Mairead O' Shea’s Post

Botswana's 2024 Elections: AI-Generated Projection Based on a Median Case Scenario Botswana's 2024 elections, gave me an opportunity to tinker with a pet project. An AI-driven projection for the election outcome, providing a forecast, specifically focusing on a median case that avoids assuming a full swing of undecided voters to the UDC. Projected Seat Allocation and Statistical Analysis: BDP: * Projected to win 27 seats with 44% of the vote. * Confidence Interval (95%): BDP’s seat range is estimated at [24 - 29] seats, variability in swing constituencies. UDC: * Expected to gain 21 seats with around 32% of the vote. * Confidence Interval (95%): Likely to secure [19 - 23] seats, strength in urban areas. BCP: * Estimated to win 6-8 seats with 19% of the vote. Confidence Interval (95%): BCP’s seat estimate ranges from [6 - 8] seats, moderately secure base with lower variability. BPF: * Projected to maintain 4 seats with 4% of the vote, particularly in Serowe and surrounding areas. Drawing on historical data, recent polling, and voter behavior trends, this analysis captures the evolving political landscape shaped by key swing constituencies and undecided voters. 🔍 Government Formation Scenarios and Probabilities Using projected seat distributions, we identified three possible government formations, each with unique coalition dynamics and probabilities of success: BDP-BPF Alliance: BDP’s 27 seats combined with BPF’s 4 would bring the coalition to 31 seats, just shy of an absolute majority. Probability of Success: High (80%), relying on the stability of BDP's rural base. UDC-BCP-BPF Coalition: A UDC-led coalition with BCP (6-8 seats) and BPF (4 seats) would secure 33 seats—a comfortable majority with strong urban and semi-urban support. Probability of Success: Moderate (65%), with potential competition in swing regions. Alternative UDC-BCP Alliance: Without BPF, this coalition would fall short at 29 seats, making it less viable for majority governance. 🗳️ Key Swing Constituencies and the Influence of Undecided Voters Pivotal Swing Constituencies: Regions like Gabane-Mmankgodi, Molepolole North, Gaborone North, Maun North, and Okavango North are crucial in determining the seat distribution for BDP and UDC. Impact of Undecided Voters: Traditionally favoring opposition in urban areas, undecided voters could add 5-10% variability in these competitive regions, especially Maun North and Okavango North, Mochudi, Lobatse & Gaborone. #BotswanaElections2024 #DataDriven #SwingVote #AIPrediction #PoliticalAnalysis

The recent Lok Sabha elections in Punjab revealed some fascinating and complex political dynamics. Despite its controversial history, particularly with Operation Blue Star and the anti-Sikh violence of 1984, the Congress party managed to win seven out of the thirteen seats. However, the elections in Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot showed a different picture, where issues related to these historical events caused voters to turn against Congress, leading to victories for radical candidates. Amritpal Singh, who is jailed under NSA, won the Khadoor Sahib seat, and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, another Sikh radical, won in Faridkot. It's important to note that these wins don't represent a broad support for separatism across the state. Instead, they reflect the specific local sentiments and issues that resonated with voters in these areas. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) continued to show its strength in Punjab, winning three seats. This is noteworthy given their sweeping victory in the 2022 Assembly elections. However, despite their previous success, the AAP couldn't secure a larger mandate this time, indicating that their strategies might not have resonated as well with voters. The election results also highlighted that offering freebies didn't significantly sway the electorate. The AAP, despite such tactics, didn't gain overwhelming support, suggesting that voters were more concerned with other issues. One interesting aspect of this election was the rejection of party hoppers. Of the fourteen candidates who switched parties, twelve lost. This outcome indicates that local issues and the personal appeal of candidates played a significant role in voters' decisions. Unlike other states, there were no alliances between major parties like Congress and AAP in Punjab. This strategic choice by Congress aimed to capitalize on the dissatisfaction with the Bhagwant Mann government, which worked in their favor. The election also marked a setback for the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which only won one seat. This defeat raises questions about the future of the party. On the other hand, the BJP saw its vote share nearly double, but it didn't win any seats. The BJP's performance was hurt by widespread farmer protests and the urban-rural divide in voter support. Punjab Lok Sabha elections showcased a complex mix of historical legacies, local issues, and evolving voter preferences. The rise of radical candidates in some areas, the success of INC, and the struggles of traditional parties like SAD and BJP reflect the diverse and dynamic nature of Punjab's political landscape.

🤔 Looking for a very different take on the election? 🗳 Check out my new article in the Boston Review: "Beyond Elections." I argue that our obsession with elections is killing democracy. And that we need a more balanced approach to democracy, if we want to counter the rise of authoritarianism. After the US presidential debate, I was struck by the response of Elizabeth Brown, an undecided voter interviewed on NPR: "I know that the Black community usually vote blue. We have no results. In my community, no matter who was in the White House, my life have not changed." We pour billions of dollars into elections, but throughout history, elections alone have generally ended up benefiting elites and failing to deliver promised change. In Ancient Athens they developed a solution to these problems of elections - they called it "democracy." Democracy then meant direct participation in government decision-making - including elections but also governing councils of randomly selected citizens and popular assemblies to directly vote on policies. A growing global movement is updating and expanding this more balanced approach. I believe that this is our biggest hope for democracy, and an essential strategy for fighting authoritarianism. -- "We certainly need to defend and improve electoral systems, but a single-minded focus on elections is itself part of our democratic malaise. Most people don’t believe that elections are delivering actual democracy—government by and for the people—and they’re right... We need to stop obsessing over one single flawed aspect of democracy and embrace different ways for people to decide different issues in different contexts. The only solution is many solutions.... When antidemocratic movements attack elections, our natural response is to defend elections. But in doing so, we opt into the discussion that antidemocratic forces want to have, in one of the few areas where they enjoy popular support: “Elections aren’t working so well, are they?” Rather than just defending elections, it’s time to advance a bolder vision of democracy. Antidemocratic movements have won support by calling for a radical transformation of government. It’s time for pro-democracy movements to counter with an equally ambitious transformation, from a dysfunctional system dominated by elections to a healthy ecosystem of diverse democratic practices." -- The article is part of a forum on elections, with excellent pieces by Danielle Allen, Deepak Bhargava & Arianna Jimenez, Daniel Schlozman & Sam Rosenfeld, Tabatha Abu El-Haj, Grant Tudor & Cerin Lindgrensavage, Joel Rogers, Ian Shapiro, Bob Master, and Maurice Mitchell & Doran Schrantz, all responding to an article by Lee Drutman. My piece builds on my recent white paper From Waves to Ecosystems (https://lnkd.in/eTN83M5B), so if you want to dive deeper, check it out. The Boston Review article: https://lnkd.in/ezBfHTg8

Title: The Dynamics of Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Shaping India's Political Landscape As India gears up for the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, anticipation and speculation swirl around the political arena. With each election comes a unique blend of challenges, promises, and aspirations that shape the country's democratic fabric. The upcoming elections are poised to be a crucial juncture in India's political trajectory, marked by several key factors. Firstly, the incumbent government's performance over the preceding term will inevitably be under scrutiny. Citizens will assess whether promises made have been fulfilled, policies enacted have been effective, and governance has been transparent and accountable. This evaluation forms the basis for voters' decisions and can significantly influence the electoral outcome. Secondly, the opposition's strategy and cohesion play a pivotal role in shaping the electoral landscape. A strong, united opposition can pose a formidable challenge to the ruling party, offering voters a credible alternative. Conversely, a fragmented opposition may struggle to coalesce around a common agenda, potentially diluting its electoral impact. Thirdly, socio-economic issues such as unemployment, inflation, healthcare, and education continue to be central themes in Indian politics. The electorate's assessment of each party's stance and proposed solutions on these issues will heavily influence voting patterns. Additionally, regional dynamics and local concerns often exert significant influence, particularly in a diverse and heterogeneous country like India. Furthermore, the role of technology and social media in shaping electoral narratives cannot be overstated. With the proliferation of digital platforms, political parties are increasingly leveraging these mediums to disseminate their messages, engage with voters, and mobilize support. The effective harnessing of digital tools can significantly impact a party's outreach and electoral prospects. Lastly, the electoral process itself, including campaign financing, candidate selection, and polling logistics, plays a critical role in ensuring free, fair, and transparent elections. Electoral reforms aimed at enhancing the integrity and inclusivity of the electoral process are essential for upholding the democratic principles enshrined in the Indian Constitution. In conclusion, the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 hold immense significance for India's democratic journey. As citizens exercise their right to vote, they not only shape the composition of the government but also reaffirm their commitment to democracy. It is a time for reflection, debate, and ultimately, a collective expression of the will of the people. As the nation prepares to embark on this democratic exercise, the world watches with anticipation, recognizing the enduring importance of India's electoral process in shaping its political future. #snsinstitution #snsdesignthinkers #designthinking

Today I feel proud to be the part of the election process of the largest democracy of the world! One of the fascinating facts about the ongoing Lok Sabha elections in India is the sheer scale of its voting population. With over a billion eligible voters, it is the world's largest democracy in terms of electorate. In fact, the voting population of India alone exceeds the total population of several large countries worldwide. Another remarkable aspect is the diversity within the electorate. India is home to a multitude of languages, religions, and cultures. The elections provide a platform where people from various backgrounds exercise their democratic right and participate in shaping the country's future. The scale and significance of the Lok Sabha elections in India compared to other major democracies are as below: 1. Voting Population: With more than a billion eligible voters, India's Lok Sabha elections surpass the entire population of other major democracies like the United States, Brazil, United Kingdom and Australia. 2. Number of Polling Booths: The Lok Sabha elections in India witness an extensive network of polling booths. The sheer magnitude of this logistical feat is evident when compared to other democracies. For example, India has over 1 million polling stations, whereas the United States, with a significantly smaller population, has around 200,000. 3. Political Parties: India boasts a vibrant multi-party system. During the Lok Sabha elections, numerous political parties contest for seats in the parliament. This multi-party landscape distinguishes Indian elections from countries like the United States, which predominantly operates on a two-party system. 4. Election Expenditure: The Lok Sabha elections involve substantial spending by political parties and candidates. In comparison, the campaign expenditures for presidential elections in the United States are known to surpass billions of dollars. However, considering the vastness and diversity of India, its election expenditure becomes significant in terms of purchasing power parity. 5. Duration of Elections: The Lok Sabha elections typically span several weeks, making it one of the longest election processes in the world. In contrast, countries like the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom often complete their national elections within a single day or a shorter period. These comparative statistics shed light on the enormous scale, complexity, and significance of the Lok Sabha elections in India, showcasing the strength and diversity of its democratic process. Ultimately, the Lok Sabha elections in India showcase the power of democracy in action. It reflects the collective voice of the people, their aspirations, and their ability to influence the course of their nation & eventually of the world.

Title: The Dynamics of Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Shaping India's Political Landscape As India gears up for the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, anticipation and speculation swirl around the political arena. With each election comes a unique blend of challenges, promises, and aspirations that shape the country's democratic fabric. The upcoming elections are poised to be a crucial juncture in India's political trajectory, marked by several key factors. Firstly, the incumbent government's performance over the preceding term will inevitably be under scrutiny. Citizens will assess whether promises made have been fulfilled, policies enacted have been effective, and governance has been transparent and accountable. This evaluation forms the basis for voters' decisions and can significantly influence the electoral outcome. Secondly, the opposition's strategy and cohesion play a pivotal role in shaping the electoral landscape. A strong, united opposition can pose a formidable challenge to the ruling party, offering voters a credible alternative. Conversely, a fragmented opposition may struggle to coalesce around a common agenda, potentially diluting its electoral impact. Thirdly, socio-economic issues such as unemployment, inflation, healthcare, and education continue to be central themes in Indian politics. The electorate's assessment of each party's stance and proposed solutions on these issues will heavily influence voting patterns. Additionally, regional dynamics and local concerns often exert significant influence, particularly in a diverse and heterogeneous country like India. Furthermore, the role of technology and social media in shaping electoral narratives cannot be overstated. With the proliferation of digital platforms, political parties are increasingly leveraging these mediums to disseminate their messages, engage with voters, and mobilize support. The effective harnessing of digital tools can significantly impact a party's outreach and electoral prospects. Lastly, the electoral process itself, including campaign financing, candidate selection, and polling logistics, plays a critical role in ensuring free, fair, and transparent elections. Electoral reforms aimed at enhancing the integrity and inclusivity of the electoral process are essential for upholding the democratic principles enshrined in the Indian Constitution. In conclusion, the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 hold immense significance for India's democratic journey. As citizens exercise their right to vote, they not only shape the composition of the government but also reaffirm their commitment to democracy. It is a time for reflection, debate, and ultimately, a collective expression of the will of the people. As the nation prepares to embark on this democratic exercise, the world watches with anticipation, recognizing the enduring importance of India's electoral process in shaping its political future. #snsinstitution #snsdesignthinkers #designthinking

Title: The Dynamics of Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Shaping India's Political Landscape As India gears up for the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, anticipation and speculation swirl around the political arena. With each election comes a unique blend of challenges, promises, and aspirations that shape the country's democratic fabric. The upcoming elections are poised to be a crucial juncture in India's political trajectory, marked by several key factors. Firstly, the incumbent government's performance over the preceding term will inevitably be under scrutiny. Citizens will assess whether promises made have been fulfilled, policies enacted have been effective, and governance has been transparent and accountable. This evaluation forms the basis for voters' decisions and can significantly influence the electoral outcome. Secondly, the opposition's strategy and cohesion play a pivotal role in shaping the electoral landscape. A strong, united opposition can pose a formidable challenge to the ruling party, offering voters a credible alternative. Conversely, a fragmented opposition may struggle to coalesce around a common agenda, potentially diluting its electoral impact. Thirdly, socio-economic issues such as unemployment, inflation, healthcare, and education continue to be central themes in Indian politics. The electorate's assessment of each party's stance and proposed solutions on these issues will heavily influence voting patterns. Additionally, regional dynamics and local concerns often exert significant influence, particularly in a diverse and heterogeneous country like India. Furthermore, the role of technology and social media in shaping electoral narratives cannot be overstated. With the proliferation of digital platforms, political parties are increasingly leveraging these mediums to disseminate their messages, engage with voters, and mobilize support. The effective harnessing of digital tools can significantly impact a party's outreach and electoral prospects. Lastly, the electoral process itself, including campaign financing, candidate selection, and polling logistics, plays a critical role in ensuring free, fair, and transparent elections. Electoral reforms aimed at enhancing the integrity and inclusivity of the electoral process are essential for upholding the democratic principles enshrined in the Indian Constitution. In conclusion, the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 hold immense significance for India's democratic journey. As citizens exercise their right to vote, they not only shape the composition of the government but also reaffirm their commitment to democracy. It is a time for reflection, debate, and ultimately, a collective expression of the will of the people. As the nation prepares to embark on this democratic exercise, the world watches with anticipation, recognizing the enduring importance of India's electoral process in shaping its political future. #snsinstitution #snsdesignthinkers #designthinking

https://lnkd.in/euWVnKYS BJP Dominates Panchayat Elections in Tripura: A Comprehensive Analysis of the 2024 Results In the recent Panchayat elections held on August 8, 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved a sweeping victory across Tripura, dominating all seats in West Tripura district except for a few in the Dukli Rural Development Block. With high voter turnout and decisive wins, the BJP's performance underscores its stronghold in the state. This article delves into the election results, the implications for local governance, and the government's upcoming job initiatives. BJP Dominates Panchayat Elections in Tripura: A Comprehensive Analysis of the 2024 Results #TripuraElections2024 BJP Sweeps Panchayat Elections in Tripura: A Comprehensive Overview The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has secured a resounding victory in the recent Panchayat elections in Tripura, further cementing its dominance in the state’s political landscape. The elections, held on August 8, 2024, marked a significant event in Tripura’s political calendar, and the results have sent ripples across the state’s political spectrum. Election Overview The three-tier Panchayat elections in Tripura encompassed elections for 17 Zilla Parishads, Panchayat Samitis, and a multitude of Panchayat Seats across various districts. These elections are crucial as they directly impact local governance and the grassroots-level administration in the state. Voter turnout was notably high, with 79.06 percent of eligible voters casting their ballots, indicating the election’s importance to the people of Tripura. BJP’s Decisive Victory The BJP’s performance in these elections has been nothing short of remarkable. The party has won almost all the seats in the West Tripura district, a region that is often seen as a bellwether for the state’s overall political climate. The BJP’s sweep across the district is a clear indicator of its strong organizational presence and the support it enjoys among the local populace. The only exception to this near-total dominance in West Tripura was in the Dukli Rural Development Block, where the Tipra Motha Party (TMP) managed to secure one or two seats. The TMP’s victory in these few seats, while a minor setback for the BJP, highlights the presence of regional parties that continue to maintain influence in certain pockets of the state. This election serves as a reminder of the dynamic nature of democracy in India, where local governance plays a crucial role in shaping the broader political environment. The results of the Panchayat elections in Tripura will undoubtedly influence the political strategies of all parties as they prepare for the next major electoral contests in the state. #BJPPanchayatVictory #TripuraElections2024 #WestTripuraResults #TipraMothaParty #TripuraPolitics #ManikSaha #TripuraGovernance #LocalElections

Why Namibia Needs a New Approach to Presidential Elections: Namibia’s democracy, once a model of post-independence unity, is beginning to show its age. As election results trickle in, it appears that Swapo’s dominance (a political reality since 1990) is under threat. Preliminary results so far indicate a relatively close parliamentary contest. In a 2020 judgement, the Supreme Court aptly observed that elections are not perfect instruments for upholding democracy’s promises, yet they remain necessary for delegating the public’s inherent power to its representatives. These imperfections should inspire us to pursue reforms that better deliver on the democratic promise. GROWING DIVERSITY The current electoral system, though legally sound, is poorly equipped to manage Namibia’s growing political diversity. With dozens of parties contesting elections, the presidential race has become overwhelmingly crowded. This year, at least three new parties joined the fray, continuing a trend that shows no signs of slowing. In a system where the winner must secure a majority, this proliferation of parties creates a paradox: The more options there are, the less likely it is for any single party to reach the threshold. Instead of fostering a vibrant multiparty democracy, it entrenches the dominance of a single party by default. This system enriches debate and ensures that the National Assembly reflects a broad spectrum of voices. But for the presidency, it dilutes the electorate’s voice, creating a vacuum where a dominant party like Swapo can prevail simply because the opposition is too fragmented to mount a unified challenge. LET’S CHANGE THE DYNAMICS What Namibia needs is a mandatory two-round presidential election system. Currently, a second round only occurs if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round. This reactive approach misses a crucial opportunity to reshape how Namibians engage with their political choices. A mandatory two-round system would change the game entirely, forcing the electorate to first select two parties and their candidates for the final presidential race. This would serve as a national filter, compelling every party to prove its relevance and ability to command broad, nationwide support. Smaller parties, which often face resource constraints, would have a chance to showcase their platforms and test their resonance with voters. By the second round, the focus would narrow to two candidates, each vying for the endorsement of a true majority. Such a system has several advantages. First, it levels the playing field. By reducing the number of parties competing for the presidency early, it mitigates the practical constraints smaller parties face. Second, it encourages political accountability. A mandatory two-round system ensures that parties cannot simply rely on nostalgia or historic goodwill to secure votes; they…

Electoral Trajectory of BJP in Andhra Pradesh- 2024 Elections The fallout between the TDP and BJP just before the 2019 elections over the issue of Special Category Status to Andhra Pradesh was a significant turning point in Andhra Pradesh politics. The TDP's decision to sever ties with the BJP and subsequent defeat in the elections, along with the Jana Sena Party's poor electoral performance, marked a clear shift in the political landscape of the state. In the dynamics of Indian politics, alliances shape the outcome of elections, determining the course of governance and development. The coalition, forged under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeks to challenge the dominance of the incumbent regime and usher in a new era of progress and prosperity. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) indeed faces a critical juncture in Andhra Pradesh, a state with a tumultuous political landscape. Some key factors influencing BJP's strategic manoeuvres, particularly in coalition with the TDP and JSP are Historical Context, BJP's Ambitions, Coalition Dynamics, Leadership Factors, Regional Issues, Voter Demographics, Political Environment and Electoral Calculus. The significance of BJP’s support in Andhra Pradesh appears minimal, with its core base in the state aligning closely with NOTA (None of the Above). Despite the alliance between BJP, TDP, and JSP, the direct and indirect influence of BJP in the upcoming elections is questionable. Despite the alliance with TDP and JSP, BJP’s direct and indirect influence in the upcoming elections remains uncertain. With its core base dissatisfied and the timing of its influence late in the electoral process. The alliance negotiations have cast doubts on its utility, with Pawan Kalyan backing it while Naidu strategises for post-election scenarios. BJP faces vulnerabilities in Rayalaseema, and Jana Sena contends with financial constraints. The impending polls pit the welfare against alliance politics, demanding convincing assurances for existing schemes and additional benefits for BPL families. Failure to sway voters could jeopardize the coalition’s prospects. The major setback being faced by BJP’s alliance in Andhra Pradesh is the lack of grassroots leadership and cadre strength. The entire burden of carrying on the election process falls squarely on TDP party workers due to the absence of grassroots - level leadership or cadre within BJP or JSP. Majority of the leaders from BJP and JSP lacks cadre and grassroot connect. Despite the coalition’s goal to secure electoral gains and challenge the dominance of the YSRCP, its effectiveness remains uncertain. BJP's strategic manoeuvres in coalition aim to maximise electoral prospects while balancing competing interests and challenges.  The upcoming elections will serve as a litmus test for the effectiveness of these strategies and their impact on Andhra Pradesh's political trajectory. #bjp4India #Elections2024 #cbn