Gary Lerhaupt’s Post

One of the (many) highlights of the jam-packed FCEV/EV Charging/AV/V2G tour of the Bay Area with Tim Echols Cory Hewett and K.C. Boyce this past Monday — was the two rides in Waymo AVs. Living in the Bay Area, I've seen hundreds of Waymo cars traversing the streets of San Francisco the last few years — but until Monday, I had never ridden in one. I became a convert. Everything about the Waymo vehicle and ride experience was impressive. As a passenger, I immediately felt relaxed in the Waymo and never felt uncomfortable. The Waymo vehicle is incredibly safe and conservative, and is a much more preferable experience to riding in an Uber/Lyft vehicle with human drivers. My favorite moment was when the Waymo AV showed a bit of passive-aggressive, human-like behavior. We were at an intersection and going to turn left, with a car arriving right after us on the opposite side of the intersection. The Waymo inched out into the intersection to signal to the other car that it wasn't just going to wait for it, but would proceed somewhat aggressively. It felt very much like how a human driver would behave. While we did not experience any issues with the Waymo rides, there remain some challenges. The Waymo's are geo-fenced and can't even go into some areas of San Francisco, nor drive on freeways. But more importantly to me, while I can take a Waymo to a BART station in San Francisco, I can't take one home to my house in the suburbs. The Waymo vehicles also struggle in certain situations such as those when a vehicle blocks a side street, requiring Waymo human intervention to tell the AV what to do. And while we didn't experience it, according to a San Francisco Chronicle article, Waymo AVs are very conservative on where they will pick you up, and you may have to walk some distance to where the Waymo will safely pick you up — obviously a different experience from that of a human ride-share driver. Though that said, I've had frequent issues with Lyft drivers going to the wrong area at a BART station, for example, and then cancelling on me. While it will be many, many years before AV services like Waymo are operating in dozens and dozens of major US cities, my Waymo experience convinced me that AV ride-sharing services are clearly coming in the not-too-distant future — at least in selected, geo-fenced cities. But it may be a long time before these services will pick you up in a city, and take you home out in the suburbs. And yes, we also rode in a Cybertruck. I preferred the Waymo.

Mike Pierce and I were walking around the Castro earlier. We're used to seeing Google's Waymo self-driving robotaxis driving around town. They've been on our streets for months. Often they were driving around empty during their testing phase when you had to be on a controlled waitlist to get access to the app and be a customer. But not today. Every single Waymo robotaxi we saw drive by had passengers in it. And we saw many. It's clear that since opening up the service to anyone, ridership is up. At one point, per Waymo there were 300,000 people on the waitlist. San Francisco doesn't even have a million people in it. That portends a big demand. No one knows if self-driving robotaxis are the future or not. All things considered, I'd guess yes and suggest anyone who makes a full- or part-time living driving for Uber or Lyft in San Francisco, Phoenix, or any market in which robotaxis ramp up deployment, start making plans for new work sometime in the future. Cruise (GM) will undoubtedly re-enter the market. Zoox (Amazon) is getting ready to deploy their self-driving robotaxis. Tesla says they're going heavy into robotaxis but I doubt they'll succeed unless Musk steps away from the company. There will be other companies who want a piece of this market. Chinese companies are already licensing self-driving robotaxis in some of their markets and if those companies ever get a foothold in the US, they'll be formidable too. The first iPhone was introduced in 2007. That's just 17 years ago. Once new technologies reach a certain momentum, they sometimes take over a market quickly. It's anyone's guess if this one will, but I think it prudent to assume that it might.

Waymo grew from 100K rides per week to 150K rides in two months. At 7.8M rides per year this is nothing compared to the 10B rides Uber provides. But here is the catch, Uber's costs are more or less fixed. Google's are going to come down exponentially. The cost for an AI team will go down very fast if expressed per ride. Given no drivers are needed and vehicle costs are coming down as well, it is just a matter of scaling up for Google to steal away clients from first Uber but afterwards also public transport, second car ownership and finally first car ownership. In 2025, Waymo can easily go to 1 or multiple millions of rides per month. 2026, 10-50M and in 2027, 1B per month. Giving that Tesla will want to launch in 2025 and scale in 2026, consumers will be the big winners. https://lnkd.in/e4rcAH6D

My first riderless experience (thank you Waymo)! Some thoughts: - It feels like the future and I am certain that many parents will use this service to send their kids to school. - I waited 9 minutes for the Waymo to arrive. Uber was showing 3 minutes. I assume more cars (and competition) will be hitting the streets soon, and that gap will narrow. - It took 18 minutes to arrive home from my location. This was probably 4 minutes slower than a normal car. Waymo is a conservative driver. Maybe that improves in the future, but maybe the expectation is that you get a more comfortable driving experience, but your ride will take longer. - The price was $19. Uber would have been $12. Waymo is still in closed beta, and I am sure that gap will close in the future. But today, Uber is more efficient and less expensive.

I rode in a DRIVERLESS Waymo car for the first time this week. My live thoughts from the backseat........ ✍🏼 It is a TRIP to get into a car with NO ONE in the driver seat, feel it pull away, see the steering wheel move, and know that your safety is entirely in the hands of a machine. This is a MASTER CLASS in promoting psychological feelings of safety. The female voice is warm and funny. There's day spa music and a "pull over" button. See what the robot sees in real-time: cars, pedestrians, bikes, street lights. My lizard brain says "I am safe." This is the most cautious driver you know. But it’s not different than the other drivers on the road. This isn’t a student driver. Just unrushed. It over-signals. It signals when it thinks it MIGHT want to get over. Most LA drivers signal ONLY AFTER they’re 42% into your lane. It’s kind of annoying that it obeys all the rules, but also, I get it. Probably adds 10% to the drive time. I am ALONE and this is QUIET. Last week, an Uber driver listened to loud Tiktok-style videos in Farsi(?) for 45 minutes. I mostly didn’t care, but what if I needed to take a call? I’m approaching the end of the trip, and my mind starts to calculate the cost. This ride cost me $19, whereas an Uber would have cost $23 + $4 tip. Waymo didn’t even ask for a tip. So $19 instead of $27. That’s ~30% less. I made it home! Completely safe. I have no fear of the driver knowing where I live. I don’t usually care about this, but I bet many women do. Final assessment? I would do this again, 10 out of 10. And this is just the first generation. Like riding in an original 2007 iPhone. 📱 Follow-up: when I got home, I told my wife that it felt like A GHOST was driving, and she did NOT like that analogy AT ALL. 👻

A few weeks ago, I rode in a driverless car, and it wasn’t the experience I expected. 🚘 Surprisingly, I felt completely safe. I was in San Francisco and needed a ride, so I started to book an Uber. “Dad, let me sort it,” my son interjected and opened a ride-order app on his phone. What happened next took me by surprise. Instead of the Uber I expected, a Jaguar I-Pace drove up with my son’s initials on LED display of its roof dome and empty seats. A Waymo taxi with no driver! This is a reality in San Fran – where Waymo has been offering a commercial service with its AI-powered self-driving cars since last year. I was naturally wary of taking the ride, but once in the car, I was surprised how safe we felt. This is thanks to the inspiring blend of innovation, strategy, and caution Waymo has struck to revolutionize the cab industry. Other companies can learn important lessons about incorporating AI into their own business models. 👇 ➡️ Acknowledge that AI can and will make mistakes and design accordingly. Waymo is realistic about the fact that AI is not yet perfect. This is why each of its vehicles is monitored by a remote overseer, in case it needs additional situation-specific guidance. ➡️ Innovate to provide better service while cutting costs, but never at the expense of user safety (or satisfaction). While Tesla’s self-driving cars still require drivers in each vehicle for safety, Waymo realized there was a better and more economically viable option. Remote overseers can effectively monitor several cars at once. Over time, as the software learns, the need for them will diminish. ➡️ Don’t only focus on the tech. In anticipation of problems caused by unpredictable events like fires or crashes, Waymo has provided training to thousands of first responders to interact with its vehicles if needed. This includes the use of geofences as well as first responders being able to interact with the remote overseer. A PR catastrophe early on would have likely crashed the company and ensured no one stepped in one of their cabs ever again. So, Waymo is a fantastic example of a business that has innovated quickly while simultaneously taking a measured and strategic approach. This is a sweet spot in which we should all be looking to exist. #leadership #digitaltransformation #CIO #CTO #AI #Cloud

I can hear him now, Peter Gabriel singing Steam, “All of those cars were once just a dream in somebody's head…” Well, SFO, they’re not just a dream any more. They’re real and they’re ready to rock. Waymo, Alphabet’s self-driving car unit, is open for business to all y’all. It used to be limited to #trustedtesters but I guess you’re all trusted now. Just download the app and you’ll be ready to go. Now, this doesn’t mean that there’s not some controversy, some resistance. Not everyone’s on board. There was that incident recently where a crowd of revelers took out their animus and pretty much destroyed a helpless Waymo vehicle. And not too long ago a robotaxi hit a telephone pole. But persistence has its rewards (where’s my Apple car?). Waymo (Alphabet Inc.) ((Google)) has been at this for a long time. Since 2009 to be precise. Think of the challenges they’ve encountered. 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁; developing self-driving technology from the ground up is no easy feat. 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗛𝘂𝗿𝗱𝗹𝗲𝘀; imagine the hoops that local, state and federal pedants have made them jump through. 𝗣𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰 𝗦𝗸𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗺; admit it, you’ve been doubting they could pull it off. 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲; think about it, it’s no small list: Tesla, Uber, Cruise, Aurora, Argo, Zoox. Slowly but surely, one car at a time, one street at a time, one hurdle at a time, Waymo has simply gone about its business. What’s the magic behind these cars? Need you ask? #AI. It answers all these questions. 𝗡𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (what’s my route?) 𝗢𝗯𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗗𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (is that a pedestrian?) 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 (time to change lanes?) 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 (are they merging?). The proof is in the pudding however, or should I say, it’s time to see the rubber hit the road. What’s the over/under on self-driving being as common as your garden variety Uber or Lyft? I’m saying five years. #discoverthefuture

How many new robotaxis are available in LA? WayMo 😎 Waymo's finally letting loose in Los Angeles. They just opened up access, dropping that massive waitlist of 300,000 people. Quite the show. This is their biggest rollout yet, making L.A. the third city to get full robotaxi service, right after San Francisco and Phoenix. Now, what’s fueling this rapid expansion? A hefty $5.6 billion funding round back in October didn’t hurt. And it’s showing up in the numbers. Waymo’s now clocking over 150,000 paid rides a week across its cities, up from 100,000 back in August. So, if you're in L.A., you can just fire up the Waymo One app and hail a ride. Welcome to the future. https://lnkd.in/ebWmTX48

I was skeptical about driverless cars. Until now. I cannot believe what I experienced this week! 🚗🤖🧠 Having taken a Heathrow Pod to the terminal earlier this week, I expected more of what I had been driven in at Terminal 5. A space age looking bubble that took you on a predefined route from A to B. Nothing more. 🛣️ But the Waymo driverless experience was like nothing I expected. It felt real! I was a bit concerned when the car firstly pulled up and then immediately drove off without me. It turned out that it needed to park up at the right space, and was correcting its own mistake. The AI assistant that guides riders through the process felt quite dystopian and new, certainly more revolutionary than anything Apple has released in the last 5 years. Yes it felt weird. Yes it felt safe. No, it didn't go super slow Yes it dropped me off at the right destination! But, what strangely impressed me the most was how 'human' the ride felt in terms of how smooth the drive was and the seamless autonomous decision making. There were no sudden stops, no jerky lane merges and no points in the journey where I felt that this was a work in progress. After a while, I had completely forgotten I was in a driverless car. The occasional glance up to the empty seat and possessed looking steering wheel were the only reminders I had. This technology can and will have profound effects to drivers, riders and the entire motor industry. The likes of Uber and Lyft could - if they can access this technology - find huge margin uplifts. But, as usual, we await regulation to catch up with reality. Whilst Waymo has become an increasingly prominent service in places like San Francisco and Phoenix, and DeepRoute.ai becoming popular in cities like Shenzen, this technology still feels light years away from the rest of the world -largely due to governments stifling innovation. If you're ever in a city that has this service, I definitely encourage you to try it out! I did wonder what would happen if the police tried to pull over one of these things though! 🤣 🚓

As of today, I have officially traveled more than 150 miles via Waymo. For those of you who don't know, Waymo is a self-driving car, or what I lovingly refer to as "my robot car." During those 150 miles, I've experienced excitement, confusion, monotony, and (only once so far) frustration. More often than not, my Waymo transport is delightfully boring, and I zone out listening to Classical music or I call my sister to chat. (Something I love doing because I would never talk on the phone in an Uber or Lyft.) Very rarely have I experienced any nervousness or anxiety. I've traveled during the daytime, after dark, and during rainstorms, and there have been a few times where my Waymo has had to avoid unexpected human activity, doing so amazingly well. I've chatted with many people about this experience, and I've been told, "I would never do that, I don't trust it," "Maybe I'll try it when it's more common," "Don't you feel sorta trapped?" and "You are taking away jobs from people." Every time you get into a vehicle, you are accepting some sort of risk. I've had some really splendid Uber and Lyft drivers/rides in my life, but I have had more "holding on for dear life" moments than I would prefer. Humans can be very impatient, and although some may find Waymo's propensity for overly cautious driving annoying... I LOVE IT. Honestly, Waymo drives how I drive. I don't speed, I give cyclists plenty of room, and I follow all traffic laws to a ridiculous level. It's how I've been since I first got my license; I was not a cool teenager. As for taking jobs away from people… I guess I am. But couldn’t the same be said of me choosing to ride my bike or walk? Or picking up a food order versus choosing to have it delivered? And I think these sorts of growing pains have been created with every technological and human advancement. People don’t painstakingly place every letter into a printing press anymore, humanity no longer needs a switchboard operator to connect your long-distance phone calls, and... maybe you aren’t aware of this, but before the advent of the modern bowling lane, people were employed to reset the bowling pins by hand once they’d been knocked over. Whether you see this as I do or not, that is okay :) I am not trying to convince anyone of anything. I just want to express my exuberance for what Waymo is doing. And I want to say thank you! Thanks for giving me a way to comfortably get around the city when it's too dreary to bike or walk. Thanks for teaching it to drive like the patient and cautious 65-year-old driving instructor who taught me to drive back in the nineties. Thanks for the quick responses from live support when the Waymo has occasionally encountered a hiccup and thanks for daring to do something that people might see as crazy. Because crazy can also be AWESOME! Waymo