Kenneth Toh’s Post

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Senior Director at Indosuez Wealth Management

S&P affirms France at AA-/Stable - sigh of relief. France's parliament has so far failed to approve legislation underpinning the 2025 budget, increasing the probability that the government will have to pass the budget via article 49:3 of the constitution. Marine Le Pen’s far-right party is threatening to bring down the government if her demands on the budget are not met, which include blocking electricity tax increases and raising state pensions. Deadline for the budget bill is December 21st and the minority government from Michel Barnier is under pressure. Despite ongoing political uncertainty, S&P still expect France to comply with the EU fiscal framework and to gradually consolidate public finances over the medium term. Yield on France's 10Y OAT eased to around 2.9%, the lowest level since mid-October. That leaves the 10Y Greece/France yield spread only about 1 bp. But the risk premium over German Bunds is still as wide as 80 bps.

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