Chief Executive Officer at Property Risk Inspection Ltd & UK Property Risk Ltd (We built LOCUS)
"Around 43% of properties are likely to be affected by subsidence in London by 2030." This is of course getting lots of press and the matter is clearly urgent as in just 5 more summers 43% of all Greater London's properties will be "affected" by subsidence. As Bowie said - we've 5 years that's all we've got... I am calling today for a taskforce for insurers to start buying up vacant offices and vape shops to act as community claim liaison centres for insurers and for a major scheme of rehousing and resettlement away from London to maybe Wales or Guildford. Wait...wait, just reading the document - source, yes lets read the references, ah, 72, ref 72, so that's: https://lnkd.in/edQCvqgy I am sure the author and team have a real mission to warn in a modern way about why London isn't prepared for climate change. But on this issue this is a complete mis-reading not only of the science but just of the web story. Here is what BGS says: "Experts at the BGS, the UK’s geoscientific advisor which helps to advance our knowledge about changes in the environment, warns that the number of properties in Great Britain facing subsidence issues and damage to property from shrink-swell is on the rise, with figures of just 3 per cent in 1990 likely to reach 10 per cent by 2070. Projections suggest that the number of properties in London likely to be affected by climate will rise from 20 per cent in 1990, to 43 per cent by 2030, and almost 3 times 1990 values (57 per cent) by 2070." Of course affected by climate might mean flooding, heat impacts, higher retrofit costs and adaptations and subsidence, including sinkholes, landslides etc etc etc This is needed work and reporting and most of it good sense and sensible recommendations - but dragging the wrong sentence from a speculative piece of work online is the road to bad policy. #subsidence #claims #property #London #lossadjusters #insurers Did you know by the way the UK is the first Islamist state with nuclear weapons - didn't know that did you? https://lnkd.in/efcYJkTm
David Kelly
4mo
This assessment is disappointing as it looks like "a plan for a plan" focusing on expanding bureaucracy rather than solving tangible problems. The emphasis on more studies, strategies, and administrative roles rather than concrete actions like improving drainage systems could be much better, especially given the pressing nature of flood risks in London. The noticeable gap between high-level policy planning and the practical, on-the-ground solutions that residents need and want to see implemented. It's a reminder that effective climate adaptation requires strategic planning and immediate, tangible action on basic infrastructure.
Chief Executive Officer at Property Risk Inspection Ltd & UK Property Risk Ltd (We built LOCUS)
4moLets try and unpick the London to be devastated by subsidence damage: 1. We have had huge surges in summer heat and low rainfall in 1990 (the base year for BGS wasn't a base year for damage at all it was a huge hot surge year) in 1991, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2006, 2018, 2022 - all of these years were at the forecasted upper range for annual summers 2070. 2. With 9 summers modelling 2070 since 1990 none of them got to 4.3% damage never mind 43%. 3. In that time a typical family home in the worst subsidence affected postcodes have increased from £84'000 to £508'000 suggesting property and people want to live in London with a few cracks So if there is lots of clay in London and loads of big forest trees and all the property is old and substandard! Where are all the claims ? It seems that our best strategy is build poor housing with rubbish foundations, plant huge trees nearby, break all the drains and house prices increase faster than anywhere else...