Despatches from the Business of Cannabis, New York
“If I make it there, I’m gonna make it anywhere...”
Perhaps, but I guarantee it won’t be an easy ride. It never is.
Prohibition Partners hosted their Business of Cannabis New York event on November 12. I was a workshop facilitator (Financial Modelling) and panellist. If you don’t know PP, they are a leading global cannabis market researcher, industry connector and event company.
The crowd was mostly NYC-based, dispensary owners (with assorted service providers) so not entirely representative of the State’s cannabis sector. (It would be helpful to get a temperature check from growers and retailers from upstate New York. Next time.)
Some of my key takeaways from the speakers and scuttlebutt from the bar:
> There is optimism that the New York recreational market is finally starting to roll on all fronts.
> Industry revenues are trending to exceed $800M in 2024. Frustratingly, big TAM numbers continue to be tossed around despite hard lessons from other markets.
> According to the CCB, there are approx. 273 legal adult use dispensaries, hundreds of cultivation & processing licenses and 450+ brands in market as of November 12.
> There was (not surprisingly given the crowd) little mention of the substantial volume of ‘grey’ product flowing into the State.
> Many attendees are naïve in thinking that NY can avoid the same challenges that bedevil other jurisdictions. These include margin compression, over production, and the inevitable slowdown that comes with market maturity.
> The illicit market is finally being addressed by the authorities. However, without a sustained enforcement effort it will be a 'wack-a-mole' effort for the foreseeable future to shut down illegal sellers.
> Many of the attendees were confident and hopeful, with a dash of bravado. They view NY as a unique, sophisticated market of consumers, retailers and brand developers. Haven’t we heard the same thing from our California and BC friends? And we know how those markets have played out.
> As might be expected most of the attendees were supportive of the regulations and believe that the OCM troubles are behind them. There was little mention of the negatives: MSOs unfairly being shut out of the market, CAURD expirations, improperly voided license applications and pending lawsuits.
> Modest amounts of debt and equity funding is finally arriving through special government programs and external funders. I wonder, however, if there will enough money (billons is needed) to kickstart and sustain the industry. As important, are there enough investable companies to effectively absorb the capital given NY’s cost & tax burden and the inevitable operational hiccups?
We shall see. My fingers are crossed.
I have assisted NY cannabis firms get out of the gate and position themselves for profitability. I can help your business do the same.
#cannabis #newyork #cannabisindustry
Thanks for your contribution to the discussion, Jazz!