Most recently, we wrote on #China, #Risk, durable #Goods and the #Currency war. Read ⬇️ 🌏 China's Economic Confidence Boost As China approaches its 75th anniversary, authorities are working hard to revitalize confidence. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a comprehensive package addressing policy rates, liquidity, the property sector, and the stock market, with unexpected guidance on future policies. However, to truly uplift domestic confidence, further fiscal spending is necessary, as hinted at in this week's Politburo meeting. Despite aiming for an official growth target of "around 5%" for this year, downside risks remain, while 2025 could see an upside to our forecast of +4.3%. 📊 Quarterly Country and Sector Risk Changes: Normalization Complete We've upgraded 14 countries, reflecting the ongoing recovery in economic outlooks. Yet, the journey ahead is uneven due to protectionist policies and geopolitical tensions. In sectoral analysis, nine sectors have improved while five have declined. Downgrades were seen across all regions, particularly in the automotive sector in Germany and Switzerland, and the retail sector in China due to weak consumer outlooks. 📈 Durable Goods: Poised for a Rebound in 2025 Following a slowdown in 2022 and 2023, durable goods sales are projected to remain sluggish in 2024 but are set for a robust recovery in 2025. Key factors include decreasing financing costs, a shift from expensive services to goods, replacement cycles from 2021 purchases, technological innovation, and easing supply-chain disruptions. 💱 The Great Loosening Cycle: Balancing FX, Inflation, and Growth Central banks are navigating a complex landscape. The Fed's significant cut is a positive move for the global FX market, yet challenges remain. We categorize countries into four clusters based on their priorities: Emerging Europe, Chile, and Colombia: Focus on boosting growth while managing inflation. Advanced economies in Europe, China, and Thailand: Growth with fewer inflation concerns. Most of Asia, Latin America, South Africa, and Norway: Slower easing due to weak exchange rates and financial stability. Large African economies, Türkiye, and Argentina: Restoring exchange rate confidence and reducing inflation. Switzerland and Japan may need interventions to manage appreciation pressures. #Ludonomics #AllianzTrade #Allianz https://lnkd.in/eby-DUBQ
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Last year marked another tough year for Chinese equities, extending a prolonged era of Covid-induced pain, writes David Perrett, Co-Head of Asia Pacific Equities. Globally, investor sentiment was kept in check by the US Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate rises and the strength of the dollar. Meanwhile in China, worries about weak economic growth and the problems in the country’s giant property sector dented confidence – but we think there are several reasons to remain constructive on China. https://ow.ly/TpVA50QNjzk #MandG
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Last year marked another tough year for Chinese equities, extending a prolonged era of Covid-induced pain, writes David Perrett, Co-Head of Asia Pacific Equities. Globally, investor sentiment was kept in check by the US Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate rises and the strength of the dollar. Meanwhile in China, worries about weak economic growth and the problems in the country’s giant property sector dented confidence – but we think there are several reasons to remain constructive on China. https://ow.ly/kvYU30sAA6M #MandG
Enter the dragon: Why China is competitively positioned
mandg.com
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Last year marked another tough year for Chinese equities, extending a prolonged era of Covid-induced pain, writes David Perrett, Co-Head of Asia Pacific Equities. Globally, investor sentiment was kept in check by the US Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate rises and the strength of the dollar. Meanwhile in China, worries about weak economic growth and the problems in the country’s giant property sector dented confidence – but we think there are several reasons to remain constructive on China. https://ow.ly/7fKO30sAAn1 #MandG
Enter the dragon: Why China is competitively positioned
mandg.com
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Last year marked another tough year for Chinese equities, extending a prolonged era of Covid-induced pain, writes David Perrett, Co-Head of Asia Pacific Equities. Globally, investor sentiment was kept in check by the US Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate rises and the strength of the dollar. Meanwhile in China, worries about weak economic growth and the problems in the country’s giant property sector dented confidence – but we think there are several reasons to remain constructive on China. https://ow.ly/IvNy30sAJnt #MandG
Enter the dragon: Why China is competitively positioned
mandg.com
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Last year marked another tough year for Chinese equities, extending a prolonged era of Covid-induced pain, writes David Perrett, Co-Head of Asia Pacific Equities. Globally, investor sentiment was kept in check by the US Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate rises and the strength of the dollar. Meanwhile in China, worries about weak economic growth and the problems in the country’s giant property sector dented confidence – but we think there are several reasons to remain constructive on China. https://ow.ly/IskH30sABQo #MandG
Enter the dragon: Why China is competitively positioned
mandg.com
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Last year marked another tough year for Chinese equities, extending a prolonged era of Covid-induced pain, writes David Perrett, Co-Head of Asia Pacific Equities. Globally, investor sentiment was kept in check by the US Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate rises and the strength of the dollar. Meanwhile in China, worries about weak economic growth and the problems in the country’s giant property sector dented confidence – but we think there are several reasons to remain constructive on China. https://ow.ly/Ok1h30sAPk5 #MandG
Enter the dragon: Why China is competitively positioned
mandg.com
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China's Rate Cuts Amidst Global Monetary Policy Divergence. China has taken a bold step to counteract economic headwinds by implementing successive interest rate cuts. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has lowered key lending rates, including a significant reduction in the one-year medium-term lending facility rate from 2.5% to 2.3%, injecting a substantial 200 billion yuan into the economy. This move stands in stark contrast to the prevailing monetary policy stance in many other major economies. While China is easing to stimulate growth, countries like the United States, Japan, and the European Union have adopted accommodative monetary policies in recent years to support their economies. The US is even considering further rate cuts in the near future. Nigeria presents an interesting dichotomy, as policymakers there have focused on raising interest rates to combat inflation. This highlights the diverse economic challenges faced by countries at different stages of development. Emerging markets such as India and Brazil are closely monitoring global interest rate trends. As these economies navigate their own growth paths, they must carefully assess the potential implications of rate adjustments on their domestic economies. Central banks worldwide are grappling with the complex task of balancing economic growth with inflation control. The Federal Reserve's decisions, in particular, often influence the monetary policy strategies of other central banks. The interconnectedness of the global economy means that interest rate changes in one country can have ripple effects on others. To effectively address shared economic challenges, international cooperation and coordination are essential. #ThisIsOurAfrica #MurakwaniAdvisory
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Currency volatility will create market pullbacks that could provide compelling opportunities for investors in Japan. That was the view of John W., Asia CIO at Lombard Odier, when he spoke to Asian Private Banker for a recent interview. Among a wide range of topics affecting investors in Asia, he spoke about the depreciating Chinese yuan; Japan’s bipolar economy in which a positive macro backdrop and external environment is set against domestic consumer concerns and limited wage growth; and upside potential in fixed income and the region’s semi-conductor industry. https://lnkd.in/g6GVSQ5F
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Since it was opened up and reformed in the late 1970s, China’s economy has grown at an average rate of 9% a year. Not this year. Facing strong disinflationary pressures, a severe property downturn and frail consumer confidence, China risks missing its own annual growth target of around 5%. So, as the week began, markets reacted enthusiastically to the People’s Bank of China unveiling a major package of aggressive measures designed to stimulate the economy. https://lnkd.in/eaM2Mx8g
WeekWatch - 30/09/2024
wylliewealth.co.uk
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Today, the fate of emerging countries is heavily tied to developments in the USA and China. The definition of independence is being redefined, as we are increasingly interconnected with the rest of the world. Consumer behaviors need to be thoroughly analyzed regionally and classified accordingly. Europeans may think differently, while the Chinese tend to save money, and Turkish people believe that inflation is ingrained in the economy and will persist. The same goes for investor behaviors! However, another factor that influences investor behavior is the behavior of countries themselves. The national debt burden of the USA is increasing like a snowball. Many believe that payments under the current interest rates are unsustainable, not to mention the financial aid to Ukraine and Israel. Meanwhile, some argue that the Chinese government is too late in boosting the economy, which is something we need to observe over time. Additionally, we need to closely monitor Japan, as they are one of the biggest holders of US Treasury bonds. Is "higher for longer" inflation the new standard? Please share your thoughts below! #China #USA #emergingmarkets #economy #finance
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