Margaret Franklin, CFA’s Post

U.S. National Debt compounds exponentially. This is what causes most risk assets to go up over time. Most paper gains are inflation gains, currency devaluation gains, but not real gains. Finally, stop looking at the #CPI to measure real returns. #debt #investing #finance #economy #inflation #nationaldebt

Some interesting numbers from the US Treasury show the national debt climbed from $34.393262 trillion on March 1st to $34.561173 trillion on March 20th, a rise of $167.911 billion in just 20 days. US Government spending is up almost 20% in two years.

Relationship of Debt and GDP growth is actually a topic fraught with complexity. 1. debt is a stock and gdp is a flow,so one has to be careful as to how you set up the variables 2. it depends on what "new" debt is used for ie to impact GDP it needs to be spent/manifest as final demand for goods and services. E.g using debt to buy existing assets (homes, pre owned cars and financial assets) will not affect GDP. 3. even if you seggregate the appropriate variables correctly the transmission mechanism is subject to long and variable lags. Debt in one period may only be spent on things in subsequent time periods (quarters). Introducing lags means you have to separate immediate period 1 impact with the long run beta. 4. one can avoid these issues if you look at long (5year cagrs of gdp and debt growth) Doing this one can see that the longer run beta of gdp to debt growth is falling but is still around 0.7 ie a 1% increase in debt results in .7% bump in gdp over 5 years all in annualized nos.

As the U.S. national debt reaches USD 34 trillion, concerns about Treasury bonds rise due to fiscal challenges—including deteriorating budget deficits and slow legislative responses.   Even so, US Treasuries have demonstrated remarkable resilience.   Raffaele Prencipe details what underpins the continued appeal of these bonds. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/eEtZeKjD   #FiscalChallenges #USGovernmentBonds #GlobalFinance   --Marketing communication-- Investing incurs risks. Past performances do not guarantee future results.

Debt, deficits, debasement... inflation, stagflation, war... As JFK famously said, "Our problems are man made; therefore they can be solved by man." Well, yes, but what would that require? If you ask me, quite a lot. In this discussion with David Lin and Matthew Piepenburg we dive deep into all the above problems and how they are all a part of the global monetary and financial regime change which has already begun. https://lnkd.in/etRaGa-t

US Debt Hits $35 Trillion! 😱 The U.S. debt has soared to a staggering $35 trillion, as confirmed by the U.S. Treasury Department. In this video, we break down the national debt into two critical components: debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings. Discover how this immense debt level could lead to increased interest rates and potentially impact economic growth. Stay informed and understand the implications of our growing national debt. Don't forget to like and share this video to spread awareness! #USDebt #NationalDebt #EconomicGrowth #InterestRates #PublicDebt #Finance #Economy #USTreasury Follow our channel Global Trade Insights for more insightful information on International Trade & Commerce: https://lnkd.in/d2QEbrYc

🌍 America's Debt Hits Record High! 📈 Did you know government debt now stands at $315 trillion, nearly 330% of global GDP? What does this mean for the economy? What tough decisions will the Fed need to make? Listen or read our latest white paper to find out. Watch Verdence CIO, Megan Horneman report: https://hubs.ly/Q02Gbyk50 #GlobalEconomy #DebtCrisis #FinanceNews #EconomicTrends #MarketAnalysis #GovernmentDebt #PandemicImpact #FinancialRisk #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentStrategy #WhitePaperFindings #MarketVolatility #EconomicGrowth #FinancialMarkets

🇺🇸🚨CRAZYYYY…While everyone was busy talking about AI stocks this week, the US borrowed another $100 BILLION in 4 days. The US national debt is $34.5 trillion and rising $1 trillion every 100 days and up $11.2 TRILLION since 2020. $32T to $33T = 92 days $33T to $34T = 106 days $34T to $35T is on pace for 100 days Within a few years, don't be surprised when the US national debt is increase at $1 trillion per 30 days. At the current pace, the US deficit for this fiscal year will cross $3 trillion, nearly double the $1.6 trillion deficit that Congress estimated. We should see $35 trillion+ in US debt within a couple of months.

US Debt Hits $35 Trillion! 😱 The U.S. debt has soared to a staggering $35 trillion, as confirmed by the U.S. Treasury Department. In this video, we break down the national debt into two critical components: debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings. Discover how this immense debt level could lead to increased interest rates and potentially impact economic growth. Stay informed and understand the implications of our growing national debt. Don't forget to like and share this video to spread awareness! #USDebt #NationalDebt #EconomicGrowth #InterestRates #PublicDebt #Finance #Economy #USTreasury Follow our channel Global Trade Insights for more insightful information on International Trade & Commerce: https://lnkd.in/gK3CQhqh

As is often the case, David Zervos makes an interesting and counterintuitive argument about US debt dynamics. While the deficit numbers may be frightening (6% in 2024), nominal growth has also been high in recent years. As a result, the Debt/GDP ratio is falling from a peak of 133% to current levels of 120%. Furthermore, and not a minor fact, the Fed still holds 7 trn of treasuries on its balance sheet, and is unlikely to get rid of them. This implies that the government's net position is about 100%, i.e. the same level as pre-Covid. 👉 The full interview: https://lnkd.in/dqmxq-kT Video Source: CNBC Interview with David Zervos - Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies Credits: Vittorio Treichler - Partner and Market Strategist at NOVUM CAPITAL PARTNERS SA #USDebt #FiscalPolicy #DebtToGDP #FederalReserve #MacroEconomics"