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Ludovic Subran Ludovic Subran is an Influencer

Chief Economist at Allianz, Senior Fellow at Harvard University | Economics, Investment, Insurance, Sustainability, Public Policy

🌍 Is 2024 the year for a global trade revival? According to the 3rd edition of our Allianz Trade Survey, 82% of companies are optimistic, expecting an increase in export business turnover. Nearly 40% foresee a significant surge of more than +5% in 2024. However, amidst this optimism, concerns about geopolitical risks, shortages of inputs and labor, and financing and non-payment risks persist. Our forecast is more conservative, projecting a +2.8% increase in global trade, below the long-term average of 5%, reflecting the potential impact of disruptions in global shipping and looming trade wars in the super electoral year. The survey, capturing the views of over 3,000 exporters from several countries, also reveals other key insights: Selective globalization: Half of the companies are contemplating relocating supply chains due to rising geopolitical concerns. Will they follow through? Three-body problem: Full decoupling from China is not evident yet. Tragedy of the horizons 2.0: While companies are gearing up to harness the potential of AI in trade, progress on greening trade is slow. Stay tuned for more insights from the 2024 Allianz Trade Global Survey! #GlobalTrade #ExportersOutlook #AllianzSurvey https://lnkd.in/eNmNAxfd

Allianz | Allianz Trade Survey 2024

Allianz | Allianz Trade Survey 2024

allianz.com

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