Monte Erfourth’s Post

Tactical Brilliance, Strategic Blindness: The Surge & The Limits of Counterinsurgency in Iraq This article will examine the U.S. COIN efforts in Iraq from late 2006 to 2011. The Article will assess the successes and limitations of Operation Iraqi Freedom, highlighting how COIN operations have often achieved short-term tactical successes but struggled to deliver long-term strategic outcomes, chief among them being stability. Additionally, we will consider the regional impacts of these counterinsurgency and counterterrorism efforts, particularly on Middle Eastern geopolitics and internal dynamics. This article is dedicated to everyone who served in Iraq. If effort were all that was required for a positive outcome, the Middle East would be a different place. https://lnkd.in/eZugfKy5

1/ 🧵 Unpacking the truth behind Mosul's fall: 10 years ago, ISIS captured Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city. But was it merely radical aggression, or was there more at play? A deep dive into the controversial history reveals unsettling details. #Mosul #ISIS 2/ 📜 According to declassified intel and investigative reports, the U.S. and its allies might have used ISIS as a proxy to achieve geopolitical goals, like destabilizing the region and curtailing Iranian influence. A 2012 DIA memo hints at the strategic value of a "Salafist principality" in Eastern Syria. #Geopolitics #MiddleEast 3/ 🔁 The flow of arms: Research indicates that U.S. and Saudi efforts to arm "moderate rebels" in Syria inadvertently equipped ISIS. Weapons intended for other groups quickly ended up with ISIS, bolstering their military capability dramatically. #ArmsTrade #ConflictArmamentResearch 4/ 🚫 Strategic non-interference? The article suggests that the U.S. had the intel and capability to stop ISIS but chose not to act effectively. This inaction may have been a calculated move to push for political changes in Iraq, particularly against PM Nouri al-Maliki, viewed as too close to Iran. #USForeignPolicy #Iraq 5/ 💡 This review challenges us to rethink the narrative of U.S. involvement in the Middle East. Actions taken under the guise of combating terrorism might have actually fostered more instability, allowing extremist groups like ISIS to thrive. https://lnkd.in/gA6Dd-8A

1/ 🧵 Unpacking the truth behind Mosul's fall: 10 years ago, ISIS captured Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city. But was it merely radical aggression, or was there more at play? A deep dive into the controversial history reveals unsettling details. #Mosul #ISIS 2/ 📜 According to declassified intel and investigative reports, the U.S. and its allies might have used ISIS as a proxy to achieve geopolitical goals, like destabilizing the region and curtailing Iranian influence. A 2012 DIA memo hints at the strategic value of a "Salafist principality" in Eastern Syria. #Geopolitics #MiddleEast 3/ 🔁 The flow of arms: Research indicates that U.S. and Saudi efforts to arm "moderate rebels" in Syria inadvertently equipped ISIS. Weapons intended for other groups quickly ended up with ISIS, bolstering their military capability dramatically. #ArmsTrade #ConflictArmamentResearch 4/ 🚫 Strategic non-interference? The article suggests that the U.S. had the intel and capability to stop ISIS but chose not to act effectively. This inaction may have been a calculated move to push for political changes in Iraq, particularly against PM Nouri al-Maliki, viewed as too close to Iran. #USForeignPolicy #Iraq 5/ 💡 This review challenges us to rethink the narrative of U.S. involvement in the Middle East. Actions taken under the guise of combating terrorism might have actually fostered more instability, allowing extremist groups like ISIS to thrive. https://lnkd.in/gA6Dd-8A

In my latest piece for the The Stimson Center where I explore how #Hezbollah has mastered the skill of “agency of chaos.” Whether it's the #Israel’s invasion of #Lebanon in 1982, the #US war on terror, or the #Arab Spring, Hezbollah has consistently used power vacuums to establish its presence. Originating as a local group in southern #Lebanon, it has transformed into a powerful entity across the #Middle_East, enabled by to the regional wars and chaos. Read more about how this group has become a significant player in the region.

CNN Jornal da Tarde | April 20, 2024 Weekly Summary: War in the Middle East 1. Attack on Isfahan, in Iran 🚨: Unclaimed attack, so it is premature to associate it with Israel, which normally takes clear defensive actions. 2. Iraq Attack 🔥: This attack coincides with the visit of the Iraqi Prime Minister to the White House (focused on the withdrawal of American troops), and suggests that it is an internal manifestation of repudiation of American influence, with no obvious links with Israel. 3. Erdogan-Hamas Leader Meeting 🤝: This meeting and its solemnity marks a point of diplomatic tension. While many states and organizations classify Hamas as a terrorist entity, for Erdogan, it represents a resistance group. This meeting highlights the complexities of political alliances in the region, with hopes that it can facilitate the resolution of the Israel-Hamas conflict. See the link ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/d9FnCKFU

ACADEMY SITREP – CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA REIGNITES AS REBEL FORCES SEIZE ALEPPO December 2, 2024 | https://lnkd.in/eER7tmP7 What has Happened: -The civil war in Syria, which started more than a decade ago, took a significant turn over the weekend when rebels, including many with the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), took control of the major city of Aleppo in northern Syria. -HTS, previously known as the Nusra Front (which broke away from al Qaeda in 2016), has been consolidating control over Aleppo as its forces moved south toward the Assad government’s other major centers of power (Hama and Damascus). -This fast-moving offensive took both Syrian leader Assad and his Russian supporters by surprise, but earlier today, the two militaries conducted joint air raids on areas that the rebels had seized over the weekend. -Over the past three years, Russia (which has navy and air bases in Syria) has moved weapons and other military assets out of Syria in order to source armaments (including the S-300 air defense system) for its war in Ukraine. -For over 10 years, Russia and Iran have supported the Assad regime, but both countries now find themselves over-extended due to the war in Ukraine and the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, where Iran’s proxy forces (Hamas and Hezbollah) have been severely degraded. -In addition, the U.S. maintains hundreds of troops in northeast Syria as part of an anti-terrorism coalition, and it has also continued carrying out strikes against Islamist groups in the country. Why it Matters: To read analysis from our Geopolitical Intelligence Group, see the full report at: https://lnkd.in/eER7tmP7 #academysecurities #missiondriven #geopolitical #geopolitics #capitalmarktets #debtcapitalmarkets #ipo #rates #macro #geointelligence #syria #aleppo #middleeast #russia #ukraine #assad #iran #hts #SITREP Academy Securities Academy Asset Management Academy Ventures

In this fine article Christopher Faulkner, Jaclyn Johnson-Avalos and Zachary Streicher produce an original and considered view of the the long-term consequences of the engagement of African states with Russian PMCs. Key take-away for me: "As Africa Corps continues to expand across the Sahel, American foreign policy practitioners and observers would be well served to look beyond the immediate effects of their activities through a zero-sum lens." Article here: https://lnkd.in/emzc4yb8

Three years after the Taliban's takeover of Kabul, we examined the evolving geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. This exclusive discussion features insights from our founder Faisal Al Mutar, Afghanistan Director Mansoor Ramizy, and Iraq Director Wameedh Alshaibi. We delve into the impact of Taliban governance on regional stability and global security, the shifting dynamics in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the crucial actions Iraq must take to mitigate rising extremism. Watch now for a nuanced understanding of these complex dynamics and their implications for the future. https://ow.ly/p5Ub50TgYWq

🏴🇦🇫🇺🇸 How real is the threat from ISIS? Continuing yesterday's topic about the artificial hype around the threat from the Afghan branch of the "Islamic State", it's worth remembering the statement from the so-called "United Front of Afghanistan" (UFA) on June 5 about the presence of 9,000 ISIS fighters on the borders of Central Asian countries. When such figures are voiced, especially in a specific area on the borders of the post-Soviet republics, there should always be factual data based on credible intelligence. And a statement from one of the many anti-Taliban factions does not qualify as a "trusted source". 📌 Northern Afghanistan is a mountainous area with small valleys and the Bactrian plain. That is, to hide nine thousand people unnoticed by the Taliban and neighboring states is an impossible task even in theory. Either there is not enough space, or everything is in plain sight. Therefore, when these virtual groups (of which there are more than 20 since the Taliban came to power) talk about some kind of threat to the region, one needs to see the true meaning of these "warnings" as pressure on the countries of the region that are cooperating with Russia. Whether this is actually possible given the very tough fight the Taliban are waging against terrorism is no longer that important for the Western media. The main thing is to spread the information through major media outlets and make the population believe in the existence of a threat to peaceful life. ❗️The Afghan branch of the "Islamic State", also known as "Wilayat Khorasan", is a very convenient cover for the collective West, and Sadat and other Afghan generals who fled to the US or Britain are a great tool for legitimizing the version of the growth of ISIS combat capabilities. This is what they are trying to "sell" in the CIS space. #Afghanistan #USA #terrorism #CentralAsia

The framing of Hamas as a terrorist organization by Israel, the U.S., and India must be understood in the context of a broader narrative that conflates struggles for self-determination with terrorism. This framing has significant implications for public perception, legitimization of military actions, and the overall dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is essential to recognize that while Hamas has engaged in violent actions, the underlying issues of occupation, oppression, and the quest for rights must also be addressed to foster a more nuanced understanding of the conflict and its humanitarian consequences.