Justin Orenduff’s Post

#26 Chicago Cubs: The Top 3 Pitchers Drafted Since 2013 From 2014 to 2019, the Chicago Cubs averaged 97 wins per season, made the playoffs every year, and won the World Series in 2016, while utilizing an average of 26.25 pitchers per season. Since 2021, the Cubs have averaged just 77 wins per season, have not returned to the playoffs, and have used an average of 32.5 pitchers each year. While many factors influence team success, data on the Cubs' pitching prospects drafted since 2013 reveals concerning trends: high injury rates, early attrition, and minimal impact at the MLB level, especially from future starting pitchers expected to provide long-term stability. Injury Rate: 39% 39% of pitchers in this case study have experienced arm injuries or surgeries—15 arm injuries and 9 surgeries, with an average time to surgery of just 154 innings. Notably, Cade Horton and Jaxon Wiggins underwent Tommy John surgery prior to the draft and are not included in the count of 9 surgeries. Since the 2019 draft, Michael McAvene, Burl Carraway, Drew Gray, and Nazier Mule have all had arm surgeries before reaching 100 professional innings pitched. MLB Pitchers: 7 The following pitchers have reached the MLB level: Justin Steele (2014), Tyson Miller (2016), Cory Abbott (2017), Brendon Little (2017), Ethan Roberts (2018), Luke Little (2020), and Jordan Wicks (2021). Notably, Justin Steele accounts for 77% of the total MLB innings pitched by these prospects. Total MLB Innings Pitched (MLB IP): 615 Justin Steele stands out as the Cubs' best success story from this case study. After elbow surgery in 2017, Steele has thrown 477 MLB innings, emerging as a reliable top-three starter when healthy. Jordan Wicks has also shown promise as a potential top-three starter, pitching 67 MLB innings before an oblique injury in 2024. Luke Little emerged as a valuable reliever in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, though he missed half of 2024 with a shoulder injury. Cost Efficiency – $/MLB IP: $56,194 The Cubs' initial investment in signing bonuses has averaged $56,194 per MLB inning pitched, ranking 24th in return on investment across MLB teams. Like many organizations in this case study, the Chicago Cubs exemplify the ongoing struggle to develop quality starting pitchers from their top three draft picks since 2013—pitchers who could provide consistent value and stability at the MLB level.

All Star Snubs??? Over the weekend, the reserves and pitchers were named for the 2024 MLB All-Star Game, which will be held July 16 at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The starters were named last week.  As is the case every year, it’s disheartening to see deserving players left off the All-Star team, often referred to as ‘snubs.' One snub that stood out to me was the Arizona Diamondbacks First Baseman, Christian Walker, who left off the team. Walker is having an impressive season with 22 home runs and more than 60 RBIs and helped lead the DBacks to the World Series in 2023. Last week, the D-Backs were in LA to play the Dodgers, and Walker put on a clinic, much like he did in the ’23 playoffs, hitting five home runs in the three-game series. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts called him “Babe Ruth against us.” But apparently, the Babe wasn’t good enough. Part of the problem is that every team must have at least one all-star representative, a rule designed to ensure every team is represented, but which can sometimes leave one less slot for other deserving players. Ironically, this year’s NL All-Star manager is the D-Backs manager Torey Lovullo, Walker’s manager. But Lovullo clearly couldn’t pull the strings for one of his guys. As we mentioned earlier, this year’s team includes 19 players under the age of 27, but what about older players like Walker, now 33 and in his 10th MLB season?  A shame. John Boxley Box-seats.com

#29 Houston Astros: The Top 3 Pitchers Drafted Since 2013 The Houston Astros have been a model of consistency in Major League Baseball (MLB) for nearly a decade, largely due to the depth and value they’ve received from their starting rotation. However, what may come as a surprise is that the Astros rank in the bottom tier when developing their top 3 drafted pitchers each year, as revealed in this ongoing case study. Key rotation members like Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy were all acquired from outside the Astros' farm system—either through trades or as undrafted free agents. This raises an interesting point: the role and impact of undrafted free agents in combination with this study. Lance McCullers, despite his contributions to the MLB Team over the years, narrowly missed inclusion in the study, having been drafted in 2012. Injury Rate: 21% The Astros have one of the best/lowest injury rates at 21%. Of the 32 pitchers studied, 7 suffered arm injuries, resulting in 5 surgeries, with an average of 233 innings pitched before surgery. Notably, no major arm injuries have occurred since Blair Henley underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022. Other notable surgeries include Riley Ferrell (2015), Forrest Whitley (2016), and Corbin Martin (2017). MLB Pitchers: 7 Out of the top 3 drafted pitchers since 2013, 7 have reached the majors: Kent Emanuel, Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin, Tyler Ivey, Hunter Brown, and Blair Henley. Hunter Brown alone has accounted for 86% of the 431 total MLB innings pitched by these pitchers. Cost Efficiency – $/MLB IP: $82,063 The Astros’ investment in signing bonuses has resulted in an expenditure of $82,063 per MLB inning pitched—ranking last in return on investment. Pitchers like Mark Appel, Riley Ferrell, Forrest Whitley, and J.B. Bukauskas received over $14 million in bonuses but have combined for just 0.2 innings pitched for Houston. Trading Away Talent Like the Mets, the Astros have frequently traded away their top pitching prospects (10 trades involving top arms). Major trades included Mark Appel, who received a $6.3M bonus but was traded to Philadelphia in 2015 for Ken Giles, and J.B. Bukauskas, traded in 2019 for Zack Greinke after receiving a $3.6M bonus. These moves likely impacted both the number of pitchers reaching the majors and the total innings pitched. Final Takeaway Despite their remarkable success, much of the Astros’ rotation strength has come from outside the organization or through the development of undrafted free agents. The success of Hunter Brown is a bright spot, but as a whole, the Astros have yet to fully capitalize on the potential of their top pitching prospects in the same way they've done with acquisitions and trades. This case study explores the decline of traditional starting pitchers and assesses how effectively each MLB organization develops its top pitching prospects. #PitchingDevelopment #MLB #Astros #CaseStudy

New Post: White Sox slash next year’s season-ticket prices amid one of the worst seasons in MLB history - https://lnkd.in/gxM9QSUu The Chicago White Sox announced big season-ticket price cuts on Wednesday. Then just hours later, Yankees captain Aaron Judge hit his historic 300th career home run against them. When the Yankees won 10-2, it marked Chicago's 93rd loss of the season. With 93 losses halfway through August, the White Sox are entering coveted territory with the worst teams in baseball history. Currently, the White Sox are on pace to finish 38-124. If they did, that would beat the 1962 New York Mets – the first year of the team's existence – for the most losses in a single season. This comes after a 101-loss season in 2023.CLICK HERE FOR MORE SPORTS COVERAGE ON FOXNEWS.COM Ky Bush of the White Sox pitches against the New York Yankees at Guaranteed Rate Field on Aug. 12, 2024, in Chicago. ( Matt Dirksen/Getty Images)And so, attendance has struggled. The team has the fourth-lowest average attendance in the majors this year at 18,307 per game, which is down from 21,405 last year. And now, the team's senior vice president and chief revenue and marketing officer, Brooks Boyer, admits they simply have to cut prices for season-ticket holders next year. AARON JUDGE MAKES REMARKABLE MLB HISTORY WITH 300TH HOME RUN"It’s going to be a little bit different, understanding what has transpired here overall the last couple of years," Boyer told reporters on Wednesday. "After looking at that, understanding where we are organizationally, we thought it was important that it’s something we do for our season-ticket holders who have been very loyal to us."The team's failings resulted in the firing of manager Pedro Grifol, who was replaced with interim manager Grady Sizemore. Fans who spent the money to see the team possibly win a series against the first-place Yankees on Wednesday night got to see Sizemore make the decision to intentionally walk Juan Soto to set up Judge with two men on in a 6-2 game. Judge made them all pay for Sizemore's decision, belting his 300th career home run to extend the Yankees' lead to 9-2. Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees hits a single in the seventh inning against the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on Aug. 13, 2024, in Chicago. (Quinn Harris/Getty Images)CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPChicago was officially eliminated from winning the American League Central after Tuesday's loss, mathematically clinching more losses than the first-place Cleveland Guardians. This means that even if the Guardians were to lose every game for the next month and a half until the end of the season and the White Sox won every game, then Chicago would still have more losses. Realistically speaking though, Chicago is on pace to finish 59 games out of first place, which actually would not be the most in a season. That rec

With 34% of Major League Baseball (MLB) starting pitchers on the injured list and 18% on the 60-day injured list, the door is wide open for young starting pitchers in the minor leagues. This surge in injuries creates an unprecedented opportunity for aspiring pitchers to get called up and make their mark in the major leagues. However, the youngest generation of starting pitchers often can't stay healthy once called up, perpetuating the cycle of injuries. Currently, eleven MLB teams have three or more starting pitchers on the injured list, with the Miami Marlins facing the most severe challenge, with an astounding seven pitchers sidelined. Interestingly, 43% of starting pitchers in Major League Baseball are pitching for the team that initially drafted or signed them. While it's unclear if 43% is high, low, or standard, what is evident is that more pitchers at the MLB level are being used to meet innings demands, highlighting the gradual decline in the traditional starting pitcher role. It raises the question: what are minor league development departments doing? Developing quality starting pitchers seems to be a significant challenge. Outside of a few organizations that have proven successful since 2012, most minor league development departments act more as "player facilitation" rather than true "player development." Expanding the size of player facilitation departments isn't the answer. The solution lies in shifting goals and leadership to truly develop talent. On a positive note, some teams are making strides. The Philadelphia Phillies who led in mitigating pitching injuries last season, continue to excel. The Tigers are showing signs of reducing injuries, and organizations like the Mariners, Royals, Pirates, Astros, and Cleveland are successfully elevating pitchers from within their organizations. #startingpitchers #mlb #playerdevelopment

Relative to injuries to baseball pitchers, Pedro Martinez, whom I consider to be one of the most intelligent athletes ever, made some subtle points that no one else has made in the assessment of why so many pitchers are getting injured. Martinez makes two points I have not seen elsewhere, one of which is not surprising to me. First, he says that players do heavy weight workouts, which overdevelops certain muscles, but fails to help them develop the parts of the body that need strengthening. Second, he argues that strengthening and protecting ligaments is vital. Neither of these approaches to conditioning are being done today. Young men overvalue weight training and rapid muscle strength build-up and undervalue muscular flexibility, balance, and gradually building up strength. Martinez also believes that MLB teams rush pitchers to the Major Leagues before they have been grounded in the fundamentals of how to manage their pitching workload. In this article, Justin Verlander, a future Hall of Fame pitcher, commented that when the baseball was altered to make it easier for players to hit home runs, the philosophy of letting batters put the ball into play to get quicker outs was challenged. Batted balls that used to be outs were becoming home runs or long extra base hits. Pitchers responded by focusing more on strikeouts and throwing the ball far harder. As for the argument that the pitch clock is primarily responsible, I have to question that. Games were shorter several decades ago and pitchers pitched more rapidly. In fact, some of the pitchers who took almost no time between pitches had long careers. For example, Ron Guidry of the Yankees, who threw the ball very hard, was not troubled with arm injuries. There are many more examples of fast-working pitchers.

Incompetence comes in two basic forms: (1) Conscious Incompetence and (2) Unconscious Incompetent. Which is worse? Well, that depends. For example, if the consciously incompetent person seeks to improve their situation via education to become more competent (less incompetent) then it is obviously better to be consciously aware than unconsciously unaware of their competence level. However, sometimes we find people who in their position of authority practice "Arrogant Incompetence" - that is knowing, they are incompetent, but having no desire to affect the needed changes to improve the situation at-hand be it in baseball or any profession. Personally, I find this worse. You be the judge: you know your boss is an idiot, so does he and yet he laughs off your competence in improving the process. Yes, I've been there.

#25 The Texas Rangers: Top 3 Pitchers Drafted Since 2013 The Texas Rangers Baseball Club won the World Series in 2023, establishing a foundation of leadership under Chris Young and Bruce Bochy. Although 2024 was a down year, this was expected due to Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer missing significant time in 2023 and 2024. Their injuries provided opportunities for prospects like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, and Owen White. However, as this case study shows, 10 pitchers have reached the majors, but over 50% have experienced arm injuries along the way, and as of yet, no pitcher has become a consistent top 3 MLB starter. Injury Rate: 51% 51% of pitchers in this study faced an arm injury or surgery, totaling 19 injuries and 10 surgeries, with an average time to surgery of 205 innings. Chi Chi Gonzalez (2013) and Brett Martin (2014) reached the majors, averaging 662 innings before surgery. However, 12 of the 14 pitchers drafted from 2016-2020 experienced arm injuries, with 8 requiring surgery, and the average time to surgery fell to just 73 innings. This period coincided with the implementation of a progressive throwing program for the Rangers' top pitching prospects. Whether or not this program remains, its injury impact was significant. MLB Pitchers: 10 The 10 pitchers in this study have combined for 639 MLB innings, led by Brett Martin (189 innings) and Cole Ragans (136 innings), who are no longer with the organization. The Rangers still have 17 active pitchers, including Cody Bradford (132 IP), Jack Leiter (35 IP), and Owen White (7 IP), who could contribute more value in the future. Kumar Rocker has also added 11 innings to the total, but this was after the final results were compiled. Cost Efficiency – $/MLB IP: $68,735 The Rangers' investment in signing bonuses equates to roughly $68,735 per MLB inning pitched, placing them 28th in MLB return on investment. The Rangers, like many teams, have yet to develop a homegrown quality starter. However, the future could be different with the potential rise of Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, or Brock Porter. 

#24 San Diego Padres: The Top 3 Pitchers Drafted Since 2013 Heading into the 2024 Major League Baseball (MLB) season, the Padres ranked 21st in total wins (636) since 2013, while leading the league in days missed by injured pitchers (10,791) and ranking 13th in payroll spent on injured players (10.05%). Among their recent pitching prospects, Adam Mazur, drafted in 2022, made a brief appearance for the team during the 2024 season before being traded to the Miami Marlins alongside fellow 2022 draftee Robby Snelling. This trend of trading away top pitching prospects extends beyond Mazur and Snelling. The Padres have consistently moved high-profile arms like Eric Lauer (2016), Cal Quantrill (2016), MacKenzie Gore (2017), Ryan Weathers (2018), Justin Lange (2020), and Cole Wilcox (2020) in deals aimed at bolstering their Major League roster for short-term success. Collectively, these pitchers received $27 million in signing bonuses yet combined for only 578 MLB innings with the Padres. As they aim to advance past the Dodgers into the NLCS, the Padres' starting rotation consists entirely of pitchers acquired from outside the organization. Injury Rate: 19% With a 19% injury rate, the San Diego Padres have the lowest rate in the current case study. The organization has recorded eight arm injuries and five arm surgeries among their pitchers, with an average of 197 innings pitched before surgery was required. Notably, Dylan Lesko, the 14th overall pick in 2022, and Kannon Kemp (2023) both suffered major arm injuries shortly after being drafted, underscoring the ongoing risks faced by MLB teams from the 2019 draft onward. MLB Pitchers: 6 Six pitchers from this case study have reached the Major Leagues with the Padres: Jacob Nix (2015), Eric Lauer (2016), Cal Quantrill (2016), MacKenzie Gore (2017), Ryan Weathers (2018), and Adam Mazur (2022). Together, they have thrown a total of 726 innings for the Padres. However, none of these pitchers remain active on the team's roster. Cost Efficiency – $68,653 per MLB Inning The Padres' investment in signing bonuses has amounted to nearly $68,653 per MLB inning pitched, placing them 27th in terms of return on investment for innings pitched across the league. While the organization has drafted highly talented arms with significant long-term potential, especially for the starting rotation, the frequent trades have limited the opportunity to develop any of these pitchers into top-tier starters.  Consequently, the high volume of trades has diminished the potential impact these prospects could have made for the Padres. #padres #Top3