Ivelin Zvezdov’s Post

At this year's National Bureau of Economic Research meeting of the #insurance group the importance of price-making in distressed markets was the big topic. While building Next Generation Models [NGM] at Verisk Extreme Event Solutions, we wrote these two articles (with Society of Actuaries, Casualty Actuarial Society review) for colleagues in #underwriting and #riskmanagement. The papers outline the value of our view of natural catastrophe risk for metrics in spatial #diversification, https://lnkd.in/edkp89T & for competitive #premium pricing, https://lnkd.in/gA5bZTyJ. These have brought about some excellent discussion in the community on the #insurancecoverage gap & a worthy suggestion to look at the theoretical volume of #reinsurance coverage needed for distressed markets to function properly with enhanced clarity, certainty and predictability. If interested to contribute with data or research, please reach out. #floridainsurace, #californiainsurance

Do you remember our episode with Joshua Pyle, FCAS about managing bias in actuarial sciences? If you're attending the CAS Spring meeting, you'll get to hear more about this topic from him, Andrew, and this amazing panel. Details below. Don't miss it!

We’ve devised this quick guide to 10 key steps for developing effective actuarial processes. Each step requires detailed analysis, judgement and excellent communication.  If you need support with designing enduring and effective actuarial processes, our team can help you. https://lnkd.in/ebixAss #actuarialexcellence #actuaries #insuranceindustry #processes Andries Beukes | Maksud Patel | Chris Lennon

The AILO Actuarial Special Interest Group meets next week to hear about trends and learnings from the 2023 year-end actuarial reporting cycle and key challenges of multi-jurisdictional Solvency reporting and diverging requirements across jurisdictions. With plenty of opportunity to discuss these areas and to determine future topics of interest, all AILO Members with a particular focus on the actuarial discipline of our industry are welcome to join the debate. Contact [email protected] for more information. #AILOMember #Actuarial #SpecialInterestGroup

🚀 Are you going to CAS? 🚀 Dive into the future of actuarial analytics with our interactive workshop at Casualty Actuarial Society Annual Meeting! Discover how synthetic data can transform ratemaking, underwriting, and risk assessment through hands-on exercises and expert insights from Noa Zamstein, PhD, and Boris Pritzker. >>https://lnkd.in/dNhreUVU #CAS #Actuaries #SyntheticData

💡Through centuries of change, the actuarial profession has evolved as the guardian of financial stability, adaptability, and risk management. From the inception of the field to the present day, actuaries have continuously embraced new knowledge, advanced analytical techniques, and emerging technologies. Guided by mathematical precision, actuarial science has navigated the complexities of an ever-evolving world, ensuring the resilience of industries and safeguarding the future. As we embark on the next era of innovation, the actuarial profession will continue to shape a secure and prosperous future for organizations and societies alike. #riact #actuarial #educationalfriday

Read the open access article from the North American Actuarial Journal. “Reverse ES (CVa) Optimization Formula” shows a new formula based on Expected Shortfall (ES) and is available for free until Dec. 3: https://bit.ly/495Gevk. #riskmanagement #actuaryresearch

*Error propagation and attribution in simulation-based capital models* by Daniel Crispin – published in the March 2024 issue of the Annals of Actuarial Science Link to the full text in the comments. Abstract: Calculation of loss scenarios is a fundamental requirement of simulation-based capital models and these are commonly approximated. Within a life insurance setting, a loss scenario may involve an asset-liability optimization. When cashflows and asset values are dependent on only a small number of risk factor components, low-dimensional approximations may be used as inputs into the optimization and resulting in loss approximation. By considering these loss approximations as perturbations of linear optimization problems, approximation errors in loss scenarios can be bounded to first order and attributed to specific proxies. This attribution creates a mechanism for approximation improvements and for the eventual elimination of approximation errors in capital estimates through targeted exact computation. The results are demonstrated through a stylized worked example and corresponding numerical study. Advances in error analysis of proxy models enhance confidence in capital estimates. Beyond error analysis, the presented methods can be applied to general sensitivity analysis and the calculation of risk. #actuarialscience #insurance #research #proxymodels #approximation #simulation #erroranalysis #sensitivity

Don't miss out on an invaluable opportunity to enhance your understanding of actuarial science! Our "Actuarial Science for Non-Actuaries" workshop is just around the corner, and registration closes in 6 days. Join industry experts to gain insights into actuarial principles and their real-world applications, designed specifically for professionals outside the field. Secure your spot now and broaden your skill set. #healthinsurance #pricingstrategies #DRGs #risk Dr Shay Ganesh Craig Getz Monique Hoffman Margie Mackechnie

Read the open access article from the North American Actuarial Journal. “Reverse ES (CVa) Optimization Formula” shows a new formula based on Expected Shortfall (ES) and is available for free until Dec. 3: https://bit.ly/40aDKt4. #riskmanagement #actuaryresearch