Mustread - Bridgewater Associates - US Exceptionalism: Drivers of Equity Outperformance and What’s Needed for a Repeat Key highlights: US equity outperformance has been driven by a combination of (a) faster revenue growth, (b) bigger margin expansion, and (c) rising P/E multiples—in roughly equal proportion. Today, strong US EPS growth outperformance is already reflected in the prices, at a time when many of the largest drivers of backward-looking US equity outperformance cannot be counted on to repeat going forward (from globalization to tax cuts to the massive fiscal support for profits). A lot now boils down to the ability of the US tech sector to deliver and AI to unleash a broad productivity impact across sectors. The bar for continued outperformance is high—but the potential is also there. US corporate profitability has been supported by both (a) better capital deployment choices by a more competent and better-aligned management, and (b) operating in a more pro-corporate environment, including support from fiscal. The fact that US companies delivered superior earnings and price performance over the past decade (which was most pronounced in tech) got priced in via these higher long-term cash flow expectations. This dynamic is what sets a higher hurdle for outperformance looking ahead. When considering the outlook for the S&P 500 from here, it is important to consider that many of the biggest drivers of the backward-looking returns discussed above (e.g., rising margins, rising P/E ratios, massive fiscal support to profits) are also what sets a high bar for outperformance looking ahead. And while the US continues to have significantly better companies, that’s also a lot more priced-in today versus a decade ago.
Michal Stupavsky, CFA’s Post
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Welcome to Y'all Street!! Dallas and North Texas are rapidly becoming a leading financial center in the U.S., second only to New York. Key projects like the $500 million Goldman Sachs tower (picture), new Wells Fargo and Charles Schwab offices, and the expansion of Deloitte's campus highlight this growth. Over the past two decades, Texas has seen a 111% increase in investment-banking and securities employment, with Dallas now ranking second in finance-related employment among U.S. metro areas. Several factors contribute to this rise, including lower housing costs, ample space for development, and a favorable business climate with low taxes and regulations. The region's central location and major airport make it easily accessible, attracting both companies and talent from across the country. Financial executives who have moved to Dallas appreciate the welcoming culture and the work-life balance it offers, which contrasts with the intense environments of traditional financial centers. As more financial institutions establish and expand their presence in North Texas, the area is transforming into a key player in the national financial landscape. Dallas' strategic efforts to attract these businesses are paying off, positioning the region as a dynamic and growing financial hub. Read more details in The Wall Street Journal https://lnkd.in/gvTDkECj Argentina-Texas Chamber of Commerce Dallas Regional Chamber Brazil-Texas Chamber of Commerce AEM USA DFW Chapter - Asociación de Empresarios Mexicanos The Greater Dallas Hispanic Chamber of Commerce The Colombia Texas Chamber of Commerce
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Why Are the Private Markets Poised to Explode Over the Next Decade? Private markets are set for significant growth over the next decade, with Family Offices leading this expansion. Key drivers of this growth are highlighted in reports from major financial institutions. 1. Increasing Allocation from Family Offices Campden Wealth and Goldman Sachs note that Family Offices are increasing allocations to private markets, seeking higher returns and exclusive opportunities. Many are also investing directly in companies for greater control. 2. Search for Yield in a Low-Interest Environment Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan highlight that Family Offices are turning to private debt, real estate, and infrastructure for higher yields. This trend is expected to continue. 3. Technological Innovation and Disruption Wharton and McKinsey identify technological innovation as a key driver, particularly in sectors like fintech, biotech, and AI. Family Offices are investing early to capitalize on high-growth opportunities. 4. Regulatory and Market Developments EY and Northern Trust note that regulatory changes benefit Family Offices by providing more private investment opportunities. The growth of secondary markets for private equity also offers liquidity options. 5. Globalization of Private Markets Goldman Sachs and UBS emphasize the globalization of private markets, with Family Offices leading cross-border investments. Emerging markets, especially in Asia, are attracting significant attention. 6. Shift Towards ESG and Impact Investing Wharton and Blackrock observe a growing focus on ESG and impact investing, driven by the NextGen in Family Offices. These younger generations prioritize values-aligned investments. 7. Resilience During Economic Downturns Northern Trust and EY report that private market investments have shown resilience during economic downturns, offering stable returns compared to the volatility of public markets. Family Offices are uniquely positioned to capitalize on these trends, leveraging their patient capital, long-term perspective, and access to exclusive opportunities. As a result, private markets are set for significant growth over the next decade, driven by the strategic decisions and influence of Family Offices. #familyoffices #familyoffice
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We’re at a delicate point in the U.S. corporate environment, marked by a massive gap between the largest companies and the rest. Equity values and corporate profits are much more heavily concentrated at the top than in years past. The top 100 U.S. corporations now generate over 90% of the country’s total profits, a stark difference from decades past (in 1997, this figure was just 52%). At the same time, 40% of companies in the Russell 2000 have negative earnings and U.S. bankruptcy filings and speculative grade default rates are on the rise. Our team at Orchard Global continually evaluates capital opportunities amid changing market conditions. As we move through 2024, we are tracking this Great Divide, watching out for corporate stress among all but the largest firms.
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As the 2024 #USPresidential #election approaches, there has been significant discussion regarding its potential impact on investor #portfolios. It's an interesting exercise to look at #history, but we don't necessarily make investment decisions based on the outcome. In our analysis, we examined the monthly "average gains" of the S&P 500 index spanning nearly 100 years. We specifically looked at the monthly returns during Presidential election years and compared them to the overall average. (1928-2020) For June, we observed a 0.75% return for the index, whereas in election years, the return was nearly double at 1.44%. Historically, July has been the most favorable month for the index, with an average gain of 1.68% based on seasonality. In election years, July saw only a slight improvement of 0.48% compared to the overall average. The real #surprise comes in August, which typically records an average gain of 0.65%, however in election years, this figure jumps significantly to 3.09%, representing a gain of 2.44% compared to the long-term average. Although these numbers alone may not serve as a sole reason to make investment decisions, statistically speaking, it is evident that an upcoming election is not a compelling reason to #sell. Special thanks to our summer #intern Kevin Kanhai for his input! Welcome to the team.
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According to a recent study, large family offices are allocating nearly half of their investments to private markets and alternatives, shifting away from the stock market in pursuit of greater returns and reduced volatility. #Accounting #Technology #Advisory
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Future of Finance Office Hours this Friday at 12pm EST I’m looking forward to this week’s office hours! Feel free to DM questions if you can’t attend. A little about me and Re-Envision Wealth. I’m a native Washingtonian (hashtag #DCorNothing!) but call North Carolina home as I’ve been here in the Triangle for 15 years now since beginning Bschool - and spending two of the best years of my life - at Kenan-Flagler Business School. I’m the managing partner of Re-Envision Wealth, a Black-owned independent RIA with over 70 clients and $125m in assets under management. I’m blessed and fortunate to be surrounded by 4 other brilliant team members. We provide comprehensive wealth advisory to some of the most impressive and genuinely good human beings you’ll ever meet. A few topics I am comfortable and (arguably) qualified discussing. Credentials: CFA vs MBA vs CFP? Which is harder? Which makes the most sense to pursue given career/income goals? How much study time? Future of the industry: Niche or general focus? Organic and/or inorganic growth? Role of tech stack/ AI etc? What’s too small and too big for firm size? Why are Black RIAs missing out on valuation arbitrage? Growing an independent practice with majority BIPOC clients to $125m in AUM: what’s value proposition for HENRY clients? What are economics when building ensemble practice with less of an AUM focus? How are service models different for emerging affluent/UHNW/ institutional clients? Business Model: Family office vs specialize/outsource? Pros/cons of each? At what revenue/profit level does each make sense? What resources do you need to scale and who are target clients? Partnering up vs Going Solo: what are major considerations when partnering with another advisor? Why do partnerships fail? When does remaining solo and having a lifestyle practice make sense? Portfolio construction: how do we apply racial equity and gender lens across asset classes? How do we incorporate private investments into client portfolios in a customized but scalable way? What tools do we use to measure impact? Closing racial wealth gap: what are ideal to practical solutions? What role does/can the Black financial planner / investment manager play? Managing family, career, community: how does allocation to each vary given stage of life? How important is life partner decision on maintaining harmony among the three? Being a caddy dad: why is caddying different from coaching other youth sports? What have you learned about yourself and your daughters through caddying 20+ tournaments? Top 5s: MCs - lyricists or overall? Albums? Movies? Series? Players - NFL, NBA, WNBA, PGA, LPGA? Books - finance or other? Cities? Link in comments
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Promising Outlook for Family Office Investors 👇 Family office investors are optimistic about maintaining a diversified portfolio for long-term returns despite recent significant rises in equity markets driven by major U.S. tech stocks. They continue to focus on long-term growth trends within a balanced investment approach. 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀: 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: Historical data suggests that staying invested yields better long-term returns despite potential market corrections. For example, missing the best trading days significantly reduces annualized returns. 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗹: The U.S. remains attractive for investment due to its robust economy and high labour productivity. The tech sector shows strong growth potential, particularly in areas like generative AI. 𝗢𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆: Family offices should view market downturns as opportunities to enhance equity exposure, especially with uncertainties like interest rate changes and elections on the horizon. 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗢𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘀: Japanese equities and U.S. Treasuries are highlighted as promising areas. Alternative assets, especially private equity and credit, continue to play a vital role in achieving higher returns. 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: A "soft landing" for the economy is anticipated, with a positive outlook on IPO activity and confidence in private equity markets, supporting long-term investment strategies for multi-generational wealth preservation. 👉 Family offices look to leverage market fluctuations and diversify across asset classes. Source - WealthManagement.com #familyoffices #privatewealth #alternativeinvestments #hedgefunds *** If you enjoyed reading this or learned something, ♻️ share this with others and 🔔 follow me Taras Rybak for more.
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Citi- Equity Demand On The Rise In Family Offices #castlefamilyoffice #citi #apac #mena Citi Wealth has just released its family office investment report for the first quarter of 2024, providing a snapshot of how Citi Private Bank’s single family office clients are positioned and providing insight into regional flows, across Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Latin America and North America. A new report by Citi Wealth, part of Citigroup, shows that global investors’ risk appetite increased in the first quarter of 2024. Sentiment was bolstered by growing evidence of US economic resilience and recovery in global demand. While hopes of imminent, numerous US interest rate cuts were dashed, expectations of reductions later this year endure. Elsewhere, such as in Europe, monetary policy may be eased sooner, the report reveals. Against this backdrop, family offices have reduced cash holdings. Equities continued to advance in much of the world. Developed markets have seen the best of the action. The US, Europe, and Japan all enjoyed double-digit upside during the period. Emerging markets have had more modest gains, with Latin America the only region to retreat, the report shows. The focus was on developed large cap shares, despite the high valuations of many US technology stocks such as the “Magnificent Seven” ie Amazon, Apple, Google parent Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. Developed small and mid-cap equities also saw raised allocations in all parts of the world, according to the report. The analysis is based on investment assets held by single family office clients at Citi Private Bank. Citi Private Bank’s global family office group considers a single family office to have $250 million net worth. Data is taken from more than 1,200 single family office clients globally and filtered for size and allocation characteristics. In particular, the report shows that there was the biggest equal-weighted increase in equities of any region in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, with developed large caps accounting for about 61 per cent of equities overall trading volume. Emerging markets also experienced a net dollar inflow thanks to concentrated flows into Indian banks, whilst allocations to developed small and mid-caps increased amid historically low valuations. https://lnkd.in/efSbyeUX
Equity Demand On The Rise In Family Offices – Citi
wealthbriefing.com
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In today's Analyst Insights in your Wealthyhood app... Read about the US economy flexes its muscles: Corporate earnings growth surges 💪 The latest quarterly updates reveal that the US economy is still showing its strength, with corporate earnings growth set to surpass 6% annually for the first quarter of this year. Companies are feeling less panicked about inflation, focusing on stock buybacks and dividend payments, and over $180 billion in stock buybacks have been announced this season alone. Dividend growth is also on the rise, pegged at 8% this year. Key Highlights: Earnings Growth: Profits are up, with three consecutive quarters of growth, and a 6% annual increase expected this quarter. Companies are shifting focus from inflation worries to growth and innovation, with a significant uptick in mentions of AI and machine learning. Consumer Trends: Consumers are becoming more selective in their spending, favoring affordability. However, sectors like cruise lines, airlines, and entertainment are still experiencing strong demand. Shareholder Returns: Companies are rewarding shareholders through increased buybacks and dividends. Stock buybacks have remained above the ten-year average for 13 consecutive quarters. Capex Surge: Big tech companies are driving a surge in capital expenditures, particularly in AI infrastructure. S&P 500 capex is up 7% year-over-year. Sector Variability: While most sectors saw profit gains, the growth varied. Utilities experienced over 35% growth, while consumer staples had a modest 3.5% increase. Takeaway: The tech rally continues, but diversification is key. With a major capex splurge on AI infrastructure ahead, sectors like energy, commodities, and utilities could see significant benefits. It's a great time to reassess and diversify your portfolio to capture the broader market growth. Read the full analysis in your Wealthyhood app ! - Capital at risk. Our analyst insights are published every day on the Wealthyhood app and are for educational purposes only. They’re produced by Finimize and represent their own opinions and views only. Wealthyhood does not render any investment advice and has no control over the content. Capital at risk. #investingtips #finance #money #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #fintech #entrepreneur #SustainableFinance #FinancialFreedom #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #investmentstrategy #investments #passiveincome #wealthmanager #Economy #GrowthOpportunity #GlobalMarket #Investing #StockMarket #EconomicInsights #FinanceProfessionals #Finance #InvestmentTrends #StockMarket #WealthManagement #ETFs #fantasyfootball#AI #DataCenters #UtilityStocks #Investing #DominionEnergy #ElectricityDemand #Finance #USEconomy #InvestorInsights #TechRally #CapexSpending #MarketTrends #JPMorganPrivateBank
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Deloitte | Rothschild & Co | Arcano Partners Investment Banking | Deutsche Bank | Howden | Neovantas | Dual Degree BBA & Data Analytics in IE University | Member of the Fellowship Society (12% Best Students)
2moVery interesting! Thanks for sharing