FrontierView (part of FiscalNote)’s Post

Heightened caution weighs on growth outlook - Quarterly Predictions, June 2024 Households and businesses are feeling more cautious in the face of higher interest rates and uncertainty about the new Government’s priorities regarding spending and public sector cutbacks. Heightened uncertainty about the outlook has unwound the post-election rebound in confidence and activity towards the end of 2023. Soft demand is now the dominant feature of the New Zealand economy, in contrast to the severe supply constraints which had been the key concern for firms over the COVID-19 pandemic. Quarterly Predictions is an independent review of New Zealand’s economic outlook and includes comprehensive forecasts of the economy. The full publication is available exclusively to NZIER’s members. https://hubs.ly/Q02yyps-0

🚨 Worried about the state of business in Australia? The latest business confidence index signals a shift into negative territory, with significant declines felt across various sectors. Companies like RetailCo, ManufactureNow, and WholesaleHub are among those facing challenges. 📉 Read on to find out more insights and implications for the economy. Check out the full article here: https://buff.ly/3Tt4cKb 📥 📥 📥 📥 📥 Stay ahead of industry trends. Join our newsletter for daily insights: https://buff.ly/3QlzuB6 📥 📥 📥 📥 📥 #BusinessConfidence #EconomicOutlook #AustraliaBusiness

Australia’s recent productivity growth performance is at a 60-year low. Lifting R&D intensity from 1.68% of GDP to 3% of GDP over 10 years will help address this and lift our prosperity. The Group of Eight has developed a roadmap of policy reforms to lift R&D intensity to 3% of GDP by 2035. It is an ambitious timeframe, but universities are in the solutions business. Read the Go8 Report to Government – “Australia’s R&D Intensity: A Decadal Roadmap to 3% of GDP” – here: “https://lnkd.in/gSxWfqJ2 #ResearchandDevelopment #Research #ResearchFunding

Australia’s R&D intensity (R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP) has been in decline for over a decade, at a time when productivity growth has been patchy and advanced economies have been investing heavily in R&D to boost their long-term prospects. The result is a growing gap between our R&D performance and that of advanced OECD economies. If Australia fails to make optimal investment in R&D today, the negative impact on Australia’s productive capacity will be long-lasting. After more than six months of intensive effort, workshops with government, business and industry experts and drawing on world’s best practice, The Group of Eight - Australia’s top 100 globally ranked research-intensive universities - has developed a roadmap of policy reforms to lift R&D intensity to 3 per cent of GDP by 2035. Read the Go8 Report to Government – Australia’s Research and Development (R&D) Intensity: A Decadal Roadmap to 3% of GDP – which sets out 12 evidence-based and fiscally responsible recommendations to achieve this target, here:  https://lnkd.in/gSxWfqJ2 Vicki Thomson Business Council of Australia Council of Small Business Organisations Australia (COSBOA) European Australian Business Council (EABC) Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry (ACCI) Department of Industry, Science and Resources #ReasearchandDevelopment #research #productivity

Yesterday the ABS revealed the Australian economy grew 0.1% for the March 2024 quarter and 1.1% year on year. Some key insights include: 1. While this is the 10th successive quarter of GDP growth, GDP per capita fell for the fifth quarter in a row due to weak economic growth and strong population growth 2. Annual inflation has continued to ease with inflation at 3.6% year on year. Goods like footwear, furniture and household appliances are now cheaper than a year ago 3. Wages continue to grow. The wage price index rose 0.8% in the quarter and is 4% higher year on year 4. Taylor Swift might have done more than bring in the Swiftie express. Her tour along with the Formula 1 may have been the difference between the economy finishing in a positive or negative as the accommodation, catering, arts and recreation industries all felt the benefit of these events

Yesterday the ABS revealed the Australian economy grew 0.1% for the March 2024 quarter and 1.1% year on year. Some key insights include: 1. While this is the 10th successive quarter of GDP growth, GDP per capita fell for the fifth quarter in a row due to weak economic growth and strong population growth 2. Annual inflation has continued to ease with inflation at 3.6% year on year. Goods like footwear, furniture and household appliances are now cheaper than a year ago 3. Wages continue to grow. The wage price index rose 0.8% in the quarter and is 4% higher year on year 4. Taylor Swift might have done more than bring in the Swiftie express. Her tour along with the Formula 1 may have been the difference between the economy finishing in a positive or negative as the accommodation, catering, arts and recreation industries all felt the benefit of these events https://lnkd.in/gKv86cAx

Andrew Pownall and Stephen Moir hosted our final event of 2024 in Melbourne last week. They were joined by Catherine Birch, Senior Economist at ANZ. Thank you to those who attended the event and to Catherine for an insightful presentation and discussion. Here are the key takeaways; - US tariffs are unlikely to be a threat to Australia. We are able to find alternative markets. - China’s economic performance is more of a threat to Australia. - Unemployment is currently at 3.9%. This makes a rate cut less likely in the short term. - Unemployment is however expected to gradually rise. - 80% of private companies cannot get the staff they want. - Australian interest rates were not increased as much as other countries. They are therefore coming down more slowly. - We are past the worst with the economy. There are a number of positive signals out there. - Rate cuts are likely to see a quick rebound in the economy. - A lot of Australian businesses currently struggle with AI to use it to its full potential. - A lack of innovation in Australia e.g. using new technology means productivity is poor in Australia vs the US. #melbourne #moirgroup #cfo #economy #moirgroupevents

As we move towards summer, we are all hopeful of an upturn in the economy. When the cycle does change, it's important to be positioned to maximize the opportunities in front of you. If you're in the manufacturing industry, you should be heartened by the results of the recent MAKE UK/BDO survey. Despite a weak economy, manufacturers' confidence remains robust. Check out the survey results here: https://lnkd.in/eTrQURT4 We can help position you to take advantage of the opportunities ahead. #financedirector #expensereduction #opportunities

Australia has now recorded six consecutive quarters of declining per capita GDP (the longest stretch on quarterly estimates for the last 65 years!) Consumer spending per person has fallen for six straight quarters. Declining productivity means businesses are holding on to labour while not selling enough to justify their roles. This is not sustainable, and the impact will be businesses starting to shed labour over the next six to 12 months to get better balance between outputs and inputs. Big challenge, right? So what can business do to address this effectively? Small, incremental changes with big impacts are the key. In nature, small adaptations that provide an edge are the ones that ultimately win out and thrive. Nature doesn't make drastic changes, but it also doesn't stand still. The same is true in successful businesses. What small, manageable changes can you make now that have big impacts and will position you as having an advantage over your competitors? #NotWrittenWithAI

Australia’s economy has slowed down! Australia’s economy saw a significant slowdown in the December 2023 quarter as higher inflation and hiked interest rates curbed demand. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the economy of Australia grew by 0.2% in the October-December 2023 quarter. This translated to an annualized growth of 1.5%, the slowest since early 2021 when the Australian economy emerged from COVID-induced lockdowns. The annualized return was marginally higher than estimates but lower than the 2.1% growth rate reported in the previous quarter. Robust government spending and business investments kept the economy up as rising costs and high interest rates dampened consumer confidence, thus resulting in lower consumer spending. Data showed that households spent more on essentials as luxury and entertainment spending slowed down. Interestingly, household spending did not add to economic growth as the 0.7% increase in spending was offset by the 0.9% decline in discretionary spending. When reporting, the S&P ASX 200, Australia’s benchmark stock index, was trading at around 7,728.30. Follow ProCapitas for more financial insights. #australia #finance #economy #growth #gdp #financialinsights #shares