Demographic Shifts and Projected Growth in Tasmania Abstract: Tasmania’s demographic landscape is poised for gradual population growth yet faces a unique set of challenges due to an aging population and a projected decline in natural increase. This study, informed by data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the Tasmanian Department of Treasury and Finance, uses a heatmap to visualize key demographic indicators, illustrating how Tasmania’s population dynamics are likely to change between 2023 and 2053. This analysis underscores the need for strategic planning and policy adjustments to attract young migrants and maintain economic stability. Introduction: As of June 2023, Tasmania’s population reached 573,156. While growth is projected to continue estimated to reach 641,045 by 2053 the pace of this increase is expected to slow considerably. This research visualizes demographic changes over time, focusing on projected shifts in population growth rate, natural increase, and median age, highlighting the anticipated reliance on migration to counterbalance an aging demographic. A heatmap visualization illustrates these trends to guide policy decisions and ensure Tasmania’s sustainable development. Methodology: Population data and projections were sourced from the ABS and the Tasmanian Department of Treasury and Finance. A heatmap was created to present changes in three demographic indicators from 2023 to 2053: 1. Population Growth: Trends in the overall population count. 2. Growth Rate: Projected natural increase rates, reflecting births vs. deaths. 3. Median Age: Anticipated rise, highlighting the aging trend. The heatmap uses a gradient from light to dark, indicating lower to higher values in each category, with clear delineations to emphasize shifts over time. Results: The heatmap highlights Tasmania’s demographic changes: • Population Growth: Tasmania’s population is expected to grow slowly over the coming decades, with a projected increase from 573,156 in 2023 to 641,045 by 2053. • Growth Rate: Starting in 2032, Tasmania’s growth rate is expected to decline as deaths are projected to exceed births, underscoring the need for net migration to maintain population levels. • Median Age: With the median age rising from 41.9 years in 2023 to an estimated 48.8 years by 2053, Tasmania’s demographic profile will reflect a significantly older population, impacting workforce dynamics and healthcare needs. References: • Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2023). Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2023. • Tasmanian Department of Treasury and Finance. (2023). Population Projections for Tasmania and its Local Government Areas.
Julius Dabreo - Buyers Agent’s Post
More Relevant Posts
-
*We can’t understand the world without understanding demographic change.* One of the most anticipated data updates for social geographers and demographers was released last week by the United Nations. It's called the 2024 World Population Prospects. Some key highlights from this report are: 1. The UN now projects that the global population will peak in the early 2080s at around 10.3 billion people. 2. The global population is expected to peak, then decline, by the end of the century, largely due to a sustained, long-term decline in fertility rates worldwide. 3. In many countries, fertility rates are now below the “replacement rate”, the rate at which population size remains constant from generation to generation. This is around 2.1 children per woman in developed countries and slightly higher in lower-income ones. 4. The world has already passed “peak child”: The year when the global number of children reached its highest level. The world reached this peak for under-5s in 2017 and under-15s in 2021. 5. The world has now recovered from a drop in global life expectancy in 2020 due to COVID-19. 6. China's population has peaked and is now declining due to low fertility rates over a long period of time. From a hazards perspective these numbers matter because it's the lens through which we explore geohazard exposure and potential risks. In the long term, changing populations mean different numbers and demographic groups will be exposed to natural hazards such as earthquakes. If we want ensure effective disaster risk reduction measures are in place for today and for tomorrow we need to understand demographic change.
To view or add a comment, sign in
-
this graph was created in R animated: population and other key findings from the 2024 UN World Population Prospects. We can’t understand the world without understanding demographic change. How many people are alive today? How many are born; how many die? What do we expect populations to look like in the future? The United Nations updates its big dataset — the World Population Prospects — every two years to answer these questions. It just released its latest edition today. We’ve updated all of our population-related datasets and charts with this new release. You can explore all the trends for every country in our Population and Demography Data Explorer. In this article, we wanted to provide key insights from this latest wave of data. The world population is projected to peak slightly earlier than in previous projections The United Nations doesn’t only publish historical estimates of how population and demographic trends have changed in the past; it also makes projections for what the future might look like. To be clear, these are projections, not predictions of changes in the future. In its 2022 publication, the UN estimated that, in its medium scenario, the global population would peak in 2086 at around 10.4 billion people. This year’s edition brings this peak forward slightly to 2084, with the population topping at just under 10.3 billion. The chart below compares the two revisions. This isn’t the first time the projected peak has been pulled earlier. According to its 2019 edition, the global population would reach 10.9 billion by 2100 and keep growing. The 2022 revision was the first to project a peak in the 21st century. Not every country has seen a drop in projected population compared to the last edition. The chart below shows the differences between the two UN revisions, region by region. Note that the vertical axis scale for each region is different, allowing you to see the changes more clearly. The latest UN revision has downgraded its future population estimates in Asia, Africa, and Latin America but increased its projections for Europe and North America. SOURCE IS BELOW: 1. https://lnkd.in/dCq-pFjZ 2. https://lnkd.in/drKvDUgx 3. https://lnkd.in/dZzkYdKF.
To view or add a comment, sign in
-
INTRO Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, has experienced significant demographic shifts over the years. This article delves into a project that analyzes Nigeria's population trends from 2006 to 2019, extracting valuable insights and trends from the data. Data Collection and Preparation: The first step in this project was to gather reliable population data spanning from 2006 to 2019. Sources such as national census reports, publications and demographic surveys were utilized. The data got cleaned and structured to ensure accuracy and consistency, ready for analysis in Power BI. Dashboard Overview: The Power BI dashboard presents a comprehensive overview of Nigeria's population dynamics over the specified period. It includes various visualizations such as line charts, bar graphs, and geographic maps to facilitate a deep understanding of the trends. Key Insights Derived: 1. Population Growth Trend: The dashboard showcases Nigeria's population growth trend from 2006 to 2019, highlighting annual growth rates and identifying periods of accelerated or decelerated growth. This insight is crucial for understanding the country's demographic landscape and planning future infrastructure and services. 2. Age Distribution: A detailed breakdown of age groups within Nigeria's population provides insights into demographic shifts. Visualizations such as age pyramids reveal changes in population structure, such as aging populations or youth bulges, which have implications for healthcare, education, and employment policies. 3. Urbanization Rate: Analyzing urban versus rural population trends uncovers the pace of urbanization in Nigeria. The dashboard illustrates the percentage of the population residing in urban areas over time, aiding in urban planning, resource allocation, and addressing infrastructure challenges in growing cities. 4. Regional Disparities: Geographic maps and regional breakdowns highlight population distribution across Nigeria's states and regions. This insight helps identify disparities in population density, urban-rural divides and variations guiding targeted development strategies and resource allocation. 5. Population Projections: Utilizing historical data, the dashboard generates population projections for future years. These projections are essential for policymakers, businesses, and organizations to anticipate population trends, plan services, and tailor strategies to meet evolving demographic needs. Impact/Decision-Making: Insights derived from this project have significant implications for decision-making and policy formulation in various sectors. Governments can use the data to plan healthcare infrastructure, education systems, housing projects, and social welfare programs effectively. Businesses can leverage insights for market targets, product development, and expansion strategies tailored to different population segments. Many thanks to Labano Academy and Israel Afolabi for the opportunity to gain this knowledge.
To view or add a comment, sign in
-
🚀 Read Our Latest Insight: Next Generation Funds: Correcting the Population Pyramid We’re excited to share our latest article that delves into the fascinating shifts in global demographics and their economic implications. 🌍 From a soaring global population of 8 billion to declining fertility rates, we’re witnessing unprecedented changes in our demographic landscape. 👵🧓 The surge in the 65+ age group and its impact on the economy, particularly in high-income countries, is a trend that can’t be ignored. 💡 Our article proposes innovative solutions like “Next Generation Funds” to counteract these trends and pave the way for a sustainable future. Join us in this important conversation. Let’s explore how we can adapt to these demographic shifts for a prosperous future. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/g4wQgSjP #WaldoowManagementReview #DemographicShift #EconomicImpact #NextGenFunds #PopulationPyramid #PopulationGrowth
Next Generation Funds: Correcting the Population Pyramid
https://wmr.waldoow.com
To view or add a comment, sign in
-
Our World in Data Peak global population and other key findings from the 2024 UN World Population Prospects Falling fertility rates, migration movements, and China’s population decline. July 11, 2024 We can’t understand the world without understanding demographic change. How many people are alive today? How many are born; how many die? What do we expect populations to look like in the future? The United Nations updates its big dataset — the World Population Prospects — every two years to answer these questions. It just released its latest edition today. We’ve updated all of our population-related datasets and charts with this new release. You can explore all the trends for every country in our Population and Demography Data Explorer. In this article, we wanted to provide key insights from this latest wave of data. ( More: https://lnkd.in/dby4UchQ )
Peak global population and other key findings from the 2024 UN World Population Prospects
ourworldindata.org
To view or add a comment, sign in
-
Namibia Surpasses Australia in Population Density, Shifting Global Rankings: Nrupesh Soni This week, the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) unveiled census results revealing an unforeseen population count of 3,022,401, marking a pivotal moment as Namibia overtakes Australia in population density. This development repositions Namibia from the second to the third least densely populated country in the world, trailing behind Mongolia and Australia. The calculations conducted by the Facilit8 Namibia reveal that Namibia’s population density now stands at approximately 3.66 people per square kilometer. This figure slightly exceeds Australia’s density of about 3.46 people per square kilometer, highlighting the subtle yet significant demographic shifts occurring worldwide. These shifts hold extensive implications for resource management, urban planning, and environmental conservation on a global scale. This remarkable increase in population density in Namibia is attributed to several factors, including advancements in healthcare, political stability, and gradual economic growth. Together, these factors have contributed to a lower mortality rate and a consistent population increase, reflecting a broader global trend where improved healthcare and economic conditions foster population growth in regions historically characterized by vast, uninhabited landscapes. The Namibia Statistics Agency’s recent census figures, verified and analyzed by Facilit8 Namibia, offer a fresh perspective on the country’s demographic landscape. As Namibia confronts the challenges and opportunities presented by its increased population density, it becomes a focal point for similar nations worldwide, exemplifying the dynamic nature of population distribution and its impact on both national and international scales. In the past 15 years, Namibia’s population has nearly doubled, intensifying the pressure on its education system and healthcare services—two sectors critical to the nation’s sustainable development. The education system, already facing challenges such as inadequate infrastructure and limited resources, now requires substantial investment to meet the growing demand for quality education. Similarly, the healthcare system, despite making significant strides in improving access and reducing disease prevalence, must expand its services to cater to the increased population, ensuring the maintenance of healthcare quality. Looking forward, Namibia’s strategy to address the implications of rapid population growth involves comprehensive planning and investment in education and healthcare. These investments are crucial not only for enhancing the quality of life but also for developing a skilled workforce capable of driving economic innovation and diversification. However, without targeted efforts to tackle these issues, there is a risk of exacerbating inequalities and overburdening social services, which could…
Namibia Surpasses Australia in Population Density, Shifting Global Rankings – Windhoek Observer
observer24.com.na
To view or add a comment, sign in
-
As Africa’s Population Crosses 1.5 Billion, The Demographic Window Is Opening; Getting The Dividend Requires More Time And Stronger Effort On the World Population Day yesterday, the United Nations’ Population Division released the 28th edition of official World Population Prospects (WPP) and forecast. It is a rich repository of population estimates from 1950 to the present for 192 countries or areas of analyses of historical demographic trends and of projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and national levels. Unsurprisingly, the world’s population has witnessed a tremendous growth in the last six decades. Global population was around 3 billion in 1960. In just two decades (by 1982), it had surpassed 5 billion and since November 2022 there are more than 8 billion people in the world. Africa has been at the center of this population growth – accounting for the largest relative growth, its population has expanded from 283 million in 1960 to more than 1.5 billion in 2024 – a more than five-fold increase – and is projected to increase by 950 million and touch 2.5 billion by 2050. This 63 percent increase in population will increase Africa’s share in the world’s population from the 10 percent in 1960 to 28 percent by 2050. Globally, more than 1 in 4 people will be African in 2050, from 1 in 11 in 1960. Of the eight countries that will account for more than half of the global population growth between now and 2050, five of them are in Africa: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and the United Republic of Tanzania. Read more 👉 https://lnkd.in/en9gs6bt Saurabh Sinha, Chief of Social Policy Section, ECA Melat Getachew, Consultant #populationgrowth #population #growth #Africa #Demographic #demographicdividend #WorldPopulationDay
(Blog) As Africa’s Population Crosses 1.5 Billion, The Demographic Window Is Opening; Getting The Dividend Requires More Time And Stronger Effort
uneca.org
To view or add a comment, sign in
-
World population set to peak decades sooner than previously projected #bne #bneEditorsPicks #demographics The global population is projected to grow by more than 2bn people over the next few decades, peaking at approximately 10.3bn in the 2080s before declining to around 10.2bn by the end of the century, according to a new United Nations report. The World Population Prospects 2024 report, published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) on World Population Day, attributes the earlier-than-anticipated peak to lower fertility levels in some of the world's largest countries, notably China. China's population is expected to fall dramatically from 1.4bn in 2024 to just 633mn by 2100.
World population set to peak decades sooner than previously projected
intellinews.com
To view or add a comment, sign in
-
The dataset contains population data for various cities in 2024 and 2023, along with their growth rates. It has the following columns: - **City**: Name of the city. - **Country**: Country where the city is located. - **Continent**: Continent where the city is located. - **Population (2024)**: The projected population of the city in 2024. - **Population (2023)**: The population of the city in 2023. - **Growth Rate**: The population growth rate between 2023 and 2024. Would you like an analysis of the fastest-growing cities, a geographical comparison, or a different visualization of this data? Let me know how you'd like to proceed! The **Average Growth Rate by Continent** bar chart provides a clear visual comparison of population growth rates across continents. Each bar represents a continent, and the height of the bar corresponds to its average population growth rate. - **Africa** has the tallest bar, indicating the highest growth rate among all continents. This reflects rapid population expansion across many African countries. - **Asia** follows with a significant growth rate, though it's lower than Africa’s. This region includes both rapidly growing populations in South Asia and more stagnant or declining growth in East Asia. - **Oceania** shows a moderate growth rate, which varies across countries within the continent, with some smaller Pacific nations experiencing faster growth compared to larger countries like Australia. - **South America** and **North America** have similar growth rates, indicating a slower but steady population increase, with immigration contributing significantly in North America. - **Europe** has the lowest growth rate, near zero, suggesting that many European countries have either stabilized populations or are experiencing population decline due to aging populations and lower birth rates. Overall, the chart highlights a strong contrast in growth patterns between continents, with Africa experiencing a population boom, moderate growth in the Americas and Oceania, and minimal or negative growth in Europe. This variation underscores regional differences in birth rates, aging demographics, and migration trends.
To view or add a comment, sign in
Founder and Chief Growth Strategist | Real Estate Agent
1moGreat insight