Hal Snarr’s Post

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Economist, Statistician, Mathematician, Researcher

CNN, The New York Times, and USA Today reported on a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report released earlier this week regarding #ecoli infections associated with consumers eating McDonald's #QuarterPounders. The news media reporting the story and the CDC must improve their critical thinking skills. The CDC reported that a recent E. coli outbreak (during a recent 15-day period in mostly midwestern states) is linked to Quarter Pounder consumption, resulting in 49 infections 10 hospitalizations 1 death On the surface, one might be outraged by this news. However, to understand if this outbreak is unusual, one must put these numbers in relative terms and then compare them to their national counterparts. To do this, I will compute a best-case scenario for McDonald's by dividing the above numbers by 110,000,000, the estimated number of Americans visiting a McDonald's at least once a year (see the enterpriseappstoday.com report published on 5/22/24). Doing that results in the following McDonald's E. coli rates: 0.45 infections per 1,000,000 people 0.91 hospitalizations per 10,000,000 people 0.91 deaths per 100,000,000 people To get a worst-case scenario, you can divide the above numbers by 28,000,000, which is the average number of Americans who visit a McDonald's daily*. Doing that results in the following McDonald's E. coli rates: 1.75 infections per 1,000,000 people 3.57 hospitalizations per 10,000,000 people 3.57 deaths per 100,000,000 people Either set of rates seems high UNTIL we look at E. coli rates of the general population. An AP article published on 10/22/24 reported the following: in the US, E. coli results in ~74,000 infections 2,000+ hospitalizations 61 deaths Dividing the above by 350,000,000, the estimated population of the US*, results in the following national E. coli rates: 211.43 infections per 1,000,000 people 57.14 hospitalizations per 10,000,000 people 17.43 deaths per 100,000,000 people When McDonald's E. coli rates are compared to their corresponding national rates--both best-case and worst-case scenarios--McDonald's E. coli rates are much LOWER than their corresponding national rates. In short, the CDC recommends you eat at McDonald's if you want to MINIMIZE E. coli infection risk. *The US Census Bureau estimates the population at around 350 million and a report published by enterpriseappstoday.com on 5/22/24 says 8% of Americans visit a McDonald's daily.

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