Martin Henze’s Post

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany has been wrestling with the question how much (more) to spend on its own defense and that of Europe. Some observers even see the country in the thralls of a new armament euphoria. Critics of bigger military budgets have pointed out that the European #NATO states are already spending three times as much on defense as Russia while the latter is "bleeding out" on the battlefields of Ukraine. But these are flawed starting points for assessing whether Germany should invest more in military capabilities, argues GPPi's Lea Marlene Korb in a new commentary. Moscow is gearing up for a long confrontation with the West – and NATO may be spending more in absolute terms, but more money doesn't equal readiness. As things stand today, Lea explains, Europe would hardly be able to defend itself against Russia without support from the United States. ➡ Read why that must change (in German): https://lnkd.in/dVhRRA6H

What truly defines military readiness? My opinion piece delves into why sheer numbers don't capture the complexities of defense capabilities. Despite NATO's higher defense spending compared to Russia, the actual readiness and strategic effectiveness of European forces reveal critical gaps. From technological dependencies to logistical inefficiencies, I argue that Europe must bolster its independent defense capabilities to counter real threats.

Since October 2023, Russian agents planned to sabotage German military, industry and transport infrastructure. Sabotage = Plant bombs 💣 This goes far beyond "the usual" Russian Cyberattacks and Information Warfare. The additional Espionage activities against German military, industry and US military in Germany are almost secondary. Fortunately, the two main suspects have been arrested. How to react to this? I can very much recall the Russian comments and reactions to Ukraine-related sabotage in Russia - and those countries are at war. So, as a German, I can't help but wonder: Are we now directly at war with Russia, too? So far, the German government hasn't reacted strongly. I believe that it has no alternative to doing something quite drastic. Otherwise Russia will try again to destroy German facilities. Personally, I feel like Taurus deliveries and a significant increase in military aid for Ukraine are an appropriate response. I wouldn't go so far as to ask German intelligence or military to conduct an operation against Russia, as some other people propose. Maybe the disbursement of confiscated Russian finances to Ukraine would also be a strong deterrent for future Russian sabotage attempts? What reaction do you think is appropriate ❓ The silver lining: It is kind of an honor that Russia sees German support for Ukraine as so important that it risks such extreme steps.

“It is not too late for #Ukraine to win. We have to send more arms and ammunition to 🇺🇦 including critical air defence and long-range weapons.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to Welt (in German). Yesterday, President Zelenskyy thanked Germany for delivering the fourth IRIS-T air defence system, and the decision to deliver a third Patriot system. It’s time for 🇩🇪 to also deliver the TAURUS long-range missile system, and for other #NATO allies to provide more of the vital air defence systems Ukraine needs right now. #StandWithUkraine https://lnkd.in/ecYmd2A3

"The US decision to provide Ukraine with anti-personnel mines will help significantly strengthen defensive positions in the Kursk region," - executive director of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center Dmytro Zhmailo for DER STANDARD. “Our best units are currently in the Kursk region, including paratroopers and Western equipment, including Leopard and Abrams tanks. A third of the enemy forces have been destroyed in the minefields. That is why the US decision to provide Ukraine with anti-personnel mines is so important, because it will help us strengthen our defensive positions. This also applies to permission to use long-range strikes on Russian territory,” the expert noted. According to him, in order to test Ukrainian defense, Russian forces will first attack in small raid groups. And mine defense is a good countermeasure to their intentions. Read https://lnkd.in/ev6bmHSW

My latest piece about NATO's current challenges (in German).

50% increase: Russia increases the number of its soldiers from 1 million (2022) to 1.5 million (2024). Plus about 880,000 support personnel. At the same time, the economy has been switched to a war-time economy and Russia is set to produce 2.5x as many artillery shells as USA and Europe combined. Other military equipment (tanks, APCs...) supposedly is getting replaced at the same speed as Ukraine destroys it. Last not least, supply of materiel by Russia's allies like Iran and North Korea is getting ramped up. Plausible reports of militaristic indoctrination of children/youth in Russia exist. This includes hundreds of thousands of deported Ukrainian children. It will provide Russia with significant additional troops in the medium to long term. The German minister of defense estimates that in 5 years (2029) Russia could be a threat to NATO. Other experts are less "optimistic" and - if Ukraine loses short-term - estimate 3 years only. Meanwhile, Germany is cutting military aid to Ukraine by 50% (from 2024 to 2025) and is projected to need dozens of years to return to the same level of military-readiness as it had in 2004. One doesn't need to be a chess-grandmaster or math genius to grasp the danger. Time for Western governments to do more than the minimum. Urgently. #Zeitenwende #NATO #Russia

The nations in the Area of Operation of Multinational Corps Northeast, including Germany, share a significant land border with Russia and Belarus. This geostrategic reality exposes us all to the potential threat of Russian aggression. The sense of urgency in these nations is palpable. In Germany, this sense of urgency, while not as acute, has been growing since the unlawful Russian invasion of Ukraine. This shift in our strategic environment, which in Germany is referred to as 'Zeitenwende', did not begin in 2022 but at least in 2014 with the also unlawful occupation of Crimea. Some argue it started even earlier. Together with their NATO comrades in our AOO, Bundeswehr soldiers are part of the first line of defence. For me, it is clear: Our freedom is under attack. At Multinational Corps Northeast, it is our task to ensure that our freedom will not be compromised. We will defend every inch of the territory of NATO Allies. Our readiness is a crucial precondition for success. However, it comes at a cost. Over the past decades, our defence budget, not just in Germany, has seen a decline. Now, we must invest a substantial amount of money to address the gaps and shortages we have inadvertently created. Gratefully our government has initiated the turn around. This investment is not a luxury, but a necessity. While there may be competing priorities, I firmly believe that our security is a zero-sum game. Every Euro not invested in defence heightens our vulnerability and diminishes our security. Yet, security is the bedrock of our daily lives in freedom and our ability to confront the challenges of tomorrow. For "The European," I was asked to share my thoughts on how stable our defence in the Northeastern flank really is. My answer is a question: How much vulnerability do we as a society allow as an open flank towards the enemy? As General Officers of the Bundeswehr, we bear a significant responsibility in answering this question. Over the past decades, we have witnessed a shrinking defence budget, with the belief that only 'out-of-area' operations would shape our future and that less would be more flexible. This was a miscalculation, and we are now facing the consequences. We are tasked with the challenging balancing act between international crisis management and deterrence and defence. At the same time, defence is a task for the whole society. Everybody has to lean in. Because ultimately, every threat is as massive as the vulnerability we allow ourselves. Please find hereby the Link to my article (in German). I'm looking forward to your opinion and will listen to your thoughts. https://lnkd.in/egRzP7a3

It is never a pleasure in the common sense of the term to talk about war and armed conflict, but it has been a pleasant experience today to discuss with members of the German Parliament (#DeutscherBundestag) and research colleagues about Private Security and Military Companies (PSMCs) in armed conflicts. In particular the hybridity that some of these groups (like former Wagner) embody is an ongoing and sustained policy challenge for foreign, security and human rights politics in democracies. Yet, these groups are also a matter for research on the mergers of state and non-state organizations and the strategic utility of these organizations for non-democracies.     https://lnkd.in/g65pVUEB