Self consumption of its own Kool Aid fuels nuclear industry notions of a great renaissance
Co-Founder & CEO at Solcast: Solar Irradiance API for resource assessment, monitoring & forecasting (a DNV company). Renewables and environmental data entrepreneur. Meteorologist.
Is nuclear really about to suddenly get much cheaper, safer and faster? I've been struggling to understand recent investments in #nuclear by Google Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft, the smart tech leaders backing nuclear including Bill Gates David Friedberg Sam Altman, and the ambitious nuclear plans of a major political party here in Australia. This support challenged my understanding of nuclear as basically being expensive, dangerous and very slow to deploy. I went to the DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2024, which projects that net nuclear additions (new minus retired) will be barely positive over the next 15 years, and also says: "SMR technology is increasingly praised as the next-generation technology that will take over the power sector. However, just like existing nuclear plant designs, SMRs need to demonstrate cost competitiveness, high safety levels, and solve non-proliferation and waste-management challenges." I also looked through these graphs from Ember and Nat Bullard, which seem to show that nuclear (for now) is a static technology being rapidly overtaken by #solar and #batterystorage So.... is this picture about to shift massively during the next decade? Or are these tech leaders too unaware of the domain dependence of their success?