Lars Jensen’s Post

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Very sharp increases in Drewry’s WCI spot rates this week. All Asia-Europe and Transpacific trades increase between 16-20% compared to last week. This equals some 600-700 USD/FFE increase There is market talk about a strong surge in demand, but all solid demand data is lagged hence no solid evidence for this. Capacity remains down for Asia-Europe due to Red Sea disruptions, but not for Transpacific. Keep in mind that port congestion in key hubs not located specifically within the Red Sea area also plays a role in this. Atlantic is still holding firm, whereas the backhaul from Europe to Asia keeps declining.

Here is a new prespective on this subject , so all is not lost by just having to depend on the giants . Quote Shipping Firm Slashes Delivery Times Through Suez Canal, Offers Expedited Cargo Transit Unquote Quote numerous vessels continue to traverse the waterway. This steadfast navigation is chiefly propelled by the imperative of expedited shipping, prioritizing the swift delivery of goods to their intended destinations. Unquote Don't be surprised if you find a news ,that this company that offers this has been bought out and goes under the sands .

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Sir are we comming back to the orginal argument I started Quote Asia-Europe Container Trade Surging as Forwarders Warn of Capacity Crisis and Soaring Freight Rates Unquote This is artificially done ,reducing vessels idling them in some cheap port , creating artificial scarcity ,create panic , create a peak season that never was , Jack up freight and OCC AND PEAK SEASON SURCHARGE , making exceptional profits to the shipping lines like Maersk... who in my opinion started this all per reports they have slipped to no 3 in vessel capacity , and as per there CEO reports of lower vessel capacity . Other Lines will follow suit and they will have a merry party at the end of the year laughing all the way to the bank.

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If you look at US port data for 1Q, there is certainly a surge in the Asia - US market

Kim Huay Sandra Goh

Procurement Mgr at Apollo Tyres

7mo

Yes, indeed I’m experiencing min 15% rates increase for intra-Asia lanes, 20% Asia - Europe. Could be China golden wk backlog n panic shipping due to ME. I suppose this is transitional n shouldn’t last for too long? Any comments/views?

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Paul Buttari

Director of Logistics , Cellmark

7mo

how long do you think this will continue Lars ? this fairly sudden increase in volume and rates seemed to catch some of the carriers i have been speaking to by surprise a bit.

mark shand

Managing Director at RGR Logistics Asia Pte Ltd

7mo

Ex Singapore from 2nd half May, if you can get space via SPOT the rates are about USD 2000-3000 more than end April. CMA quote - just pay the SPGO on top of the increased freight and you may get space and by the way the SPGO is now 3000 per 40ft.......

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Quote “A cocktail of continued sustained capacity demand, blank sailing programmes and a full-year outlook that offers no positive outlook on the crisis in the Red Sea has sent ocean freight rates on a rapid upward trajectory,” it said. Unquote

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Camilo Palacios

Director of Ocean Product - North America

7mo

Hi Lars. How would one go about analyzing if there is an overall increase in demand? As you mention most demand data is lagged. This definitely feels true in practice and we see it in our bookings, but have no macro data to back it up. What would be your suggestion? Any providers specializing on this?

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Seham Lewis

Supply Chain | NPI | Projects | USAF Veteran

7mo

Like a butterfly effect…

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