regulations or other government actions to preference his companies over those of his competitors.
Zac Geinzer
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Nate Loewentheil "You don't pick on my little sister, I get to pick on my little sister" referring to US pushing back on Euro regulations on tech companies might be my favorite quote from Political Capital so far
VC @ Commonweal Ventures
2whttps://open.spotify.com/episode/35ank4KFrRfhawmsh8UXFZ?si=uaQAPXKYRXS-TOysFxXYrg