Jason Kirby’s Post

What Peter Walker of Carta notes is striking, though not surprising. Besides NY, CA, other probably hot spots with a valuation premium are likely Chicago-proper in IL, Boston in MA and lesser so Atlanta in GA, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale (SoFL) in FL and Seattle-Tacoma in WA with possible spillover into Portland in OR. I’d actually be curious of the ranking at the state level, and also at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level vs. national state-level and major-metro-level averages. No matter, the implications are very clear: the highest valuation premiums come where there is the highest level of #innovation & #entrepreneurship activity, in spite of the high cost of living and housing in those particular geographies. Curious also if there is a global survey that compares all major innovation centers of the planet, inclusive of European, Southeast Asian, Japanese, Chinese, South Asian (as in India & Pakistan), Oceania (Australia, New Zealand), Middle East and Africa and LatAm. Thoughts, Peter? Great insights! Thanks Carta & Thanks Peter!

The valuation premium for startups in California and New York is real—and might be rising. Spun through valuations data for 7,098 rounds raised by SaaS companies since 2019. Only included primary round data, so no confusing bridges or extensions. Focused in on Seed, Series A, and Series B. When you split the medians into CA & NY vs Other States, the disparity is pretty stark. The minimum premium for startup valuations in the two biggest venture markets was 21%, while in some stages and years the premium was as high as 70%. And after being somewhat reduced in the down year of 2023, the CA/NY premium is back in full force so far in 2024. 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘂𝗺 𝗯𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 • Seed: 41% higher medians in CA/NY vs Other States • Series A: 59% higher medians • Series B: 38% higher medians So - are companies in those two markets just better companies? What is happening? 𝗔𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝘀 • Startup ecosystems in CA and NY are more mature, meaning the competition for the best deals is higher, thus driving up valuations.    • Valuations at the earliest part of the venture journey in CA/NY start at a premium (in pre-seed, etc), which drives up the price later on.    • By Series B, many excellent startups founded elsewhere will have moved to the Bay or NYC, adding to the valuation advantage.    • Investors in the most mature markets are less price-sensitive than VCs in other locations across the US. I'm sure I'm missing a lot of other supporting points as to why the valuation gap has persisted. But there's no denying that a valuation premium is consistently stamped on to startups in the Bay and NYC. Of course, taking a step back - valuations at Seed and A in particular have gotten much higher over the past 5 years regardless of location. A rising tide lifts all boats! Appreciate those of you who reached out during my week off - back at the startup data game 🙏 #startups #founders #valuations #venturecapital More data like this out every week from us at Carta — subscribe using the link in graphic.

Valuation premium or... valuation curse? 🙀 Seeing "pre-everything", two-founders-with-a-deck startups in SF raise at same valuations as seed stage "with-everything" (product, traction, growth, ARR, profitable) startups in the #Baltics. How will the SF startups grow into their valuations? Is the bet that they'll be so massively successful that the entry point doesn't matter? 🤔 #venturecapital #startups #valuations

The valuation premium for startups in California and New York is real—and might be rising. -------------------------- Spun through valuations data for 7,098 rounds raised by SaaS companies since 2019. Only included primary round data, so no confusing bridges or extensions. Focused in on Seed, Series A, and Series B. When you split the medians into CA & NY vs Other States, the disparity is pretty stark. The minimum premium for startup valuations in the two biggest venture markets was 21%, while in some stages and years the premium was as high as 70%. And after being somewhat reduced in the down year of 2023, the CA/NY premium is back in full force so far in 2024. 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘂𝗺 𝗯𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 • Seed: 41% higher medians in CA/NY vs Other States • Series A: 59% higher medians • Series B: 38% higher medians So - are companies in those two markets just better companies? What is happening? 𝗔𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝘀 • Startup ecosystems in CA and NY are more mature, meaning the competition for the best deals is higher, thus driving up valuations. • Valuations at the earliest part of the venture journey in CA/NY start at a premium (in pre-seed, etc), which drives up the price later on. • By Series B, many excellent startups founded elsewhere will have moved to the Bay or NYC, adding to the valuation advantage. • Investors in the most mature markets are less price-sensitive than VCs in other locations across the US. I'm sure I'm missing a lot of other supporting points as to why the valuation gap has persisted. But there's no denying that a valuation premium is consistently stamped on to startups in the Bay and NYC. Of course, taking a step back - valuations at Seed and A in particular have gotten much higher over the past 5 years regardless of location. A rising tide lifts all boats! Appreciate those of you who reached out during my week off - back at the startup data game 🙏 -------------------------- Remember to enhace your funding journey with https://kaaria.ai/ KAARIA Credit, thanks and kudos to Peter Walker over Carta #valuations #startups #fundraising #founders #Startup #innovation #entrepreneurship #kaaria #sustainability #kaariastartupvaluation #investing #networking #venturecapital #kaariagetfunded

#founders, some info to help you make sense of valuations over the last year. Before you negotiate with investors, have an idea of your range. Good luck! #pitchdeck #investorpitch #founders #venturecapital #pitching #fundraising #pitch4impact #innovation #entrepreneurship 

Interesting information here Medtech start-ups: what do you think? Do you agree with these numbers? I'm curious to see what 2025 brings to the market. Kudos to Nathaniel Smith for sharing this information. #startups #medtech #fundraising

Founders: use this cheatsheet to understand the current market for startup valuations at Seed, Series A, and Series B. Data is from US startups who raised a primary round from Jan-Sept 2024. Usually these sorts of charts just give a median and track it over time - but in this case, I thought it would be useful to split the data into the full range. From the 10th percentile at the low end to the 90th percentile at the high end. 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 • Energy consistently has the highest or close to highest upper range across the sectors we studied. Maybe in part due to the high capital needs (which pushes valuations up if dilution is to remain manageable).    • The gap between the lower end of the range (say 10th to 25th percentile) is usually much smaller than the gap between the 75th and the 90th. There really are some wild outlier valuations across most industries.    • Industries are fairly close together at the median valuation at Seed, but the differences become much more stark as you move across the alphabet stages.    • Round sizes have been rising at Seed and Series A across the past year (and a little at B as well, though less so). This has in turn pushed those median vals higher.    • Companies that raise at the 90th percentile have no guarantee of staying on that upper pathway through the next round. Many startups will bounce around in the ranges from round to round.    • There are regional variations - the ranges for Silicon Valley startups will typically be higher at each benchmark than for startups in the Midwest or South. Not right answers in these charts - only a snapshot of real deals being completed. Share with a fundraising founder, and here's to a strong deal season to close 2024! #startups #founders #valuations #fundraising #venturecapital Farm-to-table data, prepared fresh every Thursday morning in our data newsletter. Subscribe at the link in graphic.

Early-stage venture is so weird right now. I've been trying to use data to put some evidence behind the general vibe that seems to dominate early-stage venture backed startups. I'd describe the vibe as "generally gloomy with pockets of rabid enthusiasm". So...weird. The chart below may have something to do with it. We looked at all primary rounds raised in the first half of each year since 2018. This analysis just includes SaaS companies but it applies to many other sectors as well. Black line shows the change in median valuation since H1 2018, orange line shows the change in number of rounds. These two metrics paint completely different pictures of the world. 𝗦𝗮𝗮𝗦 𝗦𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 • Median valuations in H1 2024 are up 103% since H1 2018. In fact they've never been higher! • Total rounds raised in H1 2024 is down 14% since H1 2018. 𝗦𝗮𝗮𝗦 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗔 • Valuations up 111% today compared to H1 2018. • Total rounds down 7%. 𝗦𝗮𝗮𝗦 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗕 • Valuations up 136% today compared to H1 2018. 136%! • Total rounds down 3%. So the gloom people feel comes from the round activity. Things are moving slowly, fundraising is taking forever, etc. And the bursts of energy come from the high valuations. These "prices" (if you think of it as a market with VCs on one side and founders on the other) are super high. Now I don't think it's reasonable to assume that total rounds and valuations should always trend upwards together. There just aren't enough VC-investable startups for the line to increase linearly. But this moment does feel out of whack. There is some influence from the AI boom on the high side of these valuations but honestly this analysis applies across industries and technologies. The increase in valuations brought on in the pandemic boom have been far stickier than the lack of funding would suggest. What happens next?...No, I'm genuinely asking. Perhaps these lines have diverged permanently with only a few companies achieving high valuations in our future or maybe valuations will level off and fundraising will slowly climb. Or something else entirely 🤷 If this sort of analysis is your thing, be sure to subscribe to our Data Minute newsletter at the link in the graphic! #cartadata #startups #venturecapital #valuations #founders

Full data on Q2 2024 for US startups - are thing getting better? Cautious yes on that one. Highlights from our State of Private Markets report below, but you should read the full thing for 25+ charts and thoughtful analysis: https://lnkd.in/g5vjXgTJ 𝟭𝟬 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀  1. Total fundraising grew from $18.7 billion in Q1 to $20.9 billion in Q2 across all US startups on Carta. Not a major shift, but steady improvement.       2. The percent of all rounds that were down rounds fell from 24% to 17% quarter over quarter. This is an good signal as down round percentage had been climbing since mid-2022.       3.  Percent of bridge rounds fell for every stage except seed. More capital betting on new companies vs supporting current ones from VCs (so good for some, bad for others).       4. Number of total acquired companies hit the highest mark since Q3 2022. Animal spirits flowing again?       5. Capital more concentrated in major markets, but strong showings from TX, FL, CO, and WA outside of the traditional Silicon Valley / NYC axis.       6. Dilution per round for primary fundraising either held steady or fell in Q2. Good deals to be had for the founders who can raise them.       7. Strong median valuations at Seed and Series A: $15M pre-money and $40M pre-money respectively.       8. Percent of deals with a liquidation preference over 1x fell in Q2.       9. Percent of deals with participating preferred stock fell in Q2.      10. Time between rounds still very high compared to the prior 4 years. This isn't a 2021 boom time - but it's a good deal better than 2023 🙏 #startups #fundraising #founders #venturecapital  

Does Q2 2024 data suggest better days ahead for U.S. #startups? Maybe, per Peter Walker of Carta's analysis below. Highlights: "●Positive signs in venture activity: The number of rounds and total cash raised by startups both increased this quarter. ●Primary round valuations rose at all stages except for Series A; steady. ●More founder-friendly environment: The rate of down rounds fell to a six-quarter low, and it is less common for deals to include structured terms that favor investors. ●Northeastern recovery: Startups based in the Northeast increased their share of VC cash to 25%, at the expense of the West and Midwest census regions." See the post below and full report for more insights. #Venture #GlobalBusiness _____________________________ What actionable international insights do you need to grow your revenues globally? Hello, we are The NewComm Global Group, Inc., "Global Business Success From the Inside Out" (sm). If you're ready to #GrowGlobal, please DM here or complete our go-to-market assessment today for a free consultation. Let's get started!