Steve Dresser’s Post

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CEO at Grocery Insight - transforming retail with global expertise - focused on giving retailers and their teams processes that actually work. Board level exposure. We don't see stores, we see opportunities.

The most interesting thing about #kantar today is that Aldi are within 2% of Asda's market share. Unthinkable even a year ago, but represents a real concern for any retail leaders around the discounters carrying on regardless. Whether sales for #aldi are +2% / -2% or otherwise on Kantar. There will no let up from the discounters on their approach....... #Asda at -5.6% will surprise no one and as stated on here; Christmas will be the nadir but one can only presume brighter times are here with Allan Leighton. The challenge is that it will take time to get the tanker moving. #Morrisons were just +2% which given the woes of #asda is nowhere near strong enough. The stories of the BWS cabinets being opened tells its own story on sales growth, alongside the non-food specials being removed and more space opened out to festive food lines.......... Paints quite a worrying picture. The growth is barely there so clearly #Asda shoppers are decamping elsewhere. #Tesco lead the market growth with +5.2% sales and share up to 28.1%, #Sainsbury's remain strong at +4.7% and share just shy of 16%. #Lidl's growth continues to impress with +6.6% growth and share of 7.7%, only +0.3% on the year, however. It's clear from the wider market view that customers are holding off on purchases, the calendar flow for Christmas (IE still some way off and two more weekends) is playing in to this. Clothing data from #Kantar yesterday showed full price sales abruptly in to reverse too...... Clearly the #budget announcement on NI has spooked employers and by definition, employees who are suddenly worried over job security. Confidence is a fragile thing and the interest rate rises were some time ago, indeed, the rates have fallen since. But a number of customers will be having their ultra low rates come to an end, which immediately puts even more pressure on discretionary spending. Alongside this; #inflation has slowed but we are still recovering from the days of +10% inflation. I would wager most customers haven't felt inflation fall at all, if anything, the opposite is true. Indeed the #Christmas lunch is +6.5% this year. But inflation is slowing?!?! #kantar calls out Wines/Champagne and Spirits having biggest buy on deal. Buy 6, Save 25% on Wines has been almost everywhere in the market for weeks. The new 10p off a litre of fuel! All eyes on the big weeks to come; but consumer (and employer) confidence is notably fragile at the minute and the government must take full responsibility for this......... PS buried in the wider release is the news that #MarksandSpencer have benefitted from one in three households, at 32%, buying food, drink and other groceries from M&S during the 12 weeks to 1 December. Big periods for events and M&S wider appeal is starting to play through with the all important Christmas period where M&S typically pick up extra sales too. Sales +10.4% (!) #foodretail #christmas #trade #kantar

Agree, local M&S foodhall was absolutely crammed at 10:30 this morning, more importantly loads of colleagues replenishing and all checkouts manned, even the self serve had colleagues in attendance to assist.

Richard Harrow

Private Label Expert | Thought Leader | Experienced Non Excutive Board Member | Ambassador More People | Member of PAPA management committee

1w

Steve Dresser I thought the M&S number impressive and not normally quoted by Kantar. Aldi 2% behind of Asda and Lidl 0.9% behind Morrisons really sums it up

Helen Pugh

Multi Site Manager-North West and Cheshire

6d

Good insight

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