Marathon Asset Management reposted this
Let’s assume corporate/individual tax rates will be lowered, but it’s my opinion that the President-elect will not rush tax cuts into his first-year agenda since the current 2017 tax code does not expire until year-end 2025. Since the President-elect has this extra year to address tax cuts, he will likely focus on his more pressing policy agenda items that are also a priority which he will want to get done in the first year, knowing they have a 2-year window before mid-term elections with plenty of time to return to taxes. Timing wise, I expect these agenda items to be addressed in Year 1: 1) Tariff negotiations out of the shoot to be led by the masterful and brilliant Howard W. Lutnick (first volley is 60% tariffs for China & 10-20% for ROW) 2) Regulatory relief to ‘unburden what has been burdened’ (Banks, M&A, Energy, etc) 3) Immigration/Border enforcement 4) DOGE led by the greatest technologist and operator of my lifetime 5) Roll-back of select IRA provisions i.e. tax credits granted to green initiatives that have thus far resulted in ~$1T revenue loss for IRS as these companies took the tax credits and sell them to companies that buy the credits and reduce their taxes (i.e. tech companies and money-center banks are largest buyers of tax credits). As for tariffs, I don’t believe the pundits, thus far tariffs have added little to core inflation rate - exporters will eat their tariff to keep the business; +currency devalues v. US$ for export nations to remain competitive (same tariff result 8 years ago during the first administration). Who will be the next head of Treasury Department? Your guess is as good as mine, but Treasury Secretary Rowan has a nice sound to it. While Marc is an outsider to the DC establishment, I believe most of us in the investment world know he would do an amazing job. It’s an important role that critical for the economy. Policies impact markets, how pro-growth will policies be, will business confidence take a step-function higher, what baskets are the winners/losers? Just some of the questions to ask. For instance, what’s in your M&A basket (companies most likely to be acquired) vs. your loser basket (clean energy, hospitals, vaccine pharma-focused).
Secretary Richards?
Chief executive officer – Loona Ventures | Venture Partner in Early-Stage Web3 Projects | Enabling Crypto Startups and Advancing Worldwide Blockchain Innovation
6dThis is a really insightful breakdown of what to expect in the President-elect’s first year! It’s clear that tax cuts might take a backseat for now, given the timeline on the 2017 tax code and the more immediate issues at hand. I agree that tariffs, regulatory relief, and immigration enforcement will likely dominate the first year. The idea of tackling tariffs head-on, especially with Howard Lutnick at the helm, could have significant economic implications. I’m particularly curious about how the roll-back of IRA provisions, especially around green initiatives, will impact the broader economy and tax strategy for corporations. As for Treasury Secretary, I’m intrigued by the possibility of someone like Marc Rowan, who would bring a fresh perspective to a very traditional role. It’s exciting to think about how his approach might influence economic policy and market confidence. Looking forward to seeing how these agenda items evolve and their impact on M&A activity. Great points here, especially around identifying potential winners and losers in the current climate!