It happened way sooner than I predicted. Bootstrapper mindset is the new default: > small & efficient teams > organic growth & profitability > less features & more focus > pleasing the users instead of investors > automating is better than hiring This will happen next: Investors still want to own equity in these companies. - bootstrapped founders will be selling their equity instead of raising money for the startup - Someone who makes a marketplace for secondaries in bootstrapped (or VC backed, who don't plan to raise again) will make a huge upside. - The rev-share models will surge, too, where investors won't buy equity but a % of the revenue. - These secondaries will even turn into NFT-like tradable assets. - Indie Makers will sell rev-share of their entire output. Not the company, but them as an individual. Imagine owning 1% of rev share of everything that Marc Loe, Pieter Levels or other good makers produce (not for life, e.g. for 5 years). - VC money (unless u need to buy GPUs) will rather look negative on a startup than positive. YC will still be positive. It's not about the money, but rather a network and a "medal". - Startup incubators will collapse as a business model, except top 1%. Being on X brings 100x more value than any average incubator. - Holdcos will be the best new way to become rich. I see them as little monopolies that aren't illegal (for now). - Influencers will all ship lots of apps, sites, saas, marketplaces and other digital products (in addition to physical products, courses, events and things they did in the past). - the bar to build and ship tech product is so low, one need no coding skills at all with tools like V0, Bolt, Replit, Cursor. At first we will see simple products being shipped this way, but it complexity will grow as the models improve. - whitelabel model will have it's new renaissance. I bet on it myself. Have more than 10 partners working with me now to launch whitelabeled version of my tools to other markets or niches. Let's revisit this prediction in 20 months.
“Holdcos will be the best new way to become rich. I see them as little monopolies that aren’t illegal (for now)” Spot on Another thing to note. Companies will be a lot easier to start and scale. Owning (and managing) multiple companies at once will be the new norm.
Are you in a position, and interested, to invest for a rev share on new saas product ideas, or pre-revenue ideas with a functional prototype? Do you think there's a platform opportunity in building the tool for that? Angel list for SaaS DAOs
It’s always been since beginning of Silicon Valley.
*sigh* the future-telling market is oversaturated
Feels good to be early and prepared for this. Time to make some real money
I feel like the new wave of AI consultants will be people that will say.. use this for x, use this for x and this for x.
VC model breaks down in <5 years unless VCs can provide unparalleled distribution advantage or 10x liquidity (for those parties amirite)… brave new world, can’t wait. Also terrifying. What comes after foundational models?
Growth, will be in most cases slower. But also in most cases definitely worth it.
Marketer & amateur barista | Reformed agency founder | New Michigander and future All-Pro Midwesterner.
2moInteresting, and not too soon John Rush. But I wonder: you say the incubator model may die, which is fair. But what about a studio for first-time founders, which takes equity in return for 1) ideas of what to build (not the greatest value but lets face it, it can be a barrier) 2) managing all those additional functions and has a suite of automation, partnerships with the right SaaS etc. First time founders then focus on product and users. They also likely never have to raise again. This also fits those who may make great founders but fail to make the leap because of other responsibilities or may get bogged down in minutiae of running a business.