Michael Creadon’s Post

🚨 A staggering 13% drop in the Japanese Yen has sent shockwaves through global markets, sparking an emergency meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve. 🚨 The Korean and Taiwanese markets saw near 10% tumbles, leading experts to predict a 50 basis points rate cut in the aftermath. This dramatic downturn has not only rattled traditional financial setups but also put cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin back in the spotlight. In just the last five days, Bitcoin's value plummeted 18% while S&P futures dipped 4%, underscoring the urgent need for the Federal Reserve's intervention. CNBC's Ran Neuner described this moment as critical, warning that without swift Federal action, we could face a crisis surpassing that of 2008—striking an especially ominous chord during an election year. The Japanese cash and carry trade's abrupt reversal seems to be the root cause of this turmoil, elevating the chance of a September rate cut to 100%. Experts argue that such a move could stabilize markets, as seen in past crises, albeit with significant risks. A potential rate reduction signals economic fragility, likely steering more investors towards Bitcoin as a hedge, though caution remains paramount. Lastly, the likelihood of a U.S. recession has risen, as noted by Goldman Sachs, from 15% to 25%. Financial stability remains tenuous, with unemployment fears looming large. Historically, rate cuts have funneled investments into risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies, suggesting a shift in market dynamics amidst growing economic uncertainty. Stay informed, stay prepared, and delve deeper into this unfolding narrative at Sovereign Magazine. Your insight may just pave the way for a fairer society and true progress. 💼📉💡

🔴🐂PERUVIAN_BULL TURNS BEARISH (follow on X) 🐻 🐂FOLLOW P_BULL-- his missives are instructive and validate what I know and post. Only one thing missed: the key LatAm angle starting with 🇦🇷 His latest is quoted below: 🔴WHY JAPAN WILL BE THE TRIGGER --------------------------------------- "JPY ripping through barriers like paper, passing each level where the BoJ intervened before. Slow motion meltdown...accelerates, and authorities are powerless to stop the decline... dire consequences IF they put their finger on the button to defend JPY. PM Kishida met with POTUS smiling on the surface, but pain underneath. With debt/ GDP at an eye-watering 263%, can't afford to normalize rates with the Fed. Must maintain low rates, a massive carry trade, bolstering USD, pulling JPY down (inexorably). News of hot inflation in the US this morning made things worse, more justification (higher for longer). " 🔴USA INDICATORS NEGATE RATE CUTS ------------------------------------------- "Massive 50% downside miss on GDP paired with hot PCE means "stagflation-for-longer" [note: my term] Debt service expense at all time highs...means more debt growth as we accelerate across the Monetary Event Horizon." [note: event might be a simultaneous JPY-EUR collapse per plan] 🔴CRYPTO ATTACKS: DTCC FIRST TARGET -------------------------------------------- "arresting developers of Samourai Wallet. Next Phoenix Wallet pulls their app from Appstore, now DTCC is assigning 100% haircut to all crypto assets. They're coming for the non-KYC wallets first. Then the nodes and self-custody." 🔴THE VITAL ROLE WE PLAY ----------------------------- "they depend on US to keep charade going. We man barricades of the dying fiat system. Without us working for their $$$, they have nothing to control us with. 🔴FINALLY, FROM ZEROHEDGE -------------------------------- "Look, the people you are after are the people you depend on. We cook your meals, we haul your trash, we connect your calls, we drive your ambulances. We guard you while you sleep. Do not... F with us." -Tyler Durden #X #PeruvianBull #JPY #FX #carrytrade #DTCC #Cede #zerohedge #monetary #greattaking #milei #argentina #IMF

Global markets are on tenterhooks ahead of a US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and key US inflation figures.

How's everybody feeling? You know it's a tough trading market when it's Monday evening and everyone is already sleep deprived and emotionally drained. I'm watching from the cheap seats these days so it's a lot easier. I actually had this incredible feeling of foreboding when I woke up earlier today and looked at my phone. I was like: how bad is this going to be? Pretty bad, as it turns out. But also for the moment seemingly manageable, too. This just in: our banks are fine. This wasn't the case during Lehman. Yeah, stocks went down a lot here in recent days. They're also up a ton in recent years. Yes; there is real panic, nervousness and caution in global markets. And also, yes, the sun will rise tomorrow. People will go back to work. And the national economy will keep chugging along one way or another. Markets tell me what to think. The ten-year Treasury wanted several times in the past 24 hours to go parabolic and don't get me wrong, it gave a valiant effort. It also finished lower on the day. This is an important tell; in fact, maybe the economic world that looked so fragile in recent hours isn't about to fall totally apart, after all. Trust me: during Lehman, bonds didn't finish in negative territory very often. Almost never for like 6-8 weeks. Less emotion; more observation of market clues. That's the right approach. Something is broken in crypto but I'm not sure what. Details will emerge eventually; they always do. More broadly - and back to Japan - central banks are poised to ease in coming months. This almost always favors risk assets. On balance: I think we're gonna be OK. As for Japan, they got some "figurin'" to do. As Steinbeck once so poetically wrote in "Grapes of Wrath". At home, we learned today Google is a monopoly. Hey brother, "Don't be evil".

Day 6 (06/08/2024) of the Upcoming Global Financial Crisis: Yesterday, Stocks lost more than 1TN dollars of value today, fueled by the Tokyo exchange crash after everyone learned about Yen Carry Trade (Borrowing cheaper money in Japan and investing it elsewhere) as BOJ is raising interest rates. At the same time, the FED will be forced to lower them (Closing the carried interest spread). As I am discussing with Pedro Concha, we remember his Goldman Sachs days. Digital Asset investors, caught up in the confusion of ETFs and miscellanea, have forgotten that the promoters of those ETFs who sell them are also participating in the re-purchase of their losses at cheaper rates to sustain that system. Someone told me that he thought Bitcoin was a refugee investment. However, he missed the class where someone told you that people cover margin calls and profit selling DAs, Gold, and the most profitable positions.  Then I remember that I am ticking the clock until Iran responds to Israel while I watch in dismay the prices of General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin and other defence industries close to new highs on how the industrial complex military damaged a century that was supposed to be quite peaceful. On the retail and consumer side, the stock crash creates additional pressure on citizens already damaged by inflation rates. Will this increase delinquency rates and mortgage defaults, along with citizens' ability to pay? Plenty of banks are nervous about capturing new business, and that means they are including an adverse scenario in their calculations. Today, after TOPIX went up, we expect a rebound that should clear part of the oversold territory of many tickers and indicators. Stay safe out there, and make sure that the next call you get is from your wife. Not Margin Call

Brace for impact. Tomorrow opening of the market will reveal a ton. Few strange events taking place causing concern amongst investors. 1. Rumors of an underground bunker in Jerusalem where senior leaders can remain for an extended period during a war has been prepared by the Shin Bet security service and is fully operational, the Walla news site reported on Sunday, amid fear of attacks on Israel from Hezbollah and Iran. The bunker, reportedly built almost 20 years ago, can sustain hits from a range of existing weaponry, has command and control capabilities, and is connected to the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv, the report said. 2. Japan stock market, the Nikkei 225 is set to post its largest 2 day drop in history. Larger than black Monday crash of 1987. 3. Bitcoin is down 22% the last week. (10% just today) Ethereum is down 31% for the week. (21% for the day) 4. Some trends showing the increase purchase of military stocks under way. This isn’t fully verified but you can see some patterns. 5. Talks about Fed reserve considering lowering rates half a point next month to stabilize the massive potential stock market loss in August. 6. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumps $75.5 billion worth of stock and halves Apple stake. They’re now sitting on a record cash pile of $276.9 billion. What does all of this mean? 1. Nothing 2. Shits about to hit the fan 3. A possible WWIII is eminent and America may be forced to get involved with Iran/Israel if 🇮🇷 attacks 4. The overdue Recession is finally here 5. Global recession after all the printing of 💰 is here Either way, I follow a basic rule. I lean 51% on future looking bright and 49% on “Only the paranoid survive”. God is good!

Brace for impact. Tomorrow opening of the market will reveal a ton. Few strange events taking place causing concern amongst investors. 1. Rumors of an underground bunker in Jerusalem where senior leaders can remain for an extended period during a war has been prepared by the Shin Bet security service and is fully operational, the Walla news site reported on Sunday, amid fear of attacks on Israel from Hezbollah and Iran. The bunker, reportedly built almost 20 years ago, can sustain hits from a range of existing weaponry, has command and control capabilities, and is connected to the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv, the report said. 2. Japan stock market, the Nikkei 225 is set to post its largest 2 day drop in history. Larger than black Monday crash of 1987. 3. Bitcoin is down 22% the last week. (10% just today) Ethereum is down 31% for the week. (21% for the day) 4. Some trends showing the increase purchase of military stocks under way. This isn’t fully verified but you can see some patterns. 5. Talks about Fed reserve considering lowering rates half a point next month to stabilize the massive potential stock market loss in August. 6. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumps $75.5 billion worth of stock and halves Apple stake. They’re now sitting on a record cash pile of $276.9 billion. What does all of this mean? 1. Nothing 2. Shits about to hit the fan 3. A possible WWIII is eminent and America may be forced to get involved with Iran/Israel if 🇮🇷 attacks 4. The overdue Recession is finally here 5. Global recession after all the printing of 💰 is here Either way, I follow a basic rule. I lean 51% on future looking bright and 49% on “Only the paranoid survive”. God is good!

July 5th report: 1. Markets are extending the pullback they began the previous week, with an even worse opening. The fall is global (Europe; Asia) and affects stocks, cryptos and bonds. Japan fell almost 15%, its worst in more than 10 years. Financial risk measures (CBOE; VIX; F&G) are rising significantly. 2. The declines are so aggressive that it opens up the possibility of a trading halt today. The main reasons are renewed fears of recession in the U.S. and Friday's disappointing nonfarm payrolls data. Recession odds according to Bloomberg rose from 15% to 50%. 3. Expectations that the BoJ will tighten its monetary stance are draining carry trade possibilities, reshaping global markets. Later in the week, statements from Fed members are expected after ending their period of silence. 4. BTC and ETH fell 20% and 17%, respectively, in line with the general market decline. Despite this, Aave generated $6M in revenue during today's crypto market settlement. The end of the carry trade could also affect cryptocurrency prices, with BTC below $50K. 5. Japan recorded a 15% drop, its worst in more than 10 years, which impacted global markets. This drop is due to renewed fears of recession and possible changes in the BoJ's monetary policy. 6. Financial risk measures, such as the CBOE, VIX and F&G, are rising significantly due to aggressive market declines. Investors will keep an eye on statements from Fed members and inflation data in China this week.

Few strange events taking place causing concern amongst investors. 1. Rumors of an underground bunker in Jerusalem where senior leaders can remain for an extended period during a war has been prepared by the Shin Bet security service and is fully operational, the Walla news site reported on Sunday, amid fear of attacks on Israel from Hezbollah and Iran. The bunker, reportedly built almost 20 years ago, can sustain hits from a range of existing weaponry, has command and control capabilities, and is connected to the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv, the report said. 2. Japan stock market, the Nikkei 225 is set to post its largest 2 day drop in history. Larger than black Monday crash of 1987. 3. Bitcoin is down 22% the last week. (10% just today) Ethereum is down 31% for the week. (21% for the day) 4. Some trends showing the increase purchase of military stocks under way. This isn’t fully verified but you can see some patterns. 5. Talks about Fed reserve considering lowering rates half a point next month to stabilize the massive potential stock market loss in August. 6. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumps $75.5 billion worth of stock and halves Apple stake. They’re now sitting on a record cash pile of $276.9 billion. What does all of this mean? 1. Nothing 2. Shits about to hit the fan 3. A possible WWIII is eminent and America may be forced to get involved with Iran/Israel if 🇮🇷 attacks 4. The overdue Recession is finally here 5. Global recession after all the printing of 💰 is here Either way, I follow a basic rule. I lean 51% on future looking bright and 49% on “Only the paranoid survive”. God is good!