Lawrence S.’s Post

𝑹𝒖𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒂’𝒔 𝑶𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒉𝒏𝒊𝒌 𝑴𝒊𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒍𝒆 - 𝑯𝒚𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒐𝒏𝒊𝒄 𝑻𝒉𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕, 𝑲𝒊𝒏𝒆𝒕𝒊𝒄 𝑾𝒂𝒓𝒇𝒂𝒓𝒆, 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑺𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒈𝒊𝒄 𝑬𝒔𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒊𝒏 𝑮𝒍𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒍 𝑮𝒆𝒐𝒑𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝑻𝒆𝒏𝒔𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔 Hidden Capabilities: Some believe the Oreshnik is capable of deploying an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) that could disable electronics over a wide area. Although there is no confirmed evidence of this capability, the rumors persist. Putin has indicated that the Oreshnik will soon enter mass production, which would place Russia in a strengthened position both strategically and operationally. #emp #ukraineconflict

How to keep the #LightsOn in Ukraine this winter? Ukraine's power system made it through two successive winters since Russia’s invasion, despite military attacks on its energy infrastructure. As DTEK CEO Maxim Timchenko said at #PowerSummit24, Ukraine's resilience is well represented by boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk: he could win against bigger opponents as "He was more creative, faster and had a bigger heart" 👉 https://lnkd.in/ef5ZP-Gt However, this winter is going to be a more difficult match, as Ukraine is experiencing a severe electricity deficit. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s latest report, peak demand could increase to 18.5 GW this winter. Even with the return of nuclear units from maintenance over the summer, and the continued import of 1.7 GW of electricity from Ukraine’s European neighbours, the supply deficit could reach as much as 6 GW (equivalent to peak annual demand in Denmark!) 👉 https://lnkd.in/e-22FhgX The case of Ukraine is showing Europe that in a world where #energysecurity can't be taken for granted, we need to rethink the concept of #securityofsupply and the risks that can jeopardise it. Learn more from our latest project and stay tuned for more updates: https://lnkd.in/eCRg6eQD

It s not Ukraine It is us hoping to create a scenario where we can retaliate with tactical nukes. They want Putin gone and Ukraine ifs falling. Just a matter of time before Ukraine is finished and we have no other avenue to attack Russia. Pretty obvious Zelensky is not dictating the targets. He does not have the ability or capacity to respond to the response Russia is preparing. Putin’s response to this attack can only be matched by a NATO directed and managed response. Biden administration is running out of time. Based on the polls it looks like they have to get this done by Nov. maybe as late as the third week in Jan. The timing of this is directly related to the US elections. Not sure everyone in NATO is buying into the US and Ukrainian solution to this conflict.

How strategically successful were Ukraine's drone attacks on the Russian oil sector? Sergey Vakulenko, nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, assesses the impacts of these attacks in this new explainer. Watch here:

Russia switches ICBM to conventional warhead this time, but who knows what type of warhead the next Russian ICBM is, very concerning. https://lnkd.in/geMG-s96

Beyond the clickbait of the alleged Russian ASAT, this is a good discussion on Taiwan's ambitions for low-earth orbit. If you're a subscriber to my briefing-letter, you will know that there are some serious concerns regarding Taiwan's satellites. Note: I did a recorded interview (yet-to-be aired) for Taiwan Talks that discusses this issue, but I noticed they took a clip from that interview about the alleged nuclear ASAT. I am hoping they air my interview as I do talk about the vulnerability to Taiwan's satellites. #taiwan #spacelaw

Sharing a new piece that sheds light on Ukraine's emerging asymmetric strategy. The article explores how conventional and unconventional war can be combined to create a new type of multidomain approach. Check out the article here: https://lnkd.in/eF9k8DbZ

There is an urgent need for open discussion around Russia’s grey zone hybrid behaviour. In the latest revelation, a United Nations Agency accused Russia of using Kaliningrad as one of its bases to disrupt European satellites. This has led to interrupted television and radio broadcasts, including violent content replacing programming on a children’s channel. Russia should “immediately cease any deliberate action to cause harmful interference to frequency assignments of other administrations,” the International Telecommunications Union’s Radio Regulations Board said Monday. Russia has also been repeatedly accused of jamming GPS signals that interfere with commercial air traffic. Several Allied governments have also claimed Russian links to a recent spate of deliberately-set fires to sensitive sites in Europe. #HybridAttack #GreyZone Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) NATO Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum (JFCBS) JFC Naples (NATO)

While the 1967 treaty critically prohibits the deployment of weapons of mass destruction in outer space, it does not prohibit the launch of ballistic missiles through space. It also does not prohibit the placement of non-nuclear weapons in space. In short, the treaty does not prevent all forms of escalation, and it leaves many issues unaddressed, particularly in the age of new weapons and cyber technologies. The unwillingness of the signatory parties to develop their space capacities exclusively for “peaceful purposes”, as stipulated in the treaty, has set a precedent for accepting militarised space use, which continues today. https://lnkd.in/eHwVR4mu #outerspace #security

China can monitor US maritime and space efforts from Cuba: “Satellite imagery and open-source information assessed by CSIS offers an unprecedented look at four active sites in Cuba capable of conducting electronic surveillance operations.” Perhaps these sites can more than surveil…