Noble Francis’ Post

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Economics Director at the CPA, PhD in Applied Econometrics and Honorary Professor at the Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, UCL

The UK construction workforce rose in 2024 Q3, its 1st rise since the sharp drop in housing new build and rm&i activity in 2023 H2. UK construction employment was 2.06 million in Q3, according to the ONS, 1.0% higher than in Q2 but still 3.4% lower than a year ago (Upper Chart) and at its 2nd lowest level since 2001 Q1 (Q2 being the lowest). The Q3 employment rise reflects the very start of a house building recovery after reaching a low point in 2023 Q4. However, activity still remains low in house building and rm&i. Q3 doesn’t include the full impact of ISG (6th largest contractor, £2.2bn turnover and £4.3bn of contracts) going into administration in September, as the main effects will be on sub-contractors (due to delayed work, cash flow issues and insurance cover problems). These will take time to feed through and exacerbate issues subcontractors already have. Note the rise in Q3 was skewed to self-employment (Lower Chart). UK construction self-employment in 2024 Q3 was 4.6% higher than in Q2 but still 6.2% lower than a year ago. Employees in Q3 were 1.3% lower than in Q2 and 1.6% lower than a year ago. The broader picture is that construction employment in 2024 Q3 was 366,000 lower than at the recent peak in 2019 Q1. Employment will recover in the next few years but it will take a long time to get back to 2019 Q1 levels, even if the demand is there. After the 2008 financial crisis, it took over 10 years to get back to peak employment and even then, it was still 157,000 lower than in 2008 Q3. So, in a downturn, we lose some workers temporarily but others permanently as some go to other industries after being burnt by construction and don’t return. Plus, note that during this downturn, it will be more difficult to recover as many workers as the majority of the recent loss has been in older UK-born construction workers (see link in the comments to my post specifically on this issue). CITB reports construction apprenticeship starts averaged 31,000 per year over the last 5 years, and the dropout rate is over 40%. So, apprenticeships will not address the UK construction workforce loss even medium-term as it will take a long time, a change in culture, creating careers with development, upskilling/reskilling plus sustained investment over many years to raise the number of skilled trainers and the apprenticeship starts whilst cutting the high dropout rates. Skills are going to be the biggest barrier to government even getting close to any of its targets, whether it is 1.5 million new homes, more and better quality schools, hospitals, prisons, transport, water and energy infrastructure, as well as retrofitting 17 million homes (and non-residential buildings) in the UK below EPC rating C. #ukhousing #ukconstruction #ukbuilders #builders #constructionuk #buildersuk #ukbuilding #buildinguk #constructionindustry #constructionworkers #constructionworker #constructionwork #housebuilding #constructionskills #skillshortage #skillshortages #skills

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Noble Francis

Economics Director at the CPA, PhD in Applied Econometrics and Honorary Professor at the Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, UCL

1mo

And the issue of the age-demographic and loss of older UK construction workers is discussed in this post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fnoblefrancis_ukhousing-housing-ukhousingmarket-activity-7171051960266133504-uREO/

Steve Napper

Engineer specialising in Light Gauge Steel a form of MMC or Offsite construction. In addition, software developer around Tedds and Light Gauge Steel

1mo

Is construction waiting, without realising, for it’s ’Apple’ moment? Blackberry had the business phone sewn up, then Apple came in from left field and they lost most of their business! Is construction sleepwalking into a similar situation? Is the sheer lack of *skilled* staff, and raw material costs going to open up a big enough gap for offsite methods to slip in and fill the ever expanding gap?

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Keith Wright

I work with business owners, leaders and entrepreneurs to SAVE or MAKE them more MONEY from STRATEGIC PROCUREMENT

1mo

Is this a sustainable first "green shoot" though Noble, or a blip in your view?

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Peter Bill

Author and Journalist

1mo

There appears to be a good deal more elasticity in the construction labour market than skill-shortage doomsters suggest.

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Chris Mackenzie-Grieve

Proud to have been a trades person, a connoisseur of all things business, a mastery of Project Management and Procurement.Part time Procync. Experienced NED. Passionate about improvement and productivity.

1mo

Another great report and analysis.Noble Francis . With the rise in NI do you see the growth of self employment becoming more pronounced? Also is there any data on “new entrants” to the industry and a gender/ age breakdown? Thanks. 🙏

Gareth Evans

Chief Executive Officer at Smart Procurement Solutions Limited

1mo

Noble Francis fantastic report as always. Do you have any data that specifically sets out the nuclear and energy sector stats? I’d be keen to understand if there’s traction with strategic initiatives like #destinationnuclear and the National Nuclear Skills Plan targeting 40,000 by 2030!!! Clearly a significant challenge and it would be great to understand if these filter through with any real impitus / pace? https://nuclearskillsdeliverygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NSDG-National-Nuclear-Strategic-Plan-For-Skills.pdf

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Daniel Ginn - MRICS

Founder: Ginjo Construction Limited - Client & Contractor Services

1mo

A brief respite from the Deconstruction report that was released this week which implies a need for a refresh on industry branding and improved sentiment and understanding towards Construction roles. Not totally sure how the Budget will affect the curves you have posted given the burden imposed on the Employer. I assume entry level roles and thus, the key to hitting the skills gap, are going to be affected across the board IMO.

Alex Gosney FCIPS

CEO @ nutral. | Transform your workforce supply chain | B Corp Certified | BSc (Hons), MSt, FCIPS, MRICS

1mo

Thanks noble, I can only see the self-employment graph increasing with the upcoming changes. The question will be how much of it will be ‘forced’ due to cost constraints up and down the supply chain. A sure mixture to create bogus self-employment.

Dave Burns

Construction Director at Warmflame Developments LTD

1mo

Excellent analysis Noble, as always. Maybe one day the clowns in power will realise that without proper training and apprenticeships we are going to go nowhere. Major systematic changes required to train the workforce of the future.

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James Blake

Quantity Surveying and Commercial Management Student at Oxford Brookes

2w

Hi Noble, it's a really interesting set of information. I am doing my dissertation on the construction skill shortage and have looked at ONS, but I am still looking for the exact employment statistics. Could you please forward them to me? Many thanks.

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