Jim Carmichael’s Post

In February, Logan Mohtashami shared that "Single-family rents are stabilizing and holding up well. However, apartments are having pricing issues, meaning more supply is coming online, which will halt production of many more apartments until the supply and demand equilibrium can stabilize." The most recent rental data from CoreLogic confirms the trend... we continue seeing annualized gains in rents, but "...these gains are being driven entirely by detached properties. Attached properties, including condominiums, posted a yearly rent-price decrease for a second straight month, backtracking by 0.5% in April." This is good news for the resi market and supports forecasting lowing inflation reports in coming months and quarters. Rents are the biggest deal for core inflation and as single-family rent growth tapers off we should see CPI start to cooperate. Also, while we're not pitting single-family against multifamily... its a positive for the single-family resi market to see SFR rents holding up in comparison to attached housing units. https://lnkd.in/gsjasaN5

Navigating the NYC Real Estate Landscape: As a homeowner or potential seller in New York City, staying informed about the current state of the housing market is essential for making sound decisions in 2024. The real estate scene in NYC remains resilient and diverse, presenting both challenges and opportunities for stakeholders across the board. Diverse Market Dynamics: NYC's housing market reflects the city's rich cultural tapestry, offering a wide array of options ranging from luxurious high-rises in Midtown Manhattan to historic brownstones in Brooklyn. This diversity not only attracts buyers and renters but also contributes to the complexity of the market. Price Trends: While some regions in New York state anticipate moderate increases in home prices, Manhattan's rental market is experiencing a significant shift. Despite previous peaks, rental prices are expected to decline due to increased inventory and evolving work models favoring remote and hybrid setups. Manhattan's Real Estate Boom: Manhattan stands out as a hotspot for real estate activity, witnessing a surge in demand and prices. With the median home sale price soaring to $2.0 million in January 2024, sellers are in a favorable position. However, the volume of property transactions has seen a significant decrease, signaling potential shifts in market dynamics. Strategic Investments: Investing in Manhattan real estate requires a strategic approach, with prime neighborhoods like Upper East Side, Upper West Side, Midtown East, SoHo, and Harlem offering promising opportunities. Understanding the diverse property types and market intricacies is crucial for investors seeking long-term gains. Tax Considerations and Incentives: Navigating New York's tax landscape is essential for investors, with property tax burdens varying based on factors such as property type. Exploring tax breaks and incentives can encourage investments in affordable housing, contributing to the city's overall housing landscape. Policy and Market Responses: Policymakers and market participants are actively addressing challenges through initiatives and innovations, ensuring the market remains dynamic and resilient amidst evolving trends and demands. Understanding the nuances of the NYC real estate market empowers homeowners, potential sellers, and investors to navigate its complexities with confidence. Whether you're exploring buying opportunities, selling your property, or seeking strategic investments, staying informed about market trends and leveraging available resources is key to success in the NYC real estate landscape.

🏙️ Realtor.com Says Multifamily Rents Spike in These Cities! 📈 🔍 Nationwide Overview: * Median asking rents across the nation dipped year over year in April, except for parts of the Midwest. 📉 Nashville Takes a Dive: * Rents for 0-2 bedroom apartments in Nashville plummeted by 8.4%. 🤠 Two Texas metros followed closely: Austin (-8.3%) and San Antonio (-8.1%). 🌴 Florida Feeling the Pinch: * Orlando (-5.9%), Miami (-4.3%), Jacksonville (-3%), and Tampa (-2.5%) experienced rent slumps. 🎉 Renters' Delight in the South: * Atlanta, Charlotte, and Baltimore saw rents drop by 5.6%, while Raleigh experienced a 5.3% decrease. * Memphis (-4.9%) and Richmond (-3%) also joined the trend. 🌇 Western Woes: * Phoenix led the losers with a 4.6% rent plunge, followed by San Francisco (-4.3%) and Las Vegas (-4%). 📊 National Trends: * Median asking rent for 0-2 bedroom units dropped by 0.7% from April 2023 to $1,916. * Rent declines have slowed, hovering just $33 below their peak in August 2022. 🏢 Studio & One-Bedroom Trends: * Studios saw the biggest hit with a 1.7% decrease to $1,443. * One-bedroom units experienced a 1.4% drop to $1,601. 🌟 Midwest on the Rise: * Some Midwestern cities witnessed rent climbs: Indianapolis (+4.5%), Milwaukee (+3.8%), and Minneapolis (+2.5%). * Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Chicago could see surges if the upward trend continues, facing affordability challenges. https://lnkd.in/gvERB63f

The attached SVN Multifamily State of the Market report indicates that 2023 saw the fewest apartment assets change hands nationally since 2011. Transaction volume was down 64.8%, and 2024 hasn't exactly started off with a big upswing just yet either. That being said, our SVN Avat Mulitifamily office is still closing alot of apartment deals. We had a strong 2023, selling deals from North Carolina and NE Tennessee to Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi, and we were #1 market leaders in North Alabama and the Knoxville area of Tennessee. As the attached article also indicates, due to a mix of shifting household preferences and a drop off in affordable access to home ownership, more Americans are renting now than at any point in history. According to The US Census Bureau, the number of occupied renter households increased by 514,000 in 2023. Remember, apartments as an asset class were by far the first to come back from the last recession in 2008, and it's because apartments as an asset class are a much safer investment than any other property type. All the units that are being delivered now will be absorbed over the next two years, and by the end of 2026 we will likely be starting to talk about a shortage of housing again and we will see large, market moving upswings in rent that no one is anticipating now because of an abundance of caution that has swept over the market. We see through the fog of uncertainty and see opportunities sprouting up across the Southeast. We see many assets that will become available to acquire that will appreciate over the next 3-5 years much faster than any other asset type, including cash. We look forward to helping all of our clients enjoy the massive benefits of property ownership this year and for many to come.

Is the rental market finally stabilizing? Let’s break down the implications for renters! Apartment rents have posted the largest annual increase in 18 months, rising 0.9% year-over-year to $1,645 in August. Still, they remain below their 2021 peak of $1,700.  -------- What does that tell us? -------- The multifamily market is stabilizing. 👉 Multifamily Supply Meets Demand  Building completions are at historic highs, pushing some landlords to lower rents and offer concessions. This is improving affordability in oversupplied areas.  👉 Affordability Gains With wages growing 3.8% year-over-year in August and rents stabilizing, renters are finding relief. Wage growth is outpacing rent hikes, making apartment living more affordable. For instance, 2-bedroom rents stayed flat at $1,725. 👉 Regional Trends  ➡ Austin saw a sharp 17.6% rent decrease, saving renters $317 per month.  ➡ Virginia Beach rents surged by 15.2%, highlighting regional differences across metros like D.C., Baltimore, and Chicago. -------- So, what’s next? -------- With construction slowing down, rents may stay stable, but regions with a backlog of new units will see continued balance in the market. For multifamily investors and developers, how will you leverage these trends in your strategies? P.S. Want to dive deeper into real estate trends? Follow A.CRE Consulting for more economic insights!

The U.S. rental market marked 14 consecutive months of falling rents, with median rents down 0.5% YoY as of September. While cities like Cincinnati lead with rent growth, Southern markets, such as Nashville, see declines due to new multifamily housing supply. This trend offers a window into shifting rental affordability and housing market adjustments post-pandemic. #RealEstate #RentalTrends #MultifamilyMarket #Aspire

The True Cost Of A Free Months Rent All Multifamily competes for tenants by giving concessions. The most common type of Concession is the Free Months rent. It is usually given in the 2nd month. While the free month Consession is attractive to all demographics. It's most attractive to lower income folks. Unfortunately that's where the biggest problem is. The lower income demographic is less financially secure. Within the demographic there are a) stable folks b) folks who try to be stable but have turbulent lives and employment, and c) folks who take advantage. Let's see the effect for a $1,200 month unit and what happens when we get the tenant takes advantage followed by a stable tenant. We collect a first months rent and a security deposit equal to a months rent. A total of $2,400. So far so good. Month 1 we have been paid. Month 2 is free. Month 4 we don't receive the rent. Month 5 we start eviction and in Month 7 they are evicted. We now have the stable tenant. They pay first months and a security deposit, another $2,400 Month 8 has been paid. Month 9 is free. Month 10-12 is paid for a total of $3.600. In 12 months we received $8,400 (2,400+2,400+3,600) In a low occupancy building where tenants are difficult to find, $8,400 is better nothing as long turnover is not expensive. However a $100/month discount consecution when paid on time is better.  Financially, its the same to the tenant . But, to the property its a significant advantage. Looking at the same scenario. We receive 1st month's rent and security deposit, a total of $2,300. Month 1 is paid. Month 2 we don't receive rent. Month 3 we don't receive the rent and start the eviction and month 6 they are evicted. We find the stable tenant. They pay the first months rent and a security deposit. A other $2,300 Month 7 they have paid. Month 8-12 is paid. A total of $4.400. For 12 months we received $9,000 (2,300+2,300+4,400) (If we had a stable tenant in the first place, there would be no cost difference between the "free month" and the $100 a month discount.) The advantages to the property: 1) The property is going to attract a more stable tenant. 2) The incentive discourages folks who want to take advantage as they prefer the "free month" properties. 3) The discount encourages the tenant to pay the rent on time. 4) The cash flow is better, during the free month, we don't have costs without income. 5) Every month the tenant sees on their invoice that $100 discount, so they the concession we provide them is reinforced.  6) And In the scenario above where we selected port tenants, we received $600 more, not a significant difference, but it does contribute to the cost of the turnover. The $100 discount is usually always more beneficial than the free months rent. The biggest lesson here is to look at the full cost of every incentive for the demographic you are marketing to. Don't just look at getting a "tenant". #RenaTalksMultifamily

It’s no secret that the multifamily industry is facing headwinds in many markets. A confluence of factors—slowing rent growth, rising expenses and an increase in apartment supply—are creating headaches for apartment owners and managers anxious to maintain monthly rents and keep occupancies high. It might be tempting to reduce rent to attract prospective residents, but this could have unintended consequences. Click the link below to see 4 Strategies for Attracting New Residents- without concessions and to see what our very own Ian Mattingly had to say in this Multi-Housing News Article. https://lnkd.in/gmxvbXJF

📈 Record Apartment Demand: A Deep Dive into Multifamily Market Dynamics In the current multifamily landscape, one bright spot shines unmistakably: the robust demand for apartments, which has propelled absorption rates to their highest in nearly a quarter-century. According to the latest report from RealPage Market Analytics, an impressive 390,000 units were leased on net over the past 12 months, marking the eighth-highest annual figure since 2000. This significant demand, particularly noted in the first half of 2024 where 257,000 units were absorbed, aligns closely with the all-time high set during the 2021 pandemic-era boom. Despite these strong absorption figures, much of the media's focus has been on the supply side, where a historical high in new deliveries has been keeping rent growth modest. Over the past year, more than 500,000 new market-rate apartments were introduced to the market—45% more than the previous year and the most since 1986. Looking ahead, an additional 629,000 units are expected next year. However, there are signs that the gap between demand and supply is beginning to close. National occupancy rates have stabilized at 94.2%, and while rent grew only 0.2% in the year ending June, the market appears to be balancing itself amid a significant wave of new supply. 🌍 Regional Highlights: South: Led the nation with 226,000 units absorbed, accounting for 60% of the country's total absorption. West: Saw its strongest performance in two years with 89,000 units absorbed. Northeast: Achieved a high occupancy of 95.8% and leased 30,500 units. Midwest: Also showed robust occupancy at 94.8%, with 44,100 units leased. 🏙️ Market-specific Observations: Growth Leaders: Kansas City topped the charts with a 3.8% rent increase. Other strong performers included Washington, DC, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee, all experiencing over 2.5% growth. Challenges: Austin saw the most significant rent decline, dropping 7.7%, with other cities like Jacksonville and Atlanta also facing downturns. #RealEstateInvestment #MultifamilyHousing #CommercialRealEstate #MarketTrends #RealEstateDevelopment https://lnkd.in/eZyZH6tb

Q3 2024 Real Estate: Where Meme Culture Meets Big Money Moves Commercial real estate in Q3 2024 was a mix of high-stakes plays and millennial-friendly vibes. Think New York’s “main character” energy, Miami’s real estate hot streak, and Texas’s dependable stability. Here’s the tea on the top markets—and why they’re worth your attention. New York: The Expensive Diva With $278.6B in property value across 52,530 assets, NYC is the Beyoncé of real estate—iconic but pricey. Multifamily turnover crawls at 1.4% (#), buildings are older than most boomers (1927 median), and taxes at 9.5% will hit your wallet hard. Still, the density (3.12 floor area ratio for multifamily) makes it irresistible to serious players. Miami: The Real Estate Glow-Up Miami is having a moment. Hospitality turnover is a jaw-dropping 8.3% by square footage, and with tax rates at a chill 2.2%, it’s basically the ultimate investment vacation. Whether you’re into quick flips or long-term ROI, this market is hotter than its beaches. Chicago vs. LA: Drama vs. Chill Chicago is that one friend with great potential but serious baggage—2.9% multifamily turnover, but a brutal 20.6% tax rate. LA, meanwhile, plays it cool with low taxes (1.3%), 54K properties, and steady hospitality growth (2.4%). No flash, just steady gains. Texas Forever: Your Reliable MVP Dallas and Houston are the markets you can always count on. Newer buildings (1984 median year) and low taxes (~2%) make them portfolio staples. Turnover is low (1.3%), but the growth is steady and predictable, just like you want from a long-term bet. Phoenix & D.C.: The Underrated Stars Phoenix is showing serious glow-up energy, with 4.8% multifamily turnover (SF) and younger properties (1984 median year). D.C. keeps it classy with a low multifamily tax rate (0.9%) and a thriving office sector (2.5% turnover). Both markets are stealthy winners. This past quarter’s data is clear: whether you’re chasing NYC’s density, Miami’s speed, or Texas’s stability, every market is making its move. The real question is: where will you make yours? Altus Group Reonomy #RealEstate #Q32024 #CRE #Investments #MarketTrends