Jeremy Law’s Post

I wrote my new book for two reasons: firstly, because the history of relations between Labour and the Liberal Democrats is both fascinating and little understood, and secondly, because the arrival of a Labour government in July 2024 means that this issue is now highly topical. Our story starts in 1903, when the Labour Party had literally a handful of MPs, and when the Liberals and Unionists (Conservatives) were the two dominant parties. In this year, the Liberal leadership entered into a secret pact with Ramsay MacDonald, then a leader of the Labour Representation Committee (soon to become the Labour Party). The pact involved the Liberals agreeing to give the LRC an unopposed run in around 30 seats. Some Liberals thought the pact was insanely risky – one warning that they were ‘nursing into life a serpent’ that would ‘sting’ their party to death. But the background to the pact was that the Liberal Party had been largely out of power for two decades and had fielded a miserable total of 402 candidates for 670 seats in the 1900 election. It was short of money and feared any split in the anti-Unionist vote. In the short term, the pact was a stunning success for both parties. The Liberals swept to power in 1906, and the Unionists suffered their worst ever defeat (until July 2024). The Unionists still polled over 43% of the vote (compared with 23.7% in 2024), but the Liberals and LRC had worked closely together in a highly successful and coordinated pincer movement. At this point, Labour and the Liberals were closely aligned in many areas of policy. Both parties were in favour of free trade, progressive taxation and social policy, an internationalist outlook, and (mostly) Home Rule for Ireland. And Labour MPs supported Lloyd George’s ‘People’s Budget’ and Liberal plans on Lords reform. ✍️David Laws https://lnkd.in/e2GTZ8_r

It's a Labour Landslide ... with just 34% of the vote ... John Authers, senior editor for markets at Bloomberg summed it up,  "I wouldn't vote for Labour, one of my favorite contacts in the City told me this week, but they aren't going to mess things up." This is the attitude permeating the UK's financial community. The mood for months has been the Conservatives deserved to lose power. It doesn't matter much, if Labour do win. They could hardly do much worse than the Tories Now the voters have spoken, taking the same attitude as the City perhaps. Casting ballots tactically, against the Tories. Labour's share of the vote didn't rise much but ... In the final count, Labour gained 211 seats, leading with 412 seats overall. The Conservatives lost 250 seats, entering the House next week, with just 120 seats. Lib Dems the big gainers with 63 new MPs and 71 seats in the lower chamber. Reform the big no show with just five seats at close of play. It must have been Ed Davey's bungee jumping which tipped the poll for the Lib Dems. Perhaps Nigel Farage, should have been at the end of a bungee rope. Many would have voted for that. For the Tories, it was the end of an era. Many big names lost in the battle. Liz Truss, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps (Defence Secretary), Gillian Keegan, (Education Secretary) and Lucy Frazer (Culture Secretary. For the Tories and the electorate, it has all been too much. Since 2016 there have been five prime ministers, seven chancellors, seven foreign secretaries, seven home secretaries, eight industry ministers and nine education secretaries. In 2022 alone, the country experienced three prime ministers, four chancellors of the exchequer, three home secretaries, three health secretaries, three industry ministers and five education secretaries. Since the implosion of the gilts market in 2022, it has been taken as inevitable the Conservatives would lose out in the election. The terrifying episode of rising rates, would ensure Labour would not attempt a big expansion of tax and spending plans in a dash for growth. Labour will take over, accepting the bond market won't let them do anything too expansionary or ambitious. Whatever Labour does next, it will be within the parameters set by the gilts market. That's why the City is so relaxed. The Work Is Urgent ... We Begin It Today ... The Bond vigilantes are watching ... Want to read more https://lnkd.in/e_-XDXKw

So that's it - we have a new Prime Minister. Labour has won the UK General Election, sparking renewed calls for changes to IR35 tax rules affecting contractors. The victory has led to a push from industry groups like IPSE and the FCSA for Labour to amend or repeal the IR35 reforms, which many believe unfairly impact self-employed professionals. This election result is seen as a potential turning point for contractors who hope for more supportive policies under the new government. Here's hoping, hey! This article from Contractor UK is an interesting read https://lnkd.in/eHgb5yr9 What are your thoughts on the new leader and what changes are you hoping to see? #LabourWin #GeneralElection #IR35

Political commentators and observers are agreed - Labour will win tomorrow’s #GeneralElection. Even the Conservatives appear to agree - their recent campaign communications focussing on warnings about how big Labour’s majority could be. On the question of the scale of majority things are far less certain. The BBC’s poll tracker which includes figures from 19 separate polling companies including Opinium, Redfield & Wilton, Savanta, Survation & YouGov has Labour on 40 points in the final week of campaigning. How this lead relates to seats won is open to interpretation. Don't Call it a ‘Super-Majority’ Pollsters have a Labour majority ranging from around 150 seats up to 400+. Some projections have the Conservatives falling short of 100 seats - an extinction level event claim some hyperbolic interpretations. Others talk of an American style ‘super-majority’ for Labour - not an entirely applicable phrase in the UK but a useful descriptor nonetheless. Sir Keir yesterday made the case for for a strong mandate to - "seriously change" the country so that people would have "more money in their pockets”. Meanwhile Rishi Sunak has again warned that if Labour won a big majority - "they will be unchecked and unaccountable". Does size matter? The size of the majority WILL make a difference going forward. A new Labour Government that is seen to have under-performed at the polls will feel it’s had its wings clipped. Decisions around policy delivery and governance will feel harder, perhaps more politically risky. By contrast a new Government flying high having delivered the biggest majority in 10, even 20+ years will be emboldened. This could effect the speed of change. While its always tricky to deliver anything meaningful in terms of policy in the the fabled ‘first 100 days’, a landslide this week will provide the impetus to give it a good try. A huge majority will also trigger a certain degree of internal pressure to go beyond the manifesto pledges. While the Labour manifesto is as the New Statesman describes ‘quietly radical’ - parts of the party will want the leadership to take the mandate and run with it. Bellwether Seats On election night there will be a number of results to look out for which will signal the scale of Labour’s win. Some of these seats switched to Labour in 1997 but have voted with the Government since 2010. Others have never returned a Labour MP and doing so this time around will signal a huge sea-change indicative of a major landslide. Results Swindon North, Hexham, Cannock Chase, Aldershot & Torbay will give a good idea of how things are progressing through the night - read more here: https://lnkd.in/ewMx7c-g

More excellent analysis below from Burson around the UK General Election - worth a good read. There is a clear mood and vote for change and the country needs new momentum from today, but even with the peaceful and sane transfer of democratic power today people remain sadly polarised over so many vital issues. Over 4 million people voted for the Reform Party, with 9.7m voting for Labour, 6.8m for the Conservatives and 3.5 for the Liberal Democrats. I am hoping Labour can bring people together at a volatile time so that we can rebuild the country's reputation for integrity and the rule of law and reinvent its reliability and investment case.

Rishi’s announcement got you wondering what’s next? Check out our latest high-level insights on the UK election below, and get in touch if you’d like to know more.

4 thoughts on Labour's victory today: Expect legislation. Labour has the mandate to push legislation through: For the first time since circa 2015/2016 there will be a full legislative agenda (25+ Bills of substance). The manifesto will be implemented at speed as well as anticipated U-Turns (potentially broader windfall taxes and corporation tax). The First 100 Days is Key: The Party’s priority will be to implement quick, and cheap (for government), policies to show early momentum against the five pledged missions. Likely early action includes reform of the planning system, which does not require huge funds; the setting up of GB Energy, with £8 billion already ring-fenced; and early consultations on a host of new strategies, from healthy eating through to a 10 Year Industrial Strategy and accompanying Infrastructure Strategy. We can also expect a consultation on Angela Rayner’s plans to bolster worker’s rights. This does not require a significant amount of new government spending but could prove an early flash-point with business. Watch-out for the Budget: Labour’s first fiscal event is in the Autumn, at a time of low growth, high borrowing costs and creaking infrastructure. How Labour squares this inheritance with delivering its five missions will be key. Falling global energy prices could, however, give the new Prime Minister the improved economic circumstances he needs.   ‘Politics’ is still important. Although winning a huge victory, the shallow nature of the victory should give Labour pause, with Starmer receiving just 36% of votes case versus Blair receiving 46% of votes cast in his 1997 victory. Given the new makeup of Parliament (with a Lib Dem surge, Nigel Farage in for the first time, the Greens), pressure group politics is here. Whilst that may not lead to changes in legislation, it does provide fertile ground for new advocates or detractors to an organisations’ position to be more influential than at first thought. Britain has an emphatic winner to this election but its electorate feels as divided as before. 

UK Election – What Would Change Under a Labour Government? Prime Minister Sunak has sent Westminster scrambling by calling a snap election for 4 July. As always, Gatehouse will be supporting its clients in anticipating changes that affect business performance, rather than competing with the news outlets or pollsters. Leveraging insights from our geopolitical network, Gatehouse has analysed the strategic priorities of a potential Labour government in key areas such as fiscal policy, industrial strategy, energy, financial services and the UK’s relationship with Europe. To learn more about our findings and discuss what the UK Election might mean for your organisation, please contact [email protected] Key Takeaways: 1. Keir Starmer is overwhelmingly likely to become the UK’s next Prime Minister on 5 July, and will look to position the Labour Party for at least two terms in office. Achieving a majority of over 60 (i.e. 355/650 seats, up from 205 today) is not guaranteed, but would spare Starmer from being beholden to the hard-left flank of his party. A larger swathe of backbenchers though could grow impatient with ‘continuity’ politics. 2. The key issue for business is whether Labour will continue its pro-business posture, seeing the private sector as a vehicle for economic growth rather than more tax revenue. With limited fiscal headroom and only some scope to tweak fiscal rules, much rests on the outcome of supply-side reforms, many of which will be announced in the Autumn Statement. 3. Unless external shocks (e.g. Russian victory in Ukraine; European energy shortages; Trump trade approach) force sudden policy changes, the operating backdrop for most businesses will not be transformed by a Labour victory (though as Labour’s slogan would argue, “Stability Is Change”). Exceptions include oil & gas licenses, supply-side reforms and marginally less friction in UK-EU trade (there are no easy, early wins). Companies will be thankful to have built out stakeholder relationships already, as the expedited election timeframe means that forming new connections or advocating new policy proposals will be very challenging. What to Watch: 1. Labour policy disagreements before and after manifesto release (without a Conference to resolve them): immigration, transgender rights, UK-EU relations, defence spending, welfare. 2. Scotland will be key to the size of Labour’s majority: the Party won just 1/59 Scottish seats in 2019, versus 56/59 in 1997 and 41/59 in 2010. 3. What red lines the Labour Manifesto does not specify about future UK-EU relations, e.g. dynamic alignment on regulatory matters and a role for the ECJ in disputes. 4. What extra sources of tax revenue are discussed, in case growth does not materialise (business, wealth, top-rate income, financial transactions). Also, proposed adjustments to fiscal rules and OBR reporting requirements. #Gatehouse #UKElections #KeirStarmer #Labour

StatistaS UK Politics The UK’s Labour Party Secures Landslide Win UK general election Jul 5, 2024 The UK’s Labour Party has won the 2024 general election, pushing out the Conservatives after 14 years of rule. The Labour Party, headed by Sir Keir Starmer, won 412 parliamentary seats across the UK, securing a landslide majority well over the 326 seats mark and saw a gain of 211 seats since the last general election in 2019. Counting was still ongoing at the time of writing, with two seats yet to be accounted for. As the following chart based on BBC reporting shows, the Conservatives, or Tories as they are commonly known, trailed some way behind, having lost 250 seats since the last parliamentary election - their worst defeat ever. Notable MPs to have lost their positions include Liz Truss, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Penny Mordaunt. It’s brighter news for the Greens though, who secured four seats in parliament, up from just one seat in the House of Commons in the 2019 election. This puts them on par with the newly established far-right Reform UK, headed by Brexiteer Nigel Farage, the MP candidate for Clacton. Farage, who is a Member of the European Parliament, has now entered the House of Commons for the first time, after seven failed attempts. Meanwhile, another surprise success went to Jeremy Corbyn, who retained the Islington North seat as an independent candidate after having been expelled from the Labour Party which he formerly led. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party saw major losses, losing 38 seats, as swathes of voters chose to cast their ballot instead for Labour this time round, while in Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin had a greater number of MPs win seats than any other party for the first time. Starmer has said that his UK government will now work towards starting “to rebuild our country”, having pledged in his manifesto to, among other promises, build 1.5 million homes over the next five years, cut NHS waiting times by adding more than 40,000 appointments a week by paying staff more to work weekends and evenings and to recruit 6,500 more teachers and introduce free breakfast clubs at every primary school in England.

'On Tuesday, October 1, two different realities unfolded in France. Thousands of people, led by trade unions including the General Confederation of Labor (CGT) and Solidaires, took to the streets demanding the repeal of President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial pension reform, salary increases, and broader improvements to their living standards. Meanwhile, newly appointed Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivered his inaugural speech in the National Assembly, laying out a vision for his mandate that was, essentially, everything but what the workers are rallying for. Ahead of the protests, trade union leaders emphasized once again that Barnier’s appointment reflected contempt for democratic principles and the recent election results. The left-progressive New Popular Front (NFP) coalition secured the most parliamentary seats, but President Macron, citing fears of instability, refused to let them form a government. Instead, after weeks of delay, he turned to the right-wing Barnier. This nod confirms what many social movements and progressive groups in France had already warned about. In the desperate attempt to safeguard his neoliberal project, Macron has delivered exactly what the people demanded he avoid: further austerity, more spending on policing, and a stronger position for the National Rally.' #France #TradeUnions #pensionreform #livingstandards #austerity