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Helped by higher crude and product trading profits and increased refining margins, Shell (NYSE: SHEL) smashed earnings estimates for the first quarter of the year and announced a new $3.5-billion share buyback as the UK-based supermajor looks to close the stock valuation gap to its U.S. peers. Shell reported on Thursday adjusted earnings of $7.7 billion for the first quarter, down from $9.6 billion for the same period of 2023. This year’s first-quarter earnings were higher by 6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, thanks to higher margins from crude and oil products trading and optimization, and higher refining margins, Shell said. The profit smashed the analyst consensus estimate of around $6.5 billion.        In the upstream segment, Shell’s total oil and gas production was in line with the fourth quarter of 2023 as higher scheduled maintenance was fully offset by improved performance and new oil delivery. The chemicals and products business boosted earnings due to higher refining margins, driven by higher utilization and global supply disruptions. Petroleum products trading and optimization earnings were significantly higher than in Q4 2023, Shell said. Adjusted earnings in the integrated gas division fell from Q4, due to lower contributions from trading and optimization, which Shell, the world's top LNG trader, had already flagged last month. Shell said in April that it expects the trading results in its Integrated Gas division to be lower in the first quarter of 2024 compared to an exceptionally strong fourth quarter of 2023. Much lower natural gas prices this year compared to 2023 dragged down profits at some of the largest oil and gas companies. U.S. supermajors ExxonMobil and Chevron, as well as France’s TotalEnergies, all cited lower natural gas prices as a key downward pressure on earnings that couldn’t be fully offset by stable crude oil and liquids realizations and refining margins. At Shell, the higher crude and product trading and higher refining margins offset the weakness in natural gas and the firm trumped earnings estimates. “We continue to deliver on our Capital Markets Day targets, giving us the confidence to commence another $3.5 billion buyback programme for the next three months,” CEO Wael Sawan said. Over the last four quarters, total shareholder distributions paid were 41% of cash flow from operations (CFFO), Shell said. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Earning calls show Exxon, Chevron, and TotalEnergies take a hit after the price of Natural gas falls. CFO of TotalEnergies Jean-Pierre Sbaire claims, "a mild winter and high storage levels" are responsible for the decline. Exxon and TotalEnergies losing over 20% in profits and Chevron 16%. Futures traders are are expecting prices to continue to fall. However, Exxon and Chevron are hoping that once their new acquisitions are approved, profits will begin to raise once again. #pge301 https://lnkd.in/dRGT66Mw

#natgas #prices vs #bigoil Much lower natural gas prices this year compared to 2023 dragged down profits at some of the largest oil and gas companies, which have so far reported a mixed bag of earnings for the first quarter of 2024. U.S. supermajors ExxonMobil and Chevron, as well as France's TotalEnergies, all cited lower natural gas prices as a key downward pressure on earnings that couldn't be fully offset by stable crude oil and liquids realizations and refining margins. Exxon reported on Friday underwhelming earnings for the first quarter that were lower than consensus estimates due to declining natural gas prices and non-cash adjustments. The U.S. supermajor booked first-quarter earnings of $8.2 billion, down from $11.4 billion for the first quarter of 2023. Earnings per share were $2.06 for the first quarter of 2024, down from $2.79 for the same period last year. During the first quarter, the benchmark U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub mostly traded below $2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) amid a market glut in a warmer winter and lower demand. The low prices even prompted major gas-focused producers to curtail some output in March and April. Similarly to Chevron, European major TotalEnergies also beat first-quarter estimates even as its net income dropped by 22% from a year ago. Stable oil prices and healthy refining margins failed to fully offset a decline in natural gas prices, but helped TotalEnergies beat analyst forecasts as it reported Q1 earnings on Friday. The company announced additional share buybacks and an increase in the first interim dividend for 2024. UK-based Shell, the world's top LNG trader ahead of TotalEnergies, said earlier this month that it expects the trading results in its Integrated Gas division to be lower in the first quarter of 2024 compared to an exceptionally strong fourth quarter of 2023. The trading and optimization results in Integrated Gas "are expected to be strong, but significantly lower than an exceptional Q4'23," the company said ahead of the results release on May 2. Source: OilPrice.com 👇👇👇🛢 https://lnkd.in/dQS4ixRA #globalenergy #oilgas

Shell reported first-quarter profit of $7.7 billion on Thursday, sharply beating expectations after disruptions in the Red Sea and Russia lifted oil refining and trading. The company also said it will repurchase a further $3.5 billion of its shares over the next three months, at a similar rate to the previous quarter. Its dividend remained unchanged. Shell's cashflow rose by 6% from the previous quarter to $13.3 billion reflecting strong operational performance, which together with trading helped offset a decline in natural gas prices that weighed on earnings of rivals including Exxon Mobil. https://lnkd.in/d3y2NPTR

Exxon Mobil and Chevron have posted mixed results in the face of fluctuating oil prices, global supply concerns, and strategic shifts. Exxon Mobil recorded a Q3 profit of $8.6 billion, reflecting a 5% drop year-over-year (YoY). The company’s earnings per share (EPS) of $1.92 exceeded expectations, although shares dipped by about 1.5%. Chevron posted $4.5 billion in Q3 profits, down a 31% YoY. Its EPS of $2.48 also beat market forecasts, boosting shares nearly 3%. Commitment to Shareholder Returns: Since early 2022, Exxon and Chevron have returned over $155 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, affirming their focus on investor value: Exxon holds $27 billion in cash reserves, enabling it to continue its substantial $20 billion annual buyback program. Chevron maintains $4.7 billion in cash, staying committed to its dividend and buyback policies. Market Pressures on Oil Prices: Global Oil Supply: Growing production from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and OPEC has increased supply and raised concerns about price stability. Additionally, Middle Eastern producers are considering adding another 2.2 million barrels per day within a year, which could further strain prices. Price Impact: Brent crude has declined 15% over the past six months, with analysts forecasting more downside if OPEC maintains high output levels. Strategic Positioning and Resilience: Cost Efficiency: Since 2019, Exxon has achieved $11.3 billion in cost savings, enhancing its competitive edge, especially as prices waver. Geopolitical and Demand Concerns: Global risks and a slowdown in China’s manufacturing activity continue to pose potential challenges, as demand from this major consumer remains under pressure. Long-Term Outlook: Small Producers: Analysts expect some U.S. shale companies may scale back buybacks or rely on debt to sustain them, as cash flow tightens with weaker prices. Supply Risks: Delays in replenishing reserves across the industry hint at possible future supply scarcity, which could support long-term price stability and value for oil producers.

ExxonMobil has issued a forecast indicating a potential decrease in its first-quarter earnings compared to the previous quarter, attributing the decline to falling oil and gas prices and reduced profits from mark-to-market derivatives. The company anticipates that its upstream division could face a $1 billion hit due to the lower commodity prices. Furthermore, earnings are expected to decrease by as much as $1.3 billion owing to timing effects, including unsettled derivatives from trading. While there might be gains from improved refining margins, these will likely be offset by increased scheduled maintenance activities. Despite this outlook, Exxon's shares remained relatively stable after-hours trading, maintaining a 19% increase for the year. This early guidance from Exxon, a leading figure among oil majors, suggests a possibly challenging earnings season ahead for the industry, contrasting with the previous period where most supermajors surpassed analysts' expectations even with lower commodity prices. https://lnkd.in/giEDDZFB

BP and Shell are set to post lower Q3 profits amid weak oil prices and slowing global demand. Both firms have warned of falling refining margins, and analysts predict a 30% drop in BP's net income.

Market Mover Alert: Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) surged ahead today, outpacing the broader market! Strong Q2 earnings, boosted by increased production volumes and higher oil prices, drove the stock price up 1.77%. Successful cost-cutting measures and optimistic guidance for future growth also contributed to investor confidence. This impressive performance demonstrates OXY's resilience in a volatile energy market, positioning the company for long-term success. What are your thoughts on OXY's momentum and the energy sector's outlook? #OccidentalPetroleum #OXY #EnergySector #StockMarket #MarketMovers https://lnkd.in/dPReetS3

Gelber Gas Daily (+ crude!) #NaturalGas -- Gelber & Associates Forecasts 76 Bcf Injection Into Storage for Week Ended May 24th: NYMEX natural gas futures are down -$0.15, last trading at $2.67/MMBtu. This morning, ConocoPhillips announced a $17 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil Corp. Dealmakers say the acquisition enhances ConocoPhillips' presence in key domestic shale regions and adds international reserves, marking another significant consolidation in upstream as producers position around expectations of sustained oil and gas demand. This acquisition is distinct in its focus on cost-cutting in mature shale fields, in comparison to others largely aimed at securing future drilling locations. Despite being smaller than acquisitions by Exxon and Chevron in late 2023, the deal could still attract scrutiny from the FTC over antitrust concerns. Speaking of Chevron, Hess shareholders approved its landmark $53 billion merger with the oil giant yesterday, despite an ongoing arbitration dispute with ExxonMobil over oil fields in Guyana. For the week ended May 24th, Gelber & Associates is forecasting a 76 Bcf injection into natural gas storage. This would bring US gas stocks to 2787 Bcf, narrowing the storage surplus for the fifth consecutive week. The five-year average injection for this time of year would be 104 Bcf, with last year's injection measured at 106 Bcf. The supply-demand balance was tighter than seasonal norms for the week, due to the higher temperatures primarily in the South Central which spurred an increase in power burn. As a result, most estimates ranged within a tight 75-85 Bcf range for the week, with analysts highly confident that the storage surplus to the 5-year average would continue to decrease. #Crude -- Crude Sees Limited Support From Sustained Middle East Risk Amid Rate Cut Worries: Crude oil futures are down -$0.56, last trading at $79.29/bbl. Crude extended this week’s rally up to the $80 level in the afternoon yesterday, managing to stay above it overnight before reverting back below it this morning. Crude prices remain somewhat supported by the bullish factor of heightened tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas (and most recently, Egypt). Offsetting this are movements in equities which reflect reduced hopes of rate cuts as expectations continue to be pushed back further out into the year. Prices in federal funds futures confirm that investors perceive the chances of rate cuts in September’s meeting being lower than they were last week or a month ago. #ConocoPhillips #MarathonOilCorporation #Marathon #Exxon #Chevron #Oilandgas #Commodities #NYMEX #HenryHub #Trading #Hedging #Gelber #markets #LNG #OPEC #oil #EIA #gas #gelber #WTI #Energy

Shares in BP fell by as much as four percent this morning after it warned it was expected to post an impairment of up to $2bn (1.6bn) and was operating under “significantly” lower refining margins.