Fractional CFO | Board Advisor | Fundraiser | Mentor | Hiker |Table tennis player
https://lnkd.in/drPU9hJa US trade and industrial policy view of external balances is incomplete at best and should be replaced with a macro view.
Can Trade Intervention Lead to Freer Trade?
Car Crash Tariffs on China won't solve the West's failure to compete in higher value added production and will only make things worse for already angry consumers being forced to pay for the Globalist dreams of open borders and net zero. Europe is under pressure to match these tariffs, which like the ones on energy and raw materials will do more damage to their economy that the US and perhaps most critically, when the US has re-industrialised itself away from China, it has every incentive to allow the $ to fall.
The timing of US tariffs on Chinese EVs and Solar panels is political, but they also signal a significant shift in the Global Economy as Globalisation rapidly unravels. The reality is that China's competitive advantage is actually in automation, network effects, an integrated supply chain and a huge home market, which means that pretending it is about cheap labour and subsidies achieves nothing other than punishing consumers. Europe in particular can't compete with China because its energy costs are too high thanks to US led tariffs on Russia and the madness of net zero policies and US pressure to match these new tariffs threatens to seriously unbalance the unity of the EU - already troubled by populist push back against the key Globalist policies of open borders and net zero. Perhaps most important though is that a US economy that has successfully cut its import dependency is one that has every incentive to talk down the $. More at Market Thinking and also the mobile friendly marketthinker substack. Car Crash (market-thinking.com)
I help affluent families build sustainable wealth | ⭐ Leading Wealth Strategist | ⭐ Senior Financial Services Consultant | ⭐ Executive Director | ⭐ Distinguished Toastmaster
🌐📉 𝐏𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐔𝐒-𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐫: 𝐔𝐧𝐫𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐓𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 📈🌏 In this recent development that's causing ripples across financial markets, China has reportedly reduced its holdings of US Treasuries by a staggering $48.9 billion in one quarter. As a renowned economist, it’s vital to dissect what this means for the global economy and the mass affluent. 🔍 The divestment points toward escalating tensions, hinting at the prospect of a renewed trade war between the world's two most significant economic powerhouses. A trade conflict of this scale can severely disrupt international trade flows, upset commodity markets, and stoke inflation—factors that traditionally slow global growth. For the upper middle-class, who typically have diversified investment portfolios, such disruptions could mean: 1. Volatility: We can expect heightened market volatility, which can affect returns on investments ranging from stocks to real estate. 2. Investment Reassessment: Strategic portfolio rebalancing may become necessary, with a closer eye on safe-haven assets and sectors less impacted by trade tariffs. 3. Currency Fluctuations: With trade wars often come currency wars. Fluctuations can impact the value of international investments and spending power abroad. 4. Global Supply Chains: Any disruptions here could affect the performance of multinational companies, which are staples in many affluent portfolios. 5. Interest Rates: Central banks may respond to economic pressures, which in turn affects bond yields and borrowing costs. In light of these considerations, a new trade skirmish signals a time for prudence and agility in wealth strategy. For the upper middle-class, staying informed, maintaining a state of prepared decision-making flexibility, and seeking expert wealth strategy advice could well be the buffer needed to navigate the uncertainty ahead. #GlobalEconomy #TradeWar #WealthStrategy #USChinaRelations #PortfolioManagement Eric Tan Wealth Management Specialist IBF Advanced (Level 3) Source: https://lnkd.in/gYsvfVW3
Sr Economist ING | Transport & Logistics | Mobility | Automotive | Ports | Shipping | Aviation | Public transport | Energy transition | Research | Outlook | Strategy
Current global #trade imbalances (countries with large created surpluses like China and large deficits like the US and UK) frustrates a system that benefits from comparative advantages. Relevant views for discussions in World Trade Organization in the paper below. Creating walls (of tariffs) isn't the solution, also as trade should support the #energytransition. Read our piece in this regard here: https://lnkd.in/ersr6fGx https://lnkd.in/e5UYaSa3
MONEY TALK ~ With the Nigerian government's recent decisions and the ongoing challenges in global trade, understanding the broader economic landscape is crucial. Stay ahead of the curve by exploring our latest analysis at https://lnkd.in/dwkNyjd6 #GlaziaNow #moneytalk #globaltrade
The timing of US tariffs on Chinese EVs and Solar panels is political, but they also signal a significant shift in the Global Economy as Globalisation rapidly unravels. The reality is that China's competitive advantage is actually in automation, network effects, an integrated supply chain and a huge home market, which means that pretending it is about cheap labour and subsidies achieves nothing other than punishing consumers. Europe in particular can't compete with China because its energy costs are too high thanks to US led tariffs on Russia and the madness of net zero policies and US pressure to match these new tariffs threatens to seriously unbalance the unity of the EU - already troubled by populist push back against the key Globalist policies of open borders and net zero. Perhaps most important though is that a US economy that has successfully cut its import dependency is one that has every incentive to talk down the $. More at Market Thinking and also the mobile friendly marketthinker substack. Car Crash (market-thinking.com)
Donald Trump’s recent win in the US presidential election could point to trade policy uncertainty, including higher tariffs, which are broadly negative for emerging markets, especially those with global exposure. Within Asia, we expect that markets or companies that are more focused on domestic growth will be favored. India, for example, is more muted from tariff threats. Meanwhile, within China, while messages from the government to support economic growth is clear, the market needs a stronger stance on policy announcements and implementation. Access our latest multi-asset views here: https://bit.ly/3ZaSGqe Follow us on LinkedIn and get the latest news and investment insights. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💡 Know more about Value Partners: bit.ly/3AIa8FX 🔎 Facebook: bit.ly/3mjfFLB 🔎 YouTube: bit.ly/valuepartners4236 🔎 Subscribe to our e-newsletter: bit.ly/3AGDDI6 #valuepartners #mutualfunds #investments #assetmanagement #wealthmanagement - Investment involves risk. The above information is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer or an invitation to subscribe any securities, or a recommendation in relation to any securities.