Matt Pukas’ Post

Canada's unemployment rate has risen to 6.4%, the highest since January 2021, intensifying calls for the Bank of Canada to consider a rate cut in July. The increase in umemployment signals potential economic slowing, with lower wage growth and fewer job vacancies adding to the pressure on policymakers to adjust interest rates to support economic stability. Bond yields have rallied throughout the morning on account of today’s employment numbers. As of 8:15am PST, the 5-yr CMB is down approximately 5bps trading at ~3.75% and the 10-yr CMB is down 9bps trading at ~4.01%.

📉 𝗝𝗼𝗯 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀: Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.4% in June, with the economy losing 1,400 jobs, contrary to the expected gain of 25,000. 🛑 𝗙𝘂𝗹𝗹-𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘃𝘀. 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁-𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲: The loss comprised 3,400 full-time positions, offset by a small gain of 1,900 part-time jobs. 🚚 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀: Significant job losses in transportation, warehousing, and public administration, contrasted with gains in accommodation and food services. 🍔 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝗻: Trend of replacing high-paying jobs with low-wage, temporary positions continues to be a concern. 📊 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗺𝗺𝗶𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗴𝗴𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴: Increased unemployment rates among youth and new immigrants highlight vulnerable groups in the labor market. 🏦 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗗𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗺𝗺𝗮: Despite poor job market performance, the Bank of Canada may delay the next rate cut, with potential dates being July 24 or September 4. 💸 𝗪𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀: Average hourly wages rose to $34.91, growing by 5.4% annually, influencing the central bank's cautious approach to rate cuts. 🗓️ 𝗨𝗽𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮: June's inflation results, due July 16, will be pivotal in deciding the timing of the next rate cut. 🏠 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗲𝗿𝘀: High interest rates and a weak job market affect clients' ability to purchase homes or renew mortgages at favorable rates. Despite a challenging job market, gradual improvements are expected, but immediate economic relief may be delayed. 🇨🇦💼

With the unemployment rate on the rise and the labour market weakening, there's growing pressure for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates soon. A 7 per cent unemployment rate looms if no action is taken. Read more here.

With the unemployment rate on the rise and the labour market weakening, there's growing pressure for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates soon. A 7 per cent unemployment rate looms if no action is taken. Read more here.

With the unemployment rate on the rise and the labour market weakening, there's growing pressure for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates soon. A 7 per cent unemployment rate looms if no action is taken. Read more here.

Canada’s unemployment rate could surpass seven per cent this year if the Bank of Canada delays interest rate cuts, according to a National Bank economist. Urgent action may be needed to prevent this outcome. Stay informed: [Link to the article] #Canada #Unemployment #Economy

Canada’s labour market stalled in March as it unexpectedly lost a net of 2,200 jobs and the unemployment rate increased to 6.1 per cent, raising bets that the Bank of Canada will come off the sidelines and cut rates in June. Economists had expected a net gain of 25,000 jobs in March. The increase in unemployment, up 0.3 percentage points from February, was the biggest monthly jump since Aug. 2022. The latest data has bolstered expectations that the Bank of Canada will soon start cutting rates. More on the latest labour force survey, and what it could mean for the central bank: https://lnkd.in/gNuwPFRc

Canada’s Unemployment Rate Surges to 6.6%: How Does This Impact You? Canada’s unemployment rate jumped to 6.6% in August, the highest since 2017 outside of COVID-19. With 40,000 fewer jobs, this marks the third consecutive rise in unemployment, with significant losses in construction, education, and professional services. 📊 Key Insights: -Three straight months of job losses show a slowing labor market. -40,000 jobs lost, with finance and insurance growth also slowing. -Rate Pause Likely: Economists predict the Bank of Canada may pause further rate hikes, with potential cuts ahead. As unemployment rises and market volatility increases, now is the time to review your financial plan. Let’s connect to make sure your investments, savings, and borrowing strategies are aligned with the current economic environment. #CanadaEconomy #Unemployment #FinancialPlanning #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook

US and Canada are definitely on two separate paths. Canadian unemployment rose up to 6.1% in March as US unemployment rate drops to 3.8%. Will Canada have to follow a different path than the US when it comes to rate cuts? We will have to wait and see. Next Bank of Canada announcement is next week, on April 10th. No rate cuts expected, however any foresight on what may come next announcement may have an impact on fixed rates. https://lnkd.in/g5nQc46h

Canada's unemployment rate surged to a 29-month high of 6.4% in June, signaling potential economic trouble as the labor market struggles to accommodate a rapidly growing population. The latest jobs report revealed that youth unemployment has soared to nearly a decade high, excluding pandemic years. This data has intensified market speculation about a potential rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC), with the probability rising to 56% from 40% the previous day. Economists warn that the rising unemployment rate may indicate Canada is on the brink of a recession and Statistics Canada reported a net loss of 1,400 jobs in June, contrary to analysts' expectations of 22,500 job gains, underscoring the weakness in economic conditions. The Canadian dollar weakened by 0.25% to 1.3647 against the U.S. dollar following the jobs report. Additionally, yields on the Canadian government's two-year bonds dropped by 9.1 basis points to 3.961%. Despite the increase in unemployment, wage growth continues to challenge the BoC's efforts to control inflation, with the average hourly wage growth of permanent employees accelerating to an annual rate of 5.6% in June from 5.2% in May. This pay growth rate, closely monitored by the BoC for its impact on inflation, was the fastest since December's 5.7%. The BoC lowered its key policy rate in June for the first time in over four years and indicated that further cuts are likely if inflation continues to cool. The bank's next rate announcement on July 24 will come after the release of new inflation data, which is expected to play a crucial role in determining the likelihood of a rate cut. June's job losses were primarily in full-time positions, with gains in part-time work. The goods sector saw a net increase of 12,600 jobs, mainly in agriculture, while the services sector lost 14,100 jobs, led by declines in transportation, warehousing, and information, culture, and recreation. #CanadaEconomy #UnemploymentRate #BankOfCanada #InterestRates #LaborMarket #EconomicOutlook #WageGrowth #Inflation #JobMarket #CanadianDollar #EconomicRecession #PolicyRate #FinancialMarkets https://lnkd.in/dzhRDYAk