"The incoming administration marks the sixth consecutive presidential term under which the cannabis industry will be forced to operate in limbo. America first began dabbling with legal cannabis more than 20 years ago, when California established a medical-use cannabis market in 1996, says Matt Karnes, founder of cannabis research firm GreenWave Advisors.
Cannabis is still prohibited at the federal level, even though it is fully legal in more than 20 states. The federal ban means cannabis can’t be transported over state lines, creating inefficiencies for growers such as Green Thumb Industries and Trulieve that operate in several states. American cannabis companies aren’t allowed to list on U.S. stock exchanges, or even to open a regular checking account at a major bank.
There is a slim chance that something could get done in the lame-duck session. Cannabis lobbyists say the Safer Banking Act, which would give pot companies access to traditional banking services, might pass in the next few weeks. But it is a long shot. Democrats, who have traditionally been friendlier to the cannabis industry, want to focus on other priorities before the end of the congressional term.
Trump isn’t antipot. He backed the unsuccessful ballot to legalize recreational cannabis in Florida. He nominated pro-cannabis Matt Gaetz for attorney general giving the industry hope, but the former congressman withdrew his name from consideration Thursday.
Some of the states that voted Trump back into power are already enjoying a windfall from legal sales, so they won’t want a crackdown. Nevada and Arizona have collected $1.1 billion and $703 million in cannabis taxes, respectively, since legalizing adult-use sales, according to data from Gretchen Gailey, founder of cannabis advocacy firm Panoptic Strategies.
But there isn’t a real cost to Republicans to simply leave the issue in states’ hands and kick the can down the road on federal reform. Unlike abortion or immigration, pot isn’t a topic that motivates single-issue voters and it is low on the new administration’s list of priorities.
The failed Florida vote also challenges the cannabis industry’s belief that, as more states go legal, legislators will have no choice but to listen to the will of the people and scrap prohibition. Low-hanging fruit in the push to establish new markets may be gone: Several states that held cannabis legalization ballots on Election Day failed to get enough support to lift restrictions.
One potential positive for the industry is a Biden-led plan to reclassify cannabis. Marijuana is labeled a Schedule I substance alongside heroin and LSD. Because it falls into this category, cannabis companies aren’t allowed to offset regular business expenses such as rent or travel, which can leave their effective tax rate north of 70%."
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7moBack in the day. 26 years ago when i started talking to people about the econimic benefits of legalizing i said it could bring a couple billion in taxes a year which i am pretty much on with the state. And i think i told you a few years ago i see the worldwide market eventually being over a trillion dollar industry.