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Chief Economist at Allianz, Senior Fellow at Harvard University | Economics, Investment, Insurance, Sustainability, Public Policy

Most recently, we wrote on #China, #Risk, durable #Goods and the #Currency war. Read ⬇️ 🌏 China's Economic Confidence Boost As China approaches its 75th anniversary, authorities are working hard to revitalize confidence. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a comprehensive package addressing policy rates, liquidity, the property sector, and the stock market, with unexpected guidance on future policies. However, to truly uplift domestic confidence, further fiscal spending is necessary, as hinted at in this week's Politburo meeting. Despite aiming for an official growth target of "around 5%" for this year, downside risks remain, while 2025 could see an upside to our forecast of +4.3%. 📊 Quarterly Country and Sector Risk Changes: Normalization Complete  We've upgraded 14 countries, reflecting the ongoing recovery in economic outlooks. Yet, the journey ahead is uneven due to protectionist policies and geopolitical tensions. In sectoral analysis, nine sectors have improved while five have declined. Downgrades were seen across all regions, particularly in the automotive sector in Germany and Switzerland, and the retail sector in China due to weak consumer outlooks. 📈 Durable Goods: Poised for a Rebound in 2025  Following a slowdown in 2022 and 2023, durable goods sales are projected to remain sluggish in 2024 but are set for a robust recovery in 2025. Key factors include decreasing financing costs, a shift from expensive services to goods, replacement cycles from 2021 purchases, technological innovation, and easing supply-chain disruptions. 💱 The Great Loosening Cycle: Balancing FX, Inflation, and Growth  Central banks are navigating a complex landscape. The Fed's significant cut is a positive move for the global FX market, yet challenges remain. We categorize countries into four clusters based on their priorities: Emerging Europe, Chile, and Colombia: Focus on boosting growth while managing inflation. Advanced economies in Europe, China, and Thailand: Growth with fewer inflation concerns. Most of Asia, Latin America, South Africa, and Norway: Slower easing due to weak exchange rates and financial stability. Large African economies, Türkiye, and Argentina: Restoring exchange rate confidence and reducing inflation. Switzerland and Japan may need interventions to manage appreciation pressures. #Ludonomics #AllianzTrade #Allianz https://lnkd.in/eby-DUBQ

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