Levent Özen’s Post

This is the webinar that will set out (quite briefly - it's only 30 minutes) all four our election scenarios: the politics of each, the associated macro forecast, and the political-economic risk aspects. Join us! (Or register and watch the recording later)

We invite you to join us on 17 May for our webinar - Four Scenarios for the South African Elections! During this webinar, we will discuss the policy implications, macroeconomic consequences, and political-economic risks associated with each of these scenarios, as well as a fourth scenario in which the Democratic Alliance's liberal coalition wins a majority. CLICK HERE TO REGISTER: https://okt.to/hPD4WH #ANC #EFF #DA #elections #SouthAfrica #politics

NEW RESEARCH REPORT: Prospects For Somalia’s Transition From Clan-Based Politics To Multipartyism In The 2026 Election This joint SPA & Rift Valley Institute study authored by Farhan Isak Yusuf explores the possibilities of Somalia’s transition from a clan-based system of the allocation of political authority to multipartyism. Read the full report here

🇸🇳💬 The Senegalese political landscape is evolving with the uncertainty linked to the upcoming transition and potential candidates for the February 25 presidential election. 🤔🗳️ What are your predictions for the political future of Senegal? #Senegal #Politics #Transition #Presidential

Half of the population is voting, and 2024, Is perhaps 'the' election year. Across every region of the world, democracy is being challenged and elections are no guarantee of Democracy. International IDEA teams under the supervision of Kevin Casas-Zamora Massimo Tommasoli and Seema Shah bring us “The Global State of Democracy 2023” report that gives us insights into the new checks and balances that democratic governments currently face. They use four main categories to judge global democracies: Representation, Rights, Rule of Law, and Participation. Within this report, you'll find responses corresponding to: ⚠️What countries and regions are experiencing the biggest decline in democracy? ⤵️ Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mauritius and Tunisia; Europe: Belarus; Americas: El Salvador and Nicaragua; Asia and the Pacific: Afghanistan and Myanmar ✅What countries are experiencing the most significant improvement in democracy? ⤵️ Africa: Ethiopia;  Europe: Armenia and Moldova;  Asia and the Pacific: Malaysia and Maldives. 🕵️The role of Countervailing Institutions in democracy integrity. ⤵️ The countervailing institutions play an important role in ensuring democracy continues to be of and by the people, as the authors outline it: "The people must be sovereign." 💡What can be done to address the threats to democracy?  Check the report here: https://lnkd.in/dZZNAEg7

📢 New Blog Post Alert! 📢 Delve into the complexities of Venezuela's political landscape with our latest article on the Venezuelan election controversy. María Corina Machado's claims about electoral fraud in favor of Nicolás Maduro are under scrutiny in our in-depth analysis. Key points covered: - Scrutinizing the reliability of Machado's evidence - Understanding the historical context of electoral manipulation in Venezuela - Exploring the impact of disqualification in political processes - Examining challenges related to exit polls and independent data verification - Debating international intervention versus domestic responsibility in ensuring electoral integrity and democracy. Join the conversation on #Venezuela, #ElectionIntegrity, #PoliticalAnalysis, #MaríaCorinaMachado, #NicolásMaduro, #Democracy. Read the full post now!

In my latest op-ed, I discuss how President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s re-election with 94% of the vote was a landslide, but the alarmingly low voter turnout reveals deep public disillusionment. With only a quarter of eligible voters participating, this victory raises questions about the legitimacy and effectiveness of the electoral process. Tebboune’s second term comes at a time when Algeria faces severe economic challenges, geopolitical tensions, and a militarized political landscape. The real test will be translating electoral success into meaningful reforms, addressing economic fragility, and balancing security concerns with genuine democratic engagement. Read more below. https://bit.ly/47vLPdB

Turkey's recent local elections have profound implications for the country's democracy. The results highlight the importance of opposition parties in combating illiberal practices and exemplify how to peel back a populist's power. Read my recent contributions in Topics #1 and #3 in this week's National Interest Foundation newsletter.

It’s sad to read in the V-Dem Institute’s Democracy Report (2024): “Democracy Winning and Losing at the Ballot” that Sierra Leone is listed among sub-Sahara African countries currently in ongoing episodes of autocratization. Simply, we are listed in the “grey zone” regimes of democratization, indicating the country is leaning towards the higher bound electoral autocracy from electoral democracy. We are unfortunately listed in this category largely because specific aspects of election integrity were undermined during the 2023 general elections, notably, free and fair election-indicator, EMB autonomy, government-sponsored/inspired intimidation against opposition, election-related violence, and systematic voting irregularities. In other words, we registered substantial and statistically significant decline in the V-Dem “Clean Elections” Index!😭 The decline is a stark reminder of how we must work on reforming the ECSL to resist incumbent manipulation and deter electoral fraud. The quality of elections and EMB autonomy and capacity are intrinsically linked.

On September 10, #Jordanians will go to the polls to elect the kingdom’s twentieth parliament. The election will be held in the shadow of the #Gaza war and is the first to take place under the plan formulated by the 2021 Royal Committee to Modernize the Political System. As Institute expert Ghaith al-Omari describes, the election was envisioned as showcasing the seriousness of #Jordan’s political modernization. #middleeast #mideast #analysis #foreignpolicy #policy