Marc Gilgen’s Post

Bumping this excellent piece by my former colleague David Silberman for Open Banker. I am in heated agreed with David that, as far as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau goes, "there is less to Loper than meets the eye." Since we're already talking about administrative law, it's worth noting that the new administration cannot simply "scrap" final CFPB rules. Under the Administrative Procedure Act, amending or rescinding final rules is itself "agency action" subject to the APA. That means the CFPB must promulgate a new rule to replace the old one; it cannot act arbitrarily or capriciously; and, under SCOTUS precedent, it must consider reliance interests. So what does this mean for the Bureau's rulemaking agenda? --BNPL: this is agency guidance, not a rule; it can be revoked (and I expect it will be). -- EWA: this is agency guidance, not a rule; also, it is not yet final. I would not expect the Director to finalize it now. -- Section 1033: this is a final rule! Given the procedural hurdles and overall support for the rule (despite the BPI lawsuit), I would not expect immediate, major changes. -- Credit card late fees: this is a final rule! But, the current lawsuit provides an easier avenue for the new administration to effectively rescind this rule. -- General Use Digital Payment Apps Supervision: this rule is not yet final. My money is that the Director finalizes it soon, and that risk of repeal under CRA is low.

Peter marries again. More details in the comment section

Comment down below if you know Ann Frank or Hellen Keller

How "off" is the current CPI measurement, which is driving Fed policy? Peter Linneman joined Willy Walker this week on Willy's regular webinar, talking CRE, inflation, etc. Peter says early on in the discussion, about the Fed, "at some point they have to be smarter than just looking at a headline number." Sadly, I disagree, they (the Fed) refuses to do that:( Unlike Peter I remain as I have been all year - very skeptical of more than one or two rate cuts this year. "Shame on me from expecting rationality from a government agency," Peter said (about having predicted last year that we'd have rate cuts by last fall). That's entirely the problem, rationality hasn't been in play for years. I think the real data is even more absurd than what they note, though (keep reading). Peter and Willy discuss that over 1/3 (~36%) of the current CPI measurement is housing cost, but that it does not impact everyone, unlike much of the rest of the component list of CPI. Everyone pays higher gas and food prices, but if you own a home without a mortgage, or with a mortgage that has your rate locked in already, interest rate movement today has no effect on your housing costs whatsoever. Zero. That is the case for nearly 2/3 of US households. "Owner's Equivalent Rent", is about 2/3 of the housing measurement in the CPI (actual rental units are the other 1/3). OER is therefore ~1/4 of the entire CPI index. Willy notes that the numbers used for OER in the index are not even actual data, they are from an opinion survey (literally, "how much would you rent your house for today if you wanted to rent it out?")! Yep, ~25% of the CPI is essentially a Family Feud survey. UGH. In 2023, there were 4.8 million home sales in the US. There are 131.2 million US households, so at most, 3.65% of the country - those that bought a home last year - were actually impacted by mortgage interest rates, and that even ignores all the cash buyers who didn't get a mortgage. The greatest irony is that by keeping interest rates high, the Fed is the one that increases the real cost of home ownership for those people, and simultaneously limits supply growth that would also bring pricing down in a more competitive seller market, both of which would then help LOWER CPI...

Join us for the screening and a panel discussion with Shuja Moore!

Here's a discussion with Deirdre Caren and Daniel Lambert.

An eye-opening and impactful video! 👀 Our consumption-driven society is pushing the earth's ecological system to its limits. 🌍 We need new ways of thinking and innovation that lead to behavioral change! 💡 #Sustainability #ClimateChange #SustainableThinking

Want to learn more about real estate in Dr. Phillips?

I enjoy what I do these days as a financial services VC investor at Fenway Summer, but there is no denying that it is, from time to time, a bit odd. One symptom of this oddness is the frequency with which I receive breathless recommendations for AI-generated content about a field that (for better or worse, probably worse) I happen to know know reasonably well: financial regulation and policy. And I have so far hated all of these AI-generated “insights”, because anything that is at all novel that these models spit out seems obviously wrong, and anything not wrong seems obvious. And they uniformly seem to have been written by the most boring junior high school English teacher you have ever met. Contrast that AI experience with this missive from Bank Policy Institute CEO Gregory Baer on Open Banker: a unique voice, blending novel ideas with deep experience, and a paradoxically conservative aggressiveness that only Greg can muster. (Although I suppose industry veterans like Todd H Baker and F Greg Hertrich bring some of those same qualities to bear). In any case, please give this a read. And thank you, John Pitts and Ashwin Vasan, for creating a platform for this kind of refreshing thought leadership.

Read the entire article of Bob Garon here: https://lnkd.in/gfjbm5Me