Helen Carlisle’s Post

ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, and Australian GDP take the spotlight early in the week, with US Non-Farm Payrolls #NFP wrapping things up on Friday. 📊 📉 📈 We see key data shaping #Fed expectations and market movements ahead. For more insights ▶️ https://lnkd.in/ghnpkkMF #VTMarkets #WeeklyMarketOutlook #MarketNews #Trading

The market is pricing in just 40bps Fed cuts by year end - Does the data below look like a rate cut to you? The nonfarm payrolls report on Friday suggested that the economy is still on its trajectory of rebalancing labor markets, moderating wage growth and cooling inflation. The BLS reported that employers added 175,000 jobs, the smallest and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.

Week 31 - 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week Point 1) New Economic Data Is Not Positive: Last week’s employment data painted a dramatic picture for the U.S. economy. July non-farm payrolls increased by only 114,000, a significant miss from the expected 175,000 and a sharp drop from the revised June figure of 179,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, higher than the anticipated 4.1%. New unemployment claims rose to a staggering 249,000 adding to a weakening employment environment. Wage data provided no respite, with average hourly earnings growing by only 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year, with recent wage gains falling short of expectations and short of inflation. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.8 in July from 48.5 in June, far below the expected 48.8, signaling a deepening contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Week 31 - 5 Things to Know in Investing This Week Point 1) New Economic Data Is Not Positive: Last week’s employment data painted a dramatic picture for the U.S. economy. July non-farm payrolls increased by only 114,000, a significant miss from the expected 175,000 and a sharp drop from the revised June figure of 179,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, higher than the anticipated 4.1%. New unemployment claims rose to a staggering 249,000 adding to a weakening employment environment. Wage data provided no respite, with average hourly earnings growing by only 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year, with recent wage gains falling short of expectations and short of inflation. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.8 in July from 48.5 in June, far below the expected 48.8, signaling a deepening contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Hearing all the inflation numbers from the GOP is certainly sobering. The wage increases seem to be missing in the debate. In the U.S., from 2020 to 2023, wages have generally increased. ***Nominal Wage Growth**: According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), nominal wages (not adjusted for inflation) saw significant growth. From 2020 to 2023, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by about 15-20%, depending on the sector. Granted that is NOMINAL but wages seem to have kept net inflation in the range of 0-1.25% annually which is in the range of a healthy, thriving economy.

A new episode of PGIM Market Commentary is here – topics highlighted: A volatile macro data week, sticky wage growth, and payrolls report. 🎧 Listen here: https://lnkd.in/ed6bf9FJ #markets #finance

The monthly core PCE price data is arguably now the biggest market mover there is, eclipsing even non-farm payrolls. If you're looking for the most accurate forecaster of core PCE, we've got you covered.

A new episode of PGIM Market Commentary is here – topics highlighted: A volatile macro data week, sticky wage growth, and payrolls report. 🎧 Listen here: https://lnkd.in/gY29W3qF #markets #finance

A new episode of PGIM Market Commentary is here – topics highlighted: A volatile macro data week, sticky wage growth, and payrolls report. 🎧 Listen here: https://lnkd.in/gCVWkh5s #markets #finance