Michal Stupavsky, CFA’s Post

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Global Macro | Investment Strategist at Conseq Investment Management | Head of Research at Prague Finance Institute

Mustread - Bridgewater Associates - US Exceptionalism: Drivers of Equity Outperformance and What’s Needed for a Repeat Key highlights:   US equity outperformance has been driven by a combination of (a) faster revenue growth, (b) bigger margin expansion, and (c) rising P/E multiples—in roughly equal proportion.   Today, strong US EPS growth outperformance is already reflected in the prices, at a time when many of the largest drivers of backward-looking US equity outperformance cannot be counted on to repeat going forward (from globalization to tax cuts to the massive fiscal support for profits). A lot now boils down to the ability of the US tech sector to deliver and AI to unleash a broad productivity impact across sectors. The bar for continued outperformance is high—but the potential is also there.   US corporate profitability has been supported by both (a) better capital deployment choices by a more competent and better-aligned management, and (b) operating in a more pro-corporate environment, including support from fiscal.   The fact that US companies delivered superior earnings and price performance over the past decade (which was most pronounced in tech) got priced in via these higher long-term cash flow expectations. This dynamic is what sets a higher hurdle for outperformance looking ahead.   When considering the outlook for the S&P 500 from here, it is important to consider that many of the biggest drivers of the backward-looking returns discussed above (e.g., rising margins, rising P/E ratios, massive fiscal support to profits) are also what sets a high bar for outperformance looking ahead. And while the US continues to have significantly better companies, that’s also a lot more priced-in today versus a decade ago.

Alvaro Garris Calzada

Deloitte | Rothschild & Co | Arcano Partners Investment Banking | Deutsche Bank | Howden | Neovantas | Dual Degree BBA & Data Analytics in IE University | Member of the Fellowship Society (12% Best Students)

2mo

Very interesting! Thanks for sharing

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