Jonathan Fisher’s Post

The potential for #uranium mining to add value in WA is extraordinary and can be developed independent of any state election outcome: 1. Diversify WA govt revenues away from iron ore 2. Replace jobs lost in nickel, lithium and iron ore 3. Play an important role in global decarbonisation; helping our most important trading partners. 4. Protect all West Australians standard of living The WA electoral situation is also fascinating: A. Premier Cook remains relatively likeable; unlike Albanese; but less popular than previous Premier McGowan. His shadow still looms large. B. The upcoming WA state election will be Premier Cook’s first time contesting an election as the Premier; as it will be Libby Mettam’s first election as Liberal leader. C. Traditional election theory says federal elections are decided on federal issues; and State elections are relatively independent. D. However, many of the federal issues poisoning Albo and Federal Labor are also resonating at State level –the Regis Resources project cancellation by Plibersek, reunionisation of the Pilbara, federal EPA changes, and energy policy. E. Labor worries about losing its Left to the Greens. But now – the calculation must be – what about those on the Right – mining employees who have lost their jobs? A change in uranium policy to allow mining would be a balance between the Left and the Right. All these issues are explained by Cauldron CEO Jonathan Fisher at the recent WA Mining Club Lunch: see https://lnkd.in/gY_vGK-F Please give Cauldron Energy Limited or our CEO Jonathan Fisher a follow here to keep up to date with all the interesting news from the Uranium industry and the potential for WA to become a world leader in the uranium export sector!

A new mine's permit blocked by the South African government - responsible governance, or bad judgement? I have no idea which of the two it is, despite being steeped in these issues - and it just shows how tricky and complex the issues around opening new mines are. On the one hand, iron ore is an essential commodity to make steel which makes modern life and the energy transition possible, and its supply needs to grow. The mine would bring thousands of well-paid full and part time jobs and huge economic opportunity in a country with the highest unemployment rate in the world (and where youth unemployment is estimated to be over 70%), and where there are very serious issues relating to the capacity of and corruption in government bodies. On the other hand - and going only by the public reporting as I have no privileged information whatsoever - there are unanswered questions around if / how any increased risk of flooding in nearby areas would be managed, the impact on groundwater quality and quantity in an already water-stressed area, and whether all steps have been taken to minimise the disruption to people's ways of life, including their spiritual connections to land. If we assume that all parties are acting in good faith (and that is a big IF), then these are legitimate questions that need clear answers. I think by now, most people recognise that mining is essential and has many positive impacts. But let's not forget that while those benefits can be global, regional and local, the negative impacts are almost always local, always personal. So it is understandable that near neighbors to a mine will want to know that a mine has done everything possible to avoid or minimise any negative impacts - irrespective of the benefits it brings. When we talk about growing mining by 500% or such to meet the material needs of the energy transition, it also means growing our willingness and ability as a whole society to work through these challenging issues with those affected. No one should take advantage of this situation, either by railroading concerns on the one hand or creating dubious and spurious objections on the other. We all lose if we fall victim to our worst instincts, and now is the time to find each other.

🛠️ Expanding Domestic Mining: A Bipartisan Priority We recently teamed up with Candid Counsel to conduct a survey that highlights a powerful bipartisan agreement: 83% of Opinion Leaders—including 71% of Democrats and 95% of Republicans—believe expanding domestic mining should be a top or important priority for President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration. Critical minerals are the backbone of modern technologies, energy production and economic growth. Prioritizing domestic mining offers a clear path to strengthening national security, driving innovation and reducing dependence on foreign resources. 📢 Explore the full survey results and their implications for U.S. policy in our latest blog post: https://lnkd.in/eD-yVKZm Now more than ever, both sides of the aisle have a shared opportunity to champion a sustainable and secure future.

The Government of Western Australia will offer royalty relief to the crucial nickel industry, supporting thousands of local jobs as well as the State’s vision of becoming a global battery minerals processing hub. The WA nickel industry has experienced challenging global market conditions in recent times, which have prompted mine and processing plant suspensions, and significantly impacted jobs. With nickel being an essential raw materials for battery manufacturing the rebate will assist in re-building the industry’s strength. Premier Rodger Cook said, “The nickel industry supported almost 10,000 jobs, and generated sales of more than $5 billion last financial year.” Here is a bit more color: a) Asset write-downs - https://lnkd.in/eq9T-7FQ Glencore b) Nickel / Production - https://lnkd.in/euzbmknr BHP c) EV / Angus - https://lnkd.in/ejAiVyAp d) EV affordability - https://lnkd.in/eXW6g4JN e) Lithium alternative - https://lnkd.in/e5cq_Kqm Microsoft and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Indeed, Chinese processors have benefited from investment in Australian spodumene operations because they were the ones who proved up how to process this material to compete with Latin American salars. This is called "first mover advantage". Now that Chinese capital is unwelcome they have done two things: 1. they proved up how to process formerly worthless lepidolite ores within China 2. they are (presently) proving up high-Mg ratio direct lithium extraction in Chile and Bolivia China is pretty much "over" investing in Australia. Chinese capital is going to Indonesia, Africa and Latin America. For the record, for those who are cock-a-hoop to see the back of China in Australian critical minerals, I have bad news for you. Let's suppose that we sell no lithium to China, but only to the USA and Europe. Q: How much would the Australian industry grow off the back of that splendid opportunity? A: It would not grow at all. It would shrink by about 80%, or more, to meet the lower levels of US and EU demand. That is because demand for that quarter is about 10% of market and we presently account for 50% of world output. Australians are terribly excited about critical minerals investment. If you study the market, who actually buys the stuff, we have likely hit "peak" critical minerals already. That is because our official policy is to "just say no" to the biggest buyer. We did this to please the same idiots who will bankrupt our armed forces by selling us nuclear submarines to go punish China for being there. China will just go on investing, elsewhere, and likely grow their global market share while our own market share shrinks and journalists bemoan Evil China.

With all the hype about minerals, the need for and scarcity of, any one of us must surely have been tempted to look into trading commodities futures. But I hope you didn't. Turns out the dollar vote still counts for something (despite every effort to the contrary by whoever the heck is driving the climate hysteria). "Mines around the world are ceasing operations or halting construction projects in response to the falling demand, such as a $1.3 billion plant in North Carolina operated by Albemarle. which announced that it was deferring spending on the project amid the market turmoil, according to the WSJ The total market share of EVs rose from 3.1% in January 2023 to 3.6% in December 2023, while the share of U.S. vehicle inventory grew from 2.8% to 5.7% in that same time frame as demand fails to keep up with supply." Courtesy of Will Kessler at The Daily Caller.

INSIGHT: "Why there's no silver bullet for the nickel pickle facing the Albanese government" 🇦🇺 Article includes 2 VIDEO CLIPS. When miners first struck nickel in Western Australia's dusty outback in the late 1960s, it kickstarted a rollercoaster ride that brought the likes of Harold Holt and Andrew Forrest to town. So exciting was the revelation of nickel in Kambalda, 60 kilometres south of Kalgoorlie, the prime minister came to town to join the party. "It is an important national asset," Mr Holt declared from the Goldfields mine site in 1967. Today it is seen as not only important but critical – due to its use in the batteries needed for the global energy transition.... #nickel #criticalminerals #batteries #evs #australia #energytransition TA RawMaterials: https://lnkd.in/d_Np2KpZ Article: https://lnkd.in/dRAtGa2z

THE GOLDEN GOOSE FOR AUSTRALIA JUST CAUGHT COVID! Australia Coal Price is at a current level of 124.90, down from 141.82 last month and down from 317.99 one year ago. This is a change of -11.93% from last month and -60.72% from one year ago. In financial year 2022, the total income of the coal mining industry in Australia amounted to approximately 105 billion Australian dollars. This reflected a significant increase from fiscal year 2021, which marked the highest value recorded during the reported period. Iron ore is Australia's largest and most valuable commodity export, with export earnings in 2021-2022 of $133 billion. Iron ore mining is estimated to directly employ over 43,000 Australians. ‘The ongoing steel excess capacity crisis is currently escalating,’ the OECD said in a review of the industry. The 57 million tonnes of new capacity added last year was the highest in a decade, despite actual sales of steel falling 2.5%. China accounted for just under half the new capacity while Chinese mills are also investing heavily in new capacity in ASEAN nations. see: As China’s housing market slumps, Australia’s iron ore budget bonanza is unlikely to last 2 Feb 2024|David Uren ASPI Australian Strategic policy Institute. The Chinese economy has imploded. that means they will need a lot less coal and iron ore, agricultural produce. Australia's economic prosperity has relied on the Chinese dragon for 30 years and they are now toast. Interest rates are an issue but asset values in China have tanked 40% to 60% and still falling. If that contagion does not impact Australia it would be a miracle! The direct impact will filter through to the Australian economy and will last many years. Only with austerity could Australia maintain it's current account balance. Australia must quickly replace Chinese demand with Indian, Mexican and South American markets or suffer a serious decline in revenues. The Chinese economic miracle is coming to an end and Australia is particularly exposed to a decline in commodity demand from them. https://lnkd.in/gqazYfDm

BHP shutting down their Australian Nickel mines is a rude awakening to how wrong I was. One of the long-term calls I got wrong was how dominant laterite-sourced nickel production would be. I assumed that because HPAL did not "work," laterites would not be a core source of cheap #nickel. I "knew" we would need nickel sulfides. I can take apart all the parts of my logic that I got wrong, the level of environmental damage that was going to be acceptable, the Chinese model of innovation, the ability for a market to change, thrifting of batteries metals, and changing chemistries. https://lnkd.in/gdVtJaAy

Rare earth prices have plummeted: 🔻 Due to massive overproduction by Chinese companies, together with the less than anticipated adoption of EV’s globally, the prices for rare earth minerals over the past 2 years have crashed. The dominance of CN in this sector has caused havoc for western companies. 🔻Cobalt has fallen from $13k per tonne to $5k 🔻Nickel has fallen from $7k per tonne to $4k 🔻Lithium has fallen from $80k per tonne to $13k This is a really interesting article for anyone interested in the mechanics (no pun intended) and indeed power plays associated with mining and refining of rare earth elements and the manufacture of electric vehicles. #rareearthelements #batterytechnology #batterymanufacturing #ev #china #lithium #cobalt #nickel