I met Anatoliy Amelin at the beginning of the war when we met by chance in a parking lot. We turned out to be neighbors, and at the time I did not know his occupation. During our conversations, he talked a lot about possible scenarios of the war, and, frankly, his predictions were striking in their accuracy. The events he talked about began to materialize one by one, and now, two years later, I am seeing many of the scenarios come true
Anatoliy and I did not leave Kyiv during the first months of the war. His analytical approach and understanding of the events helped me to better navigate the difficult circumstances. He acted on the principle of “skin in the game”, which makes his views especially valuable to me. I recommend reading his article about a possible world in 10 years. It gives food for thought
The link to the article is in the first comment. I recommend reading it.
P.S. Any prediction of the future is always a risk, but for me, after the outbreak of the war, I began to take all “unlikely” events much more seriously. The article is a kind of “Orwell 2035”, I hope this time Anatoly was wrong
https://lnkd.in/ehrgVrKA
First sighting of British Bar mines in Ukraine
The Russians have found an anti-vehicle minefield laid with British Bar mines. The shape of the mines shows why they are called ‘Bar’ mines but the correct designation is either L9 or L18. A number of variants were produced and these are indicated by the suffix A1, A2, A3, A4, etc.
The elongated shape of the mine is designed to be placed perpendicularly across the expected approach of the enemy, so the approaching vehicles are more likely to hit the mines with their tracks or wheels.
These mines are most likely fitted with either the L89A1 single-impulse fuze (which has a clear arming lever), or the L90A1 double-impulse fuze (with a black arming lever). Despite what the Russians think, the Bar mine can incorporate an anti-disturbance fuze. A magnetic influence fuze was also developed for this mine.
These mines were in service with the British Army from 1969 to 2010.
https://lnkd.in/gH4AGYhN#ukrainewar#osint#EOD
Our new paper regarding the Russian state’s attack on the childfree movement. Here, you will find information on what is happening with childlessness in Russia and the main factors contributing to its rise.
https://lnkd.in/ezcAk5yC
AI expert. Knowledge curator, filtering the noise and contributing to a more informed world. Urban lover. Member of ICRAC and SKR. Co-founder Afkar Collective, Professor of Law and Science and Technology Studies UAB
As Ukraine continues its defense, the government has developed an impressive digital platform called the DREAM Digital Restoration EcoSystem.
This centralized system aims to accelerate its recovery and modernization efforts, even as the war persists. And it could serve as a crucial benchmark for how other nations approach large-scale reconstruction in the future.
DREAM aims to provide complete transparency across the entire project lifecycle - from creation and prioritization, to funding, procurement, and implementation. It unites 9 different Ukrainian-developed IT solutions into a single, integrated data hub.
This allows for seamless coordination and decision-making on critical rebuilding projects at the national, regional, and local levels.
Key capabilities of the DREAM ecosystem include:
Aligning processes with International Financial Institution standards for efficiency and accountability
Maintaining flexibility to customize the platform to the unique needs of each community
Aggregating data from diverse sources into a cohesive "single window" for enhanced visibility
Enabling transparent tracking of project progress, resource allocation, and outcomes
#UkraineWar#UkraineReconstruction#DigitalTransformation#Transparency#InfrastructureModernization#PublicSectorInnovation#ReconstructionBenchmarkhttps://dream.gov.ua
Dr. Maya Sion - Tzidkiyahu, PhD, our European Union expert and lecturer at the European Forum, has once again been called upon to share her expertise on EU affairs in the media. In a recent article, she sheds light on the deepening tensions between Hungary and the EU, emphasizing that "the crisis between the EU and Hungary has been ongoing for years" and is now at a critical juncture. Her analysis provides a sharp look into how Hungary’s democratic backsliding under Orbán challenges the core values of the European Union.
https://lnkd.in/d_JWTh7E
The call from Ukraine's allies to present realistic goals in the war is not, I think because the allies want to reach some agreement with Russia. At present, 'compromise' has exhausted itself, just as it did after the signing of the Atlantic Charter in 1941, which China is now trying to imitate in its modern principles of peaceful resolution. The Atlantic Charter was about the victory of the anti-Hitler coalition. Now, a similar consensus is being formed and agreed upon regarding victory. Still, no one is yet ready to define what victory would look like for the Democratic coalition in this war. Allies began by asking Ukraine, which has been talking about victory all along.
From Ukraine's perspective, as it can be holistically integrated, victory means Russia without the potential for military aggression within internationally recognized borders and one that is ready to compensate Ukraine for the losses caused by Russian aggression. There are doubts among the allies about the amount of weaponry and human lives needed for this. The Russian foreign opposition is shouting that Ukrainian forces and Western weapons should put them on Moscow's throne instead of Putin. Then, the new Russian rulers would live in a commonwealth with Ukraine in Soviet geography. None of this in the 'Russian democratic plan' is realistic.
However, the persistent demands of the Russian diaspora to include some internal political changes in Russia as part of the victory plan may have merit. In my opinion, this could be limited to a new constitution of the Russian Federation granting its subjects the right to declare sovereignty, independence, and non-nuclear status.
https://lnkd.in/dabt--AF
#victoryanddefeat
H/T to Валерій Пекар who already commented on it. This comment, translated via Deepl from me, is in the comment section.
Seven levels of war — 4.0. No win, no defeat
On May 16, 2024, one of the best Ukrainian experts in the field of defense and war studies, Mykola Bielieskov, published Texty.org.ua an important article "What should be the strategy of victory? We need to start a public discussion."
Since the discussion on this issue is not conducted enough in Ukraine, it is critically important to support the expert's call. That's why I decided to update my material from a year ago "The Dead End of History. Anti-Fukuyama, or the Seven Levels of War" and offer his view on the multi-layered worldview and values conflict within which we are waging a conventional war against Russia.
Bielieskov professionally reveals the issue of waging a conventional war against the aggressor state at the operational and strategic level in the horizon of the next two years, the narrative for which may be the formula "Not to lose is to win
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